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Rici Healthcare Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$0.92
5Y Range5.95 – 13.48
5Y Selected9.72
(-) Safety Margin54.56%
5Y Buy Price$4.67
Upside (to Buy Price)407.44%
10Y Range6.45 – 14.11
10Y Selected10.28
(-) Safety Margin54.56%
10Y Buy Price$4.94
Upside (to Buy Price)436.74%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8735
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9763
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7396
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6116
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6113
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7302
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8998
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6057
Safety Score0.4804

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.78%10.03%9.28%8.52%7.77%7.02%6.26%5.51%4.75%4.00%
Revenue3,239.853,564.833,895.534,227.554,555.994,875.615,180.905,466.255,726.115,955.15
EBITDA1,018.261,120.401,224.331,328.681,431.911,532.361,628.311,718.001,799.671,871.65
D&A-458.22-504.18-550.95-597.91-644.36-689.56-732.74-773.10-809.85-842.24
EBIT560.04616.22673.38730.78787.55842.80895.57944.90989.821,029.41
Pro forma Taxes-190.93-210.08-229.57-249.13-268.49-287.33-305.32-322.13-337.45-350.94
NOPAT369.11406.14443.81481.64519.06555.48590.26622.77652.37678.47
Capital Expenditures-488.06-537.02-586.84-636.85-686.33-734.48-780.47-823.46-862.60-897.11
NWC Investment45.9147.3148.1448.3347.8146.5344.4441.5437.8333.34
(+) D&A458.22504.18550.95597.91644.36689.56732.74773.10809.85842.24
Free Cash Flow385.18420.61456.07491.03524.90557.09586.97613.95637.45656.95
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.001,590,324,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.83%Terminal Growth: 3.11%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.740.700.650.610.57
PV UFCF382.64408.28414.40417.36417.63414.90409.20400.64389.38375.63
Raw: 14,547.28
11,198.14
Raw: 18,206.79
10,072.05

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value13,238.4614,102.12
(-) Net Debt198.10198.10
Equity Value13,040.3613,904.02
(/) Shares Out1,590.321,590.32
Fair Value$8.20$8.74
(-) Safety Margin54.56%54.56%
Buy Price$3.73$3.97
Current Price$0.92$0.92
Upside (to Buy Price)305.00%331.82%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.83%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.710.660.610.570.53
PV UFCF382.29406.58408.84407.91404.38398.01388.90377.24363.23347.16
Raw: 10,317.14
7,654.20
Raw: 12,912.52
6,571.13

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,664.1910,455.67
(-) Net Debt198.10198.10
Equity Value9,466.0910,257.57
(/) Shares Out1,590.321,590.32
Fair Value$5.95$6.45
(-) Safety Margin54.56%54.56%
Buy Price$2.70$2.93
Current Price$0.92$0.92
Upside (to Buy Price)193.99%218.57%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.83%Terminal Growth: 3.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.730.690.660.62
PV UFCF383.00410.02420.09427.13431.44432.67430.76425.74417.68406.74
Raw: 24,492.58
19,569.19
Raw: 30,653.94
18,448.75

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value21,640.8822,634.02
(-) Net Debt198.10198.10
Equity Value21,442.7822,435.92
(/) Shares Out1,590.321,590.32
Fair Value$13.48$14.11
(-) Safety Margin54.56%54.56%
Buy Price$6.13$6.41
Current Price$0.92$0.92
Upside (to Buy Price)565.96%596.80%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$0.92
WACC Used6.8%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH73.69%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue9,040.8515,702.8427,273.9247,371.4582,278.40142,907.50248,212.81431,115.23748,794.311,300,563.95
Constant Implied Growth73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%73.69%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.901.572.734.748.2314.2924.8243.1174.88130.06
Discount Factor0.950.850.800.740.700.650.610.570.540.50
Present Value of Implied FCF0.861.332.173.535.749.3315.1624.6540.0865.16

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$0.7910.66%$-3.69-569.24%
20182018-12-31$1.5413.12%$-4.39-384.76%
20172017-12-31$1.7214.17%$-6.37-470.15%
20162016-12-31$1.7519.18%$1.68-3.80%
20152015-12-31$1.9815.81%$0.96-51.62%
20142014-12-31$1.8915.62%$-0.68-135.94%
20132013-12-31$1.8418.65%$0.33-81.86%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$9.93
Median
$8.71
10th Percentile
$6.37
90th Percentile
$13.54

Fair Value Distribution

$4.26 - $12.93
880
$12.93 - $21.60
96
$21.60 - $30.27
13
$30.27 - $38.94
6
$38.94 - $47.61
3
$47.61 - $56.28
1
$56.28 - $64.94
0
$64.94 - $73.61
0
$73.61 - $82.28
0
$82.28 - $90.95
0
$90.95 - $99.62
0
$99.62 - $108.29
0
$108.29 - $116.96
0
$116.96 - $125.63
0
$125.63 - $134.29
0
$134.29 - $142.96
0
$142.96 - $151.63
0
$151.63 - $160.30
0
$160.30 - $168.97
0
$168.97 - $177.64
1