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PW Medtech Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.33
5Y Range-1.94 – -0.92
5Y Selected-1.43
(-) Safety Margin83.86%
5Y Buy Price$-0.26
Upside (to Buy Price)-119.70%
10Y Range-1.79 – -0.90
10Y Selected-1.35
(-) Safety Margin83.86%
10Y Buy Price$-0.25
Upside (to Buy Price)-118.49%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9497
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3340
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6501
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0408
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8611
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0662
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5894
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7165
Safety Score0.1828

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth21.67%19.71%17.74%15.78%13.82%11.85%9.89%7.93%5.96%4.00%
Revenue935.511,119.861,318.541,526.591,737.501,943.442,135.632,304.912,442.362,540.05
EBITDA237.01283.71334.04386.75440.19492.36541.05583.94618.76643.51
D&A-109.15-130.66-153.84-178.12-202.73-226.75-249.18-268.93-284.97-296.36
EBIT127.85153.05180.20208.64237.46265.61291.87315.01333.79347.14
Pro forma Taxes-8.46-10.12-11.92-13.80-15.71-17.57-19.31-20.84-22.08-22.96
NOPAT119.40142.92168.28194.84221.75248.04272.57294.17311.71324.18
Capital Expenditures-260.88-312.28-367.69-425.71-484.52-541.95-595.55-642.75-681.08-708.32
NWC Investment-32.52-35.99-38.79-40.61-41.17-40.20-37.52-33.04-26.83-19.07
(+) D&A109.15130.66153.84178.12202.73226.75249.18268.93284.97296.36
Free Cash Flow-64.85-74.69-84.35-93.37-101.22-107.36-111.32-112.70-111.23-106.85
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.001,534,815,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.11%Terminal Growth: 2.71%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.790.740.690.640.600.56
PV UFCF-64.41-72.36-76.30-78.85-79.81-79.03-76.51-72.31-66.63-59.76
Raw: -2,361.81
-1,799.34
Raw: -2,493.26
-1,347.34

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-2,171.07-2,073.31
(-) Net Debt-239.12-239.12
Equity Value-1,931.95-1,834.19
(/) Shares Out1,534.821,534.82
Fair Value$-1.26$-1.20
(-) Safety Margin83.86%83.86%
Buy Price$-0.20$-0.19
Current Price$1.33$1.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-115.28%-114.50%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.11%Terminal Growth: 2.21%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-64.35-72.05-75.27-77.07-77.28-75.82-72.72-68.10-62.17-55.24
Raw: -1,752.94
-1,287.22
Raw: -1,850.50
-920.10

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,653.25-1,620.19
(-) Net Debt-239.12-239.12
Equity Value-1,414.13-1,381.07
(/) Shares Out1,534.821,534.82
Fair Value$-0.92$-0.90
(-) Safety Margin83.86%83.86%
Buy Price$-0.15$-0.15
Current Price$1.33$1.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-111.18%-110.92%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.11%Terminal Growth: 3.21%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.770.720.680.640.61
PV UFCF-64.47-72.68-77.35-80.69-82.44-82.41-80.53-76.83-71.46-64.69
Raw: -3,600.20
-2,846.60
Raw: -3,800.57
-2,233.87

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-3,224.23-2,987.42
(-) Net Debt-239.12-239.12
Equity Value-2,985.11-2,748.30
(/) Shares Out1,534.821,534.82
Fair Value$-1.94$-1.79
(-) Safety Margin83.86%83.86%
Buy Price$-0.31$-0.29
Current Price$1.33$1.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-123.60%-121.73%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.33
WACC Used7.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH99.84%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,076.156,147.2412,284.3424,548.4449,056.4398,032.02195,902.50391,482.15782,319.171,563,349.11
Constant Implied Growth99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%99.84%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.310.611.232.454.919.8019.5939.1578.23156.33
Discount Factor0.950.840.790.740.690.640.600.560.520.49
Present Value of Implied FCF0.290.520.971.813.376.2911.7421.8940.8576.21

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.2632.15%$1.5321.10%
20182018-12-31$0.9020.26%$-0.88-197.89%
20172017-12-31$1.188.08%$-0.80-167.91%
20162016-12-31$1.81-3.31%$0.03-98.52%
20152015-12-31$1.55-2.05%$0.12-92.01%
20142014-12-31$2.77-5.69%$-0.60-121.73%
20132013-12-31$2.77-17.42%$0.60-78.23%
20122012-12-31$2.82-20.14%$0.04-98.61%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1.29
Median
$-1.19
10th Percentile
$-1.77
90th Percentile
$-0.89

Fair Value Distribution

$-3.83 - $-3.68
2
$-3.68 - $-3.52
1
$-3.52 - $-3.36
1
$-3.36 - $-3.20
2
$-3.20 - $-3.04
2
$-3.04 - $-2.88
1
$-2.88 - $-2.73
5
$-2.73 - $-2.57
3
$-2.57 - $-2.41
6
$-2.41 - $-2.25
8
$-2.25 - $-2.09
20
$-2.09 - $-1.94
12
$-1.94 - $-1.78
35
$-1.78 - $-1.62
54
$-1.62 - $-1.46
82
$-1.46 - $-1.30
133
$-1.30 - $-1.15
191
$-1.15 - $-0.99
233
$-0.99 - $-0.83
168
$-0.83 - $-0.67
41