Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.51 |
| 5Y Range | 3.89 – 10.13 |
| 5Y Selected | 7.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 63.68% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 84.97% |
| 10Y Range | 4.96 – 12.82 |
| 10Y Selected | 8.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 63.68% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 134.63% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9504 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9531 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7869 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9527 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6642 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5446 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3926 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1555 |
| Safety Score | 0.3986 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.87% | 10.11% | 9.34% | 8.58% | 7.82% | 7.05% | 6.29% | 5.53% | 4.76% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,854.21 | 3,142.72 | 3,436.41 | 3,731.29 | 4,023.00 | 4,306.79 | 4,577.71 | 4,830.72 | 5,060.84 | 5,263.27 |
| EBITDA | 203.54 | 224.11 | 245.06 | 266.09 | 286.89 | 307.13 | 326.45 | 344.49 | 360.90 | 375.33 |
| D&A | -49.59 | -54.60 | -59.70 | -64.83 | -69.89 | -74.82 | -79.53 | -83.93 | -87.93 | -91.44 |
| EBIT | 153.95 | 169.51 | 185.35 | 201.26 | 216.99 | 232.30 | 246.91 | 260.56 | 272.97 | 283.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -19.25 | -21.19 | -23.17 | -25.16 | -27.13 | -29.04 | -30.87 | -32.58 | -34.13 | -35.49 |
| NOPAT | 134.70 | 148.32 | 162.18 | 176.10 | 189.86 | 203.26 | 216.04 | 227.99 | 238.85 | 248.40 |
| Capital Expenditures | -101.18 | -111.40 | -121.81 | -132.27 | -142.61 | -152.67 | -162.27 | -171.24 | -179.39 | -186.57 |
| NWC Investment | -30.92 | -31.87 | -32.44 | -32.57 | -32.22 | -31.35 | -29.93 | -27.95 | -25.42 | -22.36 |
| (+) D&A | 49.59 | 54.60 | 59.70 | 64.83 | 69.89 | 74.82 | 79.53 | 83.93 | 87.93 | 91.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52.20 | 59.65 | 67.63 | 76.08 | 84.93 | 94.07 | 103.38 | 112.73 | 121.96 | 130.91 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 | 433,800,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51.88 | 57.98 | 61.82 | 65.39 | 68.64 | 71.48 | 73.87 | 75.74 | 77.05 | 77.77 | Raw: 2,690.90 2,108.74 |
Raw: 4,147.66 2,389.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,414.45 | 3,070.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.34 | -1.34 |
| Equity Value | 2,415.79 | 3,072.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 433.80 | 433.80 |
| Fair Value | $5.57 | $7.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 63.68% | 63.68% |
| Buy Price | $2.02 | $2.57 |
| Current Price | $1.51 | $1.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 33.95% | 70.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51.83 | 57.73 | 60.98 | 63.90 | 66.45 | 68.56 | 70.19 | 71.29 | 71.85 | 71.85 | Raw: 1,832.91 1,384.11 |
Raw: 2,825.19 1,496.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,685.01 | 2,151.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.34 | -1.34 |
| Equity Value | 1,686.36 | 2,152.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 433.80 | 433.80 |
| Fair Value | $3.89 | $4.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 63.68% | 63.68% |
| Buy Price | $1.41 | $1.80 |
| Current Price | $1.51 | $1.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.50% | 19.35% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51.93 | 58.24 | 62.68 | 66.93 | 70.92 | 74.56 | 77.78 | 80.50 | 82.67 | 84.24 | Raw: 5,016.41 4,081.00 |
Raw: 7,732.13 4,847.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,391.69 | 5,557.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1.34 | -1.34 |
| Equity Value | 4,393.03 | 5,559.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 433.80 | 433.80 |
| Fair Value | $10.13 | $12.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 63.68% | 63.68% |
| Buy Price | $3.68 | $4.65 |
| Current Price | $1.51 | $1.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 143.58% | 208.24% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,776.67 | 12,151.52 | 18,987.49 | 29,669.12 | 46,359.80 | 72,440.02 | 113,191.96 | 176,869.35 | 276,369.15 | 431,843.66 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% | 56.26% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.90 | 2.97 | 4.64 | 7.24 | 11.32 | 17.69 | 27.64 | 43.18 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.74 | 1.04 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 3.31 | 4.87 | 7.15 | 10.51 | 15.44 | 22.68 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.32 | 16.47% | $-3.22 | -344.21% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.89 | 10.55% | $3.89 | 105.83% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.79 | 11.60% | $1.13 | -36.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.92 | 13.09% | $-2.92 | -252.08% |
| $3.15 - $9.69 | 789 |
| $9.69 - $16.22 | 164 |
| $16.22 - $22.75 | 32 |
| $22.75 - $29.29 | 6 |
| $29.29 - $35.82 | 5 |
| $35.82 - $42.36 | 2 |
| $42.36 - $48.89 | 0 |
| $48.89 - $55.43 | 1 |
| $55.43 - $61.96 | 0 |
| $61.96 - $68.49 | 0 |
| $68.49 - $75.03 | 0 |
| $75.03 - $81.56 | 0 |
| $81.56 - $88.10 | 0 |
| $88.10 - $94.63 | 0 |
| $94.63 - $101.16 | 0 |
| $101.16 - $107.70 | 0 |
| $107.70 - $114.23 | 0 |
| $114.23 - $120.77 | 0 |
| $120.77 - $127.30 | 0 |
| $127.30 - $133.84 | 1 |