Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $32.74 |
| 5Y Range | 46.06 – 115.82 |
| 5Y Selected | 80.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $29.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -9.71% |
| 10Y Range | 53.01 – 130.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 91.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $33.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2.09% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9353 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8986 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3027 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6508 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3503 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6335 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0371 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2912 |
| Safety Score | 0.3652 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.48% | 9.76% | 9.04% | 8.32% | 7.60% | 6.88% | 6.16% | 5.44% | 4.72% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 172,541.59 | 189,387.91 | 206,514.60 | 223,702.24 | 240,708.69 | 257,273.83 | 273,125.40 | 287,985.90 | 301,580.14 | 313,643.35 |
| EBITDA | 42,612.09 | 46,772.58 | 51,002.31 | 55,247.09 | 59,447.13 | 63,538.17 | 67,452.99 | 71,123.04 | 74,480.37 | 77,459.59 |
| D&A | -11,669.57 | -12,808.94 | -13,967.28 | -15,129.74 | -16,279.94 | -17,400.30 | -18,472.39 | -19,477.46 | -20,396.88 | -21,212.76 |
| EBIT | 30,942.52 | 33,963.64 | 37,035.03 | 40,117.35 | 43,167.18 | 46,137.87 | 48,980.59 | 51,645.58 | 54,083.49 | 56,246.83 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -7,667.47 | -8,416.10 | -9,177.18 | -9,940.97 | -10,696.71 | -11,432.84 | -12,137.26 | -12,797.63 | -13,401.74 | -13,937.81 |
| NOPAT | 23,275.05 | 25,547.54 | 27,857.85 | 30,176.38 | 32,470.47 | 34,705.03 | 36,843.34 | 38,847.95 | 40,681.75 | 42,309.02 |
| Capital Expenditures | -17,332.92 | -19,025.25 | -20,745.73 | -22,472.34 | -24,180.75 | -25,844.83 | -27,437.22 | -28,930.05 | -30,295.68 | -31,507.51 |
| NWC Investment | -1,752.52 | -1,803.20 | -1,833.20 | -1,839.73 | -1,820.33 | -1,773.10 | -1,696.72 | -1,590.64 | -1,455.10 | -1,291.22 |
| (+) D&A | 11,669.57 | 12,808.94 | 13,967.28 | 15,129.74 | 16,279.94 | 17,400.30 | 18,472.39 | 19,477.46 | 20,396.88 | 21,212.76 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15,859.18 | 17,528.04 | 19,246.19 | 20,994.05 | 22,749.33 | 24,487.41 | 26,181.79 | 27,804.72 | 29,327.85 | 30,723.04 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 | 9,620,406,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,760.85 | 17,033.67 | 17,575.52 | 18,015.58 | 18,344.64 | 18,555.48 | 18,643.06 | 18,604.80 | 18,440.61 | 18,152.99 | Raw: 698,736.14 546,195.58 |
Raw: 943,645.44 540,489.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 632,925.85 | 719,616.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,220.38 | 4,220.38 |
| Equity Value | 628,705.47 | 715,395.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9,620.41 | 9,620.41 |
| Fair Value | $65.35 | $74.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.87% | 66.87% |
| Buy Price | $21.65 | $24.64 |
| Current Price | $32.74 | $32.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -33.87% | -24.75% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,746.12 | 16,960.54 | 17,337.15 | 17,605.80 | 17,760.48 | 17,797.36 | 17,714.90 | 17,513.96 | 17,197.80 | 16,771.95 | Raw: 480,532.65 361,969.80 |
Raw: 648,960.91 341,822.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 447,379.89 | 514,228.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,220.38 | 4,220.38 |
| Equity Value | 443,159.51 | 510,008.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9,620.41 | 9,620.41 |
| Fair Value | $46.06 | $53.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.87% | 66.87% |
| Buy Price | $15.26 | $17.56 |
| Current Price | $32.74 | $32.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.39% | -46.36% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 15,775.74 | 17,107.81 | 17,819.47 | 18,438.91 | 18,953.81 | 19,353.51 | 19,629.32 | 19,774.86 | 19,786.27 | 19,662.43 | Raw: 1,269,741.39 1,030,356.86 |
Raw: 1,714,789.91 1,068,878.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,118,452.59 | 1,255,180.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,220.38 | 4,220.38 |
| Equity Value | 1,114,232.20 | 1,250,959.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9,620.41 | 9,620.41 |
| Fair Value | $115.82 | $130.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.87% | 66.87% |
| Buy Price | $38.37 | $43.08 |
| Current Price | $32.74 | $32.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 17.20% | 31.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 589,748.55 | 1,139,974.15 | 2,203,551.10 | 4,259,427.70 | 8,233,403.03 | 15,915,031.36 | 30,763,491.41 | 59,465,318.17 | 114,945,472.81 | 222,187,690.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% | 93.30% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 58.97 | 114.00 | 220.36 | 425.94 | 823.34 | 1,591.50 | 3,076.35 | 5,946.53 | 11,494.55 | 22,218.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 56.46 | 97.82 | 177.69 | 322.76 | 586.27 | 1,064.91 | 1,934.33 | 3,513.56 | 6,382.11 | 11,592.61 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $4.20 | 11.28% | $27.40 | 552.28% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.91 | 10.52% | $6.25 | 59.85% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.41 | 8.43% | $63.35 | 754.90% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.10 | -1.17% | $-26.32 | -531.43% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.86 | 0.47% | $-30.86 | -899.48% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.16 | 8.51% | $-4.86 | -216.94% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.17 | 16.74% | $-75.62 | -1,913.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.27 | 22.19% | $-30.67 | -1,037.95% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.38 | 17.65% | $-14.01 | -514.52% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.69 | 14.10% | $10.97 | 63.97% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6.94 | 15.66% | $6.12 | -11.74% |
| $35.94 - $1,895.42 | 999 |
| $1,895.42 - $3,754.90 | 0 |
| $3,754.90 - $5,614.38 | 0 |
| $5,614.38 - $7,473.86 | 0 |
| $7,473.86 - $9,333.34 | 0 |
| $9,333.34 - $11,192.81 | 0 |
| $11,192.81 - $13,052.29 | 0 |
| $13,052.29 - $14,911.77 | 0 |
| $14,911.77 - $16,771.25 | 0 |
| $16,771.25 - $18,630.73 | 0 |
| $18,630.73 - $20,490.21 | 0 |
| $20,490.21 - $22,349.69 | 0 |
| $22,349.69 - $24,209.17 | 0 |
| $24,209.17 - $26,068.64 | 0 |
| $26,068.64 - $27,928.12 | 0 |
| $27,928.12 - $29,787.60 | 0 |
| $29,787.60 - $31,647.08 | 0 |
| $31,647.08 - $33,506.56 | 0 |
| $33,506.56 - $35,366.04 | 0 |
| $35,366.04 - $37,225.52 | 1 |