Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5,960.00 |
| 5Y Range | 104,006.94 – 226,556.20 |
| 5Y Selected | 165,281.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.94% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $39,651.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 565.29% |
| 10Y Range | 371,062.35 – 836,879.25 |
| 10Y Selected | 603,970.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.94% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $144,892.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,331.08% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9218 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9378 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0075 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0188 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8206 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8867 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0042 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0022 |
| Safety Score | 0.2399 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 38.76% | 34.89% | 31.03% | 27.17% | 23.31% | 19.45% | 15.59% | 11.72% | 7.86% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,108,182.49 | 13,635,354.15 | 17,866,737.85 | 22,721,249.63 | 28,017,320.47 | 33,465,879.91 | 38,681,648.84 | 43,216,513.44 | 46,614,099.68 | 48,478,663.67 |
| EBITDA | 701,343.06 | 946,071.26 | 1,239,660.30 | 1,576,484.27 | 1,943,945.24 | 2,321,986.43 | 2,683,875.76 | 2,998,521.42 | 3,234,258.51 | 3,363,628.85 |
| D&A | -268,222.79 | -361,817.05 | -474,097.72 | -602,913.23 | -743,445.61 | -888,024.30 | -1,026,425.85 | -1,146,759.45 | -1,236,915.13 | -1,286,391.74 |
| EBIT | 433,120.27 | 584,254.22 | 765,562.58 | 973,571.04 | 1,200,499.64 | 1,433,962.13 | 1,657,449.91 | 1,851,761.97 | 1,997,343.38 | 2,077,237.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8,718.33 | -11,760.53 | -15,410.10 | -19,597.13 | -24,165.01 | -28,864.40 | -33,363.01 | -37,274.35 | -40,204.77 | -41,812.96 |
| NOPAT | 424,401.94 | 572,493.69 | 750,152.48 | 953,973.91 | 1,176,334.63 | 1,405,097.73 | 1,624,086.90 | 1,814,487.63 | 1,957,138.61 | 2,035,424.16 |
| Capital Expenditures | -352,757.96 | -475,850.10 | -623,518.02 | -792,932.02 | -977,755.67 | -1,167,900.90 | -1,349,922.15 | -1,508,181.02 | -1,626,750.86 | -1,691,820.89 |
| NWC Investment | -344,705.44 | -430,640.12 | -516,618.91 | -592,697.99 | -646,608.90 | -665,226.57 | -636,804.66 | -553,671.56 | -414,818.75 | -227,648.70 |
| (+) D&A | 268,222.79 | 361,817.05 | 474,097.72 | 602,913.23 | 743,445.61 | 888,024.30 | 1,026,425.85 | 1,146,759.45 | 1,236,915.13 | 1,286,391.74 |
| Free Cash Flow | -4,838.67 | 27,820.52 | 84,113.27 | 171,257.13 | 295,415.67 | 459,994.57 | 663,785.93 | 899,394.50 | 1,152,484.13 | 1,402,346.29 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 | 42,021,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | -4,804.92 | 26,957.89 | 75,995.32 | 144,167.93 | 231,875.64 | 336,647.91 | 452,952.74 | 572,238.00 | 683,696.00 | 775,684.25 | Raw: 7,313,213.63 5,542,818.72 |
Raw: 34,716,025.86 18,542,168.23 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,017,010.58 | 21,837,578.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 863.48 | 863.48 |
| Equity Value | 6,016,147.09 | 21,836,715.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.02 | 42.02 |
| Fair Value | $143,170.01 | $519,661.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.94% | 77.94% |
| Buy Price | $31,583.30 | $114,637.43 |
| Current Price | $5,960.00 | $5,960.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 429.92% | 1,823.45% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | -4,800.46 | 26,845.54 | 74,979.49 | 140,913.76 | 224,548.04 | 322,997.73 | 430,572.06 | 538,938.31 | 637,961.99 | 717,110.61 | Raw: 5,350,422.23 3,908,852.82 |
Raw: 25,398,601.22 12,483,207.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,371,339.18 | 15,593,274.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 863.48 | 863.48 |
| Equity Value | 4,370,475.70 | 15,592,411.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.02 | 42.02 |
| Fair Value | $104,006.94 | $371,062.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.94% | 77.94% |
| Buy Price | $22,943.93 | $81,856.35 |
| Current Price | $5,960.00 | $5,960.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 284.97% | 1,273.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | -4,809.43 | 27,071.77 | 77,034.62 | 147,528.80 | 239,514.40 | 351,011.04 | 476,722.98 | 607,936.54 | 733,183.94 | 839,659.55 | Raw: 11,486,238.28 9,034,641.20 |
Raw: 54,525,488.40 31,672,512.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,520,981.36 | 35,167,366.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | 863.48 | 863.48 |
| Equity Value | 9,520,117.88 | 35,166,502.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 42.02 | 42.02 |
| Fair Value | $226,556.20 | $836,879.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.94% | 77.94% |
| Buy Price | $49,978.30 | $184,615.56 |
| Current Price | $5,960.00 | $5,960.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 738.56% | 2,997.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,423,106.15 | 14,549,979.29 | 20,310,826.20 | 28,352,594.36 | 39,578,380.47 | 55,248,848.86 | 77,123,805.07 | 107,659,823.35 | 150,286,121.82 | 209,789,666.27 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% | 39.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1,042.31 | 1,455.00 | 2,031.08 | 2,835.26 | 3,957.84 | 5,524.88 | 7,712.38 | 10,765.98 | 15,028.61 | 20,978.97 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 983.48 | 1,224.85 | 1,594.22 | 2,074.99 | 2,700.74 | 3,515.20 | 4,575.27 | 5,955.02 | 7,750.87 | 10,088.28 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3,320.00 | 80.44% | $-17,004.29 | -612.18% |
| $263,382.68 - $398,833.15 | 142 |
| $398,833.15 - $534,283.62 | 365 |
| $534,283.62 - $669,734.09 | 262 |
| $669,734.09 - $805,184.56 | 123 |
| $805,184.56 - $940,635.03 | 54 |
| $940,635.03 - $1,076,085.50 | 20 |
| $1,076,085.50 - $1,211,535.97 | 11 |
| $1,211,535.97 - $1,346,986.44 | 10 |
| $1,346,986.44 - $1,482,436.91 | 8 |
| $1,482,436.91 - $1,617,887.37 | 3 |
| $1,617,887.37 - $1,753,337.84 | 0 |
| $1,753,337.84 - $1,888,788.31 | 0 |
| $1,888,788.31 - $2,024,238.78 | 1 |
| $2,024,238.78 - $2,159,689.25 | 0 |
| $2,159,689.25 - $2,295,139.72 | 0 |
| $2,295,139.72 - $2,430,590.19 | 0 |
| $2,430,590.19 - $2,566,040.66 | 0 |
| $2,566,040.66 - $2,701,491.13 | 0 |
| $2,701,491.13 - $2,836,941.60 | 0 |
| $2,836,941.60 - $2,972,392.07 | 1 |