Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

361 Degrees International Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$5.87
5Y Range6.41 – 14.98
5Y Selected10.70
(-) Safety Margin71.11%
5Y Buy Price$3.43
Upside (to Buy Price)-41.52%
10Y Range8.59 – 20.16
10Y Selected14.37
(-) Safety Margin71.11%
10Y Buy Price$4.61
Upside (to Buy Price)-21.44%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9792
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7670
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9971
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6429
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9554
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6754
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0754
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1885
Safety Score0.3209

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth12.51%11.57%10.62%9.68%8.73%7.78%6.84%5.89%4.95%4.00%
Revenue11,333.9712,644.9513,987.9715,341.3216,680.5017,978.8119,208.1220,339.8121,345.7822,199.62
EBITDA1,128.951,259.531,393.301,528.111,661.501,790.821,913.272,025.992,126.192,211.24
D&A-163.82-182.77-202.18-221.75-241.10-259.87-277.64-293.99-308.53-320.88
EBIT965.121,076.761,191.121,306.361,420.401,530.951,635.631,732.001,817.661,890.37
Pro forma Taxes-292.74-326.60-361.29-396.24-430.83-464.36-496.11-525.34-551.33-573.38
NOPAT672.39750.16829.83910.12989.571,066.591,139.521,206.661,266.331,316.99
Capital Expenditures-159.28-177.70-196.58-215.60-234.42-252.66-269.94-285.84-299.98-311.98
NWC Investment-296.08-307.95-315.47-317.90-314.57-304.97-288.76-265.83-236.30-200.56
(+) D&A163.82182.77202.18221.75241.10259.87277.64293.99308.53320.88
Free Cash Flow380.85447.28519.97598.37681.68768.82858.45948.971,038.591,125.32
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.252,067,691,749.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.51%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.670.620.59
PV UFCF378.45434.76474.52512.36548.02580.29608.33631.37648.75659.96
Raw: 19,876.83
15,483.32
Raw: 32,812.79
18,646.02

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,831.4324,122.83
(-) Net Debt-520.04-520.04
Equity Value18,351.4724,642.88
(/) Shares Out2,067.692,067.69
Fair Value$8.88$11.92
(-) Safety Margin71.11%71.11%
Buy Price$2.56$3.44
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-56.32%-41.34%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.51%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF378.10432.94468.13500.72530.58556.60578.07594.38605.06609.79
Raw: 13,883.61
10,421.92
Raw: 22,919.13
11,977.82

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,732.3817,232.20
(-) Net Debt-520.04-520.04
Equity Value13,252.4317,752.24
(/) Shares Out2,067.692,067.69
Fair Value$6.41$8.59
(-) Safety Margin71.11%71.11%
Buy Price$1.85$2.48
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-68.46%-57.75%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.51%Terminal Growth: 3.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF378.81436.61481.05524.39566.20605.22640.48671.04696.05714.78
Raw: 34,719.67
28,074.72
Raw: 57,315.42
35,442.24

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value30,461.7841,156.89
(-) Net Debt-520.04-520.04
Equity Value30,981.8241,676.93
(/) Shares Out2,067.692,067.69
Fair Value$14.98$20.16
(-) Safety Margin71.11%71.11%
Buy Price$4.33$5.82
Current Price$5.87$5.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-26.26%-0.80%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$5.87
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH82.79%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue36,356.6966,455.69121,473.08222,038.32405,859.60741,863.001,356,037.172,478,674.394,530,721.488,281,619.07
Constant Implied Growth82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%82.79%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.646.6512.1522.2040.5974.19135.60247.87453.07828.16
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.750.710.670.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF3.485.699.7716.7628.7649.3684.70145.37249.47428.12

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.2717.01%$9.59655.12%
20182018-12-31$1.4311.11%$2.5074.80%
20172017-12-31$2.256.40%$7.35226.60%
20162016-12-31$2.692.68%$8.10200.98%
20152015-12-31$2.441.29%$0.32-86.99%
20142014-12-31$1.664.99%$7.33341.47%
20132013-12-31$1.607.13%$3.59124.62%
20122012-12-31$1.789.80%$15.63778.13%
20112011-06-30$3.964.57%$1.96-50.39%
20102010-06-30$4.86-5.38%$5.6516.22%
20092009-06-30$3.44-6.34%$4.1721.29%
20082008-06-30$3.43-5.36%$0.01-99.70%
20072007-06-30$3.8019.38%$-1.20-131.68%
20062006-06-30$4.0055.96%$-3.20-179.97%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$13.42
Median
$11.68
10th Percentile
$8.41
90th Percentile
$20.39

Fair Value Distribution

$6.27 - $10.12
319
$10.12 - $13.96
387
$13.96 - $17.81
139
$17.81 - $21.65
74
$21.65 - $25.50
35
$25.50 - $29.34
20
$29.34 - $33.19
7
$33.19 - $37.03
3
$37.03 - $40.88
2
$40.88 - $44.72
7
$44.72 - $48.57
2
$48.57 - $52.41
0
$52.41 - $56.26
2
$56.26 - $60.10
1
$60.10 - $63.95
1
$63.95 - $67.79
0
$67.79 - $71.64
0
$71.64 - $75.48
0
$75.48 - $79.33
0
$79.33 - $83.17
1