Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.65 |
| 5Y Range | 6.83 – 16.96 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.86% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -41.54% |
| 10Y Range | 6.98 – 16.61 |
| 10Y Selected | 11.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.86% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -42.03% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7140 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8250 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2674 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5730 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2741 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5807 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0099 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0176 |
| Safety Score | 0.2777 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.62% | -0.11% | 0.41% | 0.92% | 1.43% | 1.95% | 2.46% | 2.97% | 3.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,037.28 | 2,035.09 | 2,043.36 | 2,062.15 | 2,091.70 | 2,132.41 | 2,184.86 | 2,249.82 | 2,328.26 | 2,421.39 |
| EBITDA | 230.64 | 230.39 | 231.32 | 233.45 | 236.80 | 241.41 | 247.34 | 254.70 | 263.58 | 274.12 |
| D&A | -39.20 | -39.15 | -39.31 | -39.67 | -40.24 | -41.03 | -42.04 | -43.28 | -44.79 | -46.59 |
| EBIT | 191.44 | 191.23 | 192.01 | 193.78 | 196.55 | 200.38 | 205.31 | 211.41 | 218.78 | 227.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -42.82 | -42.77 | -42.95 | -43.34 | -43.96 | -44.82 | -45.92 | -47.29 | -48.93 | -50.89 |
| NOPAT | 148.62 | 148.46 | 149.06 | 150.44 | 152.59 | 155.56 | 159.39 | 164.13 | 169.85 | 176.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -44.23 | -44.19 | -44.37 | -44.77 | -45.41 | -46.30 | -47.44 | -48.85 | -50.55 | -52.57 |
| NWC Investment | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| (+) D&A | 39.20 | 39.15 | 39.31 | 39.67 | 40.24 | 41.03 | 42.04 | 43.28 | 44.79 | 46.59 |
| Free Cash Flow | 143.53 | 143.42 | 144.05 | 145.42 | 147.55 | 150.47 | 154.22 | 158.86 | 164.45 | 171.08 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 | 451,352,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 142.65 | 139.53 | 131.82 | 125.10 | 119.40 | 114.54 | 110.42 | 106.99 | 104.18 | 101.95 | Raw: 4,614.67 3,621.72 |
Raw: 5,350.37 3,092.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,280.22 | 4,288.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | -47.98 | -47.98 |
| Equity Value | 4,328.20 | 4,336.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 451.35 | 451.35 |
| Fair Value | $9.59 | $9.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.86% | 75.86% |
| Buy Price | $2.31 | $2.32 |
| Current Price | $5.65 | $5.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.03% | -58.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 142.52 | 138.94 | 130.04 | 122.25 | 115.60 | 109.85 | 104.92 | 100.71 | 97.15 | 94.19 | Raw: 3,155.36 2,386.28 |
Raw: 3,658.41 1,944.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,035.63 | 3,100.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | -47.98 | -47.98 |
| Equity Value | 3,083.61 | 3,148.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 451.35 | 451.35 |
| Fair Value | $6.83 | $6.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.86% | 75.86% |
| Buy Price | $1.65 | $1.68 |
| Current Price | $5.65 | $5.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.81% | -70.20% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 142.79 | 140.12 | 133.64 | 128.04 | 123.37 | 119.47 | 116.27 | 113.73 | 111.79 | 110.44 | Raw: 8,514.42 6,937.18 |
Raw: 9,871.85 6,209.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,605.14 | 7,449.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | -47.98 | -47.98 |
| Equity Value | 7,653.13 | 7,497.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 451.35 | 451.35 |
| Fair Value | $16.96 | $16.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.86% | 75.86% |
| Buy Price | $4.09 | $4.01 |
| Current Price | $5.65 | $5.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.55% | -29.03% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,377.27 | 13,465.85 | 24,579.45 | 44,865.30 | 81,893.42 | 149,481.48 | 272,851.14 | 498,039.93 | 909,080.94 | 1,659,361.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.74 | 1.35 | 2.46 | 4.49 | 8.19 | 14.95 | 27.29 | 49.80 | 90.91 | 165.94 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.71 | 1.16 | 1.99 | 3.42 | 5.86 | 10.07 | 17.29 | 29.68 | 50.96 | 87.50 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $8.67 | -40.76% | $0.92 | -89.44% |
| $2.99 - $6.43 | 44 |
| $6.43 - $9.88 | 492 |
| $9.88 - $13.32 | 285 |
| $13.32 - $16.77 | 83 |
| $16.77 - $20.21 | 45 |
| $20.21 - $23.66 | 18 |
| $23.66 - $27.10 | 8 |
| $27.10 - $30.55 | 10 |
| $30.55 - $33.99 | 4 |
| $33.99 - $37.44 | 2 |
| $37.44 - $40.89 | 2 |
| $40.89 - $44.33 | 2 |
| $44.33 - $47.78 | 0 |
| $47.78 - $51.22 | 1 |
| $51.22 - $54.67 | 3 |
| $54.67 - $58.11 | 0 |
| $58.11 - $61.56 | 0 |
| $61.56 - $65.00 | 0 |
| $65.00 - $68.45 | 0 |
| $68.45 - $71.89 | 1 |