Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $27.95 |
| 5Y Range | 53.41 – 111.40 |
| 5Y Selected | 82.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $15.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.58% |
| 10Y Range | 60.11 – 122.27 |
| 10Y Selected | 91.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $16.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.77% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9646 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0207 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9230 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5267 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9056 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4065 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3995 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0109 |
| Safety Score | 0.1846 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.82% | 6.50% | 6.19% | 5.88% | 5.57% | 5.25% | 4.94% | 4.63% | 4.31% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,221.19 | 3,430.71 | 3,643.12 | 3,857.28 | 4,071.94 | 4,285.81 | 4,497.49 | 4,705.55 | 4,908.51 | 5,104.85 |
| EBITDA | 1,017.88 | 1,084.08 | 1,151.20 | 1,218.87 | 1,286.71 | 1,354.29 | 1,421.18 | 1,486.92 | 1,551.05 | 1,613.10 |
| D&A | -482.94 | -514.35 | -546.20 | -578.30 | -610.49 | -642.55 | -674.29 | -705.48 | -735.91 | -765.34 |
| EBIT | 534.94 | 569.73 | 605.01 | 640.57 | 676.22 | 711.74 | 746.89 | 781.44 | 815.15 | 847.75 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -104.54 | -111.34 | -118.24 | -125.19 | -132.15 | -139.09 | -145.96 | -152.72 | -159.30 | -165.68 |
| NOPAT | 430.40 | 458.39 | 486.77 | 515.38 | 544.07 | 572.64 | 600.93 | 628.73 | 655.84 | 682.08 |
| Capital Expenditures | -476.83 | -507.85 | -539.29 | -570.99 | -602.77 | -634.43 | -665.77 | -696.57 | -726.61 | -755.67 |
| NWC Investment | -49.00 | -49.94 | -50.63 | -51.04 | -51.17 | -50.97 | -50.45 | -49.59 | -48.37 | -46.80 |
| (+) D&A | 482.94 | 514.35 | 546.20 | 578.30 | 610.49 | 642.55 | 674.29 | 705.48 | 735.91 | 765.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 387.50 | 414.95 | 443.05 | 471.65 | 500.62 | 529.79 | 558.99 | 588.05 | 616.77 | 644.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 | 165,957,380.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 385.05 | 403.29 | 404.17 | 403.60 | 402.10 | 399.41 | 395.57 | 390.59 | 384.53 | 377.42 | Raw: 12,748.69 9,920.67 |
Raw: 16,424.33 9,311.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,918.88 | 13,257.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 36.56 | 36.56 |
| Equity Value | 11,882.32 | 13,220.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.96 | 165.96 |
| Fair Value | $71.60 | $79.66 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $10.97 | $12.20 |
| Current Price | $27.95 | $27.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.76% | -56.33% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 384.69 | 401.60 | 398.73 | 394.43 | 389.31 | 383.11 | 375.90 | 367.72 | 358.64 | 348.74 | Raw: 9,242.51 6,931.03 |
Raw: 11,907.26 6,208.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,899.79 | 10,011.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | 36.56 | 36.56 |
| Equity Value | 8,863.23 | 9,975.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.96 | 165.96 |
| Fair Value | $53.41 | $60.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $8.18 | $9.21 |
| Current Price | $27.95 | $27.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.73% | -67.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 385.41 | 405.01 | 409.73 | 413.07 | 415.44 | 416.57 | 416.47 | 415.13 | 412.55 | 408.76 | Raw: 20,419.85 16,494.79 |
Raw: 26,307.20 16,229.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 18,523.45 | 20,328.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 36.56 | 36.56 |
| Equity Value | 18,486.89 | 20,291.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 165.96 | 165.96 |
| Fair Value | $111.40 | $122.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.68% | 84.68% |
| Buy Price | $17.07 | $18.73 |
| Current Price | $27.95 | $27.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.94% | -32.98% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,769.63 | 11,714.64 | 23,785.35 | 48,293.68 | 98,055.26 | 199,090.96 | 404,233.40 | 820,753.67 | 1,666,454.56 | 3,383,561.86 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% | 103.04% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.58 | 1.17 | 2.38 | 4.83 | 9.81 | 19.91 | 40.42 | 82.08 | 166.65 | 338.36 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.55 | 1.00 | 1.91 | 3.64 | 6.94 | 13.22 | 25.20 | 48.03 | 91.53 | 174.45 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.82 | 13.38% | $-21.37 | -297.49% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $10.86 | 5.39% | $-14.14 | -230.19% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $12.83 | -1.79% | $-6.90 | -153.76% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $12.07 | -8.78% | $18.30 | 51.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $7.35 | -8.23% | $10.87 | 47.84% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $8.25 | -1.51% | $2.77 | -66.40% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $9.26 | 0.10% | $4.64 | -49.89% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $6.98 | -0.22% | $16.20 | 132.03% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $7.53 | -4.76% | $-35.66 | -573.54% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.20 | -9.79% | $-25.46 | -327.29% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.87 | -11.28% | $-11.33 | -171.40% |
| $43.91 - $61.12 | 131 |
| $61.12 - $78.33 | 344 |
| $78.33 - $95.54 | 270 |
| $95.54 - $112.75 | 125 |
| $112.75 - $129.96 | 54 |
| $129.96 - $147.17 | 33 |
| $147.17 - $164.38 | 18 |
| $164.38 - $181.59 | 10 |
| $181.59 - $198.80 | 2 |
| $198.80 - $216.01 | 3 |
| $216.01 - $233.22 | 2 |
| $233.22 - $250.43 | 3 |
| $250.43 - $267.64 | 0 |
| $267.64 - $284.85 | 0 |
| $284.85 - $302.06 | 0 |
| $302.06 - $319.26 | 1 |
| $319.26 - $336.47 | 1 |
| $336.47 - $353.68 | 1 |
| $353.68 - $370.89 | 1 |
| $370.89 - $388.10 | 1 |