Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.61 |
| 5Y Range | 0.51 – 0.98 |
| 5Y Selected | 0.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.06% |
| 10Y Range | 0.51 – 0.94 |
| 10Y Selected | 0.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.30% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2408 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2493 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0881 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3154 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0542 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4012 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0048 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0935 |
| Safety Score | 0.1929 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.42% | -0.82% | -0.21% | 0.39% | 0.99% | 1.59% | 2.19% | 2.80% | 3.40% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,193.76 | 1,184.01 | 1,181.46 | 1,186.04 | 1,197.78 | 1,216.84 | 1,243.54 | 1,278.30 | 1,321.74 | 1,374.61 |
| EBITDA | 106.80 | 105.92 | 105.70 | 106.11 | 107.16 | 108.86 | 111.25 | 114.36 | 118.25 | 122.98 |
| D&A | -49.56 | -49.15 | -49.05 | -49.24 | -49.73 | -50.52 | -51.63 | -53.07 | -54.87 | -57.07 |
| EBIT | 57.24 | 56.77 | 56.65 | 56.87 | 57.43 | 58.34 | 59.62 | 61.29 | 63.37 | 65.91 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8.78 | -8.71 | -8.69 | -8.72 | -8.81 | -8.95 | -9.15 | -9.40 | -9.72 | -10.11 |
| NOPAT | 48.46 | 48.06 | 47.96 | 48.14 | 48.62 | 49.39 | 50.48 | 51.89 | 53.65 | 55.80 |
| Capital Expenditures | -83.38 | -82.70 | -82.53 | -82.85 | -83.67 | -85.00 | -86.86 | -89.29 | -92.32 | -96.02 |
| NWC Investment | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.06 | -0.12 | -0.30 | -0.49 | -0.68 | -0.89 | -1.11 | -1.35 |
| (+) D&A | 49.56 | 49.15 | 49.05 | 49.24 | 49.73 | 50.52 | 51.63 | 53.07 | 54.87 | 57.07 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15.07 | 14.76 | 14.55 | 14.42 | 14.38 | 14.43 | 14.56 | 14.78 | 15.09 | 15.50 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 | 532,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 12/31/24 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/1/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 14.98 | 14.36 | 13.31 | 12.40 | 11.63 | 10.98 | 10.42 | 9.95 | 9.56 | 9.23 | Raw: 350.03 274.60 |
Raw: 377.29 217.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 341.28 | 334.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | -10.40 | -10.40 |
| Equity Value | 351.67 | 345.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 532.00 | 532.00 |
| Fair Value | $0.66 | $0.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $0.10 | $0.10 |
| Current Price | $1.61 | $1.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.56% | -93.68% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 14.96 | 14.30 | 13.13 | 12.12 | 11.26 | 10.53 | 9.90 | 9.37 | 8.91 | 8.53 | Raw: 256.59 193.97 |
Raw: 276.58 146.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 259.75 | 259.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | -10.40 | -10.40 |
| Equity Value | 270.14 | 270.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 532.00 | 532.00 |
| Fair Value | $0.51 | $0.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $0.08 | $0.08 |
| Current Price | $1.61 | $1.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.05% | -95.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 14.99 | 14.42 | 13.49 | 12.69 | 12.02 | 11.45 | 10.97 | 10.58 | 10.25 | 10.00 | Raw: 547.43 445.83 |
Raw: 590.06 370.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 513.45 | 491.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | -10.40 | -10.40 |
| Equity Value | 523.84 | 502.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 532.00 | 532.00 |
| Fair Value | $0.98 | $0.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.31% | 84.31% |
| Buy Price | $0.15 | $0.15 |
| Current Price | $1.61 | $1.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.40% | -90.80% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,908.21 | 6,788.08 | 11,790.07 | 20,477.90 | 35,567.61 | 61,776.57 | 107,298.34 | 186,364.06 | 323,691.53 | 562,212.52 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% | 73.69% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.39 | 0.68 | 1.18 | 2.05 | 3.56 | 6.18 | 10.73 | 18.64 | 32.37 | 56.22 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.38 | 0.58 | 0.95 | 1.56 | 2.55 | 4.16 | 6.79 | 11.10 | 18.13 | 29.61 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.10 | -3.47% | $2.49 | 126.55% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.10 | -2.53% | $0.65 | -41.36% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.10 | 3.38% | $-3.45 | -413.41% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.10 | 5.73% | $3.54 | 221.51% |
| $0.41 - $0.49 | 67 |
| $0.49 - $0.58 | 240 |
| $0.58 - $0.66 | 225 |
| $0.66 - $0.75 | 186 |
| $0.75 - $0.84 | 115 |
| $0.84 - $0.92 | 67 |
| $0.92 - $1.01 | 32 |
| $1.01 - $1.09 | 25 |
| $1.09 - $1.18 | 16 |
| $1.18 - $1.27 | 9 |
| $1.27 - $1.35 | 5 |
| $1.35 - $1.44 | 6 |
| $1.44 - $1.52 | 4 |
| $1.52 - $1.61 | 1 |
| $1.61 - $1.70 | 1 |
| $1.70 - $1.78 | 0 |
| $1.78 - $1.87 | 0 |
| $1.87 - $1.95 | 0 |
| $1.95 - $2.04 | 0 |
| $2.04 - $2.13 | 0 |