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Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.80
5Y Range39.81 – 77.78
5Y Selected58.80
(-) Safety Margin84.82%
5Y Buy Price$10.80
Upside (to Buy Price)184.23%
10Y Range48.02 – 92.39
10Y Selected70.21
(-) Safety Margin84.82%
10Y Buy Price$12.90
Upside (to Buy Price)239.39%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9533
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.2756
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9286
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3320
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0677
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3063
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0335
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0081
Safety Score0.1837

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth15.20%13.96%12.71%11.47%10.22%8.98%7.73%6.49%5.24%4.00%
Revenue10,325.9811,767.4113,263.5514,784.8016,296.4817,759.8319,133.5020,375.2321,443.8922,301.65
EBITDA555.21632.71713.15794.95876.23954.911,028.771,095.541,153.001,199.11
D&A-227.45-259.20-292.16-325.67-358.97-391.20-421.46-448.81-472.35-491.24
EBIT327.75373.51421.00469.28517.26563.71607.31646.73680.65707.87
Pro forma Taxes-90.45-103.08-116.18-129.51-142.75-155.57-167.60-178.48-187.84-195.35
NOPAT237.30270.43304.81339.77374.51408.14439.71468.25492.81512.52
Capital Expenditures-208.15-237.21-267.37-298.03-328.51-358.00-385.69-410.72-432.27-449.56
NWC Investment-8.33-8.81-9.14-9.30-9.24-8.94-8.40-7.59-6.53-5.24
(+) D&A227.45259.20292.16325.67358.97391.20421.46448.81472.35491.24
Free Cash Flow248.27283.61320.46358.11395.73432.39467.08498.74526.36548.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50166,634,970.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.51%Terminal Growth: 2.14%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.670.620.59
PV UFCF246.71275.50292.25306.62318.11326.32330.94331.76328.72321.87
Raw: 9,236.19
7,193.87
Raw: 12,812.43
7,278.94

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value8,633.0610,357.74
(-) Net Debt-80.05-80.05
Equity Value8,713.1110,437.79
(/) Shares Out166.63166.63
Fair Value$52.29$62.64
(-) Safety Margin84.82%84.82%
Buy Price$7.94$9.51
Current Price$3.80$3.80
Upside (to Buy Price)108.88%150.22%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.51%Terminal Growth: 1.64%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF246.48274.32288.29299.65307.99313.00314.48312.33306.58297.40
Raw: 6,844.82
5,137.60
Raw: 9,495.12
4,961.06

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,554.337,921.58
(-) Net Debt-80.05-80.05
Equity Value6,634.388,001.63
(/) Shares Out166.63166.63
Fair Value$39.81$48.02
(-) Safety Margin84.82%84.82%
Buy Price$6.04$7.29
Current Price$3.80$3.80
Upside (to Buy Price)59.05%91.82%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.51%Terminal Growth: 2.64%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF246.95276.70296.31313.81328.66340.34348.43352.61352.68348.61
Raw: 14,121.88
11,417.86
Raw: 19,589.85
12,110.81

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,880.2815,315.91
(-) Net Debt-80.05-80.05
Equity Value12,960.3315,395.96
(/) Shares Out166.63166.63
Fair Value$77.78$92.39
(-) Safety Margin84.82%84.82%
Buy Price$11.81$14.03
Current Price$3.80$3.80
Upside (to Buy Price)210.70%269.09%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.80
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH36.00%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue23,272.5831,651.7943,047.9058,547.1579,626.84108,296.19147,287.84200,318.30272,442.18370,534.00
Constant Implied Growth36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%36.00%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.333.174.305.857.9610.8314.7320.0327.2437.05
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.750.710.670.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF2.232.713.464.425.647.209.2011.7515.0019.15

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.9215.78%$-35.58-1,952.98%
20182018-12-31$3.1917.11%$-5.63-276.47%
20172017-12-31$4.1811.45%$31.77660.14%
20162016-12-31$5.53-2.75%$41.58651.99%
20152015-12-31$6.74-11.72%$-5.29-178.48%
20142014-12-31$6.38-9.54%$29.13356.63%
20132013-12-31$6.87-0.01%$17.25151.05%
20122012-12-31$4.459.50%$11.65161.85%
20112011-12-31$5.5815.26%$18.61233.43%
20102010-12-31$6.2716.16%$30.56387.40%
20092009-12-31$4.5316.23%$39.71776.57%
20082008-12-31$1.3116.70%$-5.67-532.94%
20072007-12-31$3.7420.43%$37.72908.46%
20062006-12-31$3.1021.87%$-5.94-291.53%
20052005-12-31$5.1922.12%$12.79146.46%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$66.94
Median
$61.97
10th Percentile
$47.97
90th Percentile
$91.71

Fair Value Distribution

$33.23 - $41.51
18
$41.51 - $49.78
127
$49.78 - $58.06
226
$58.06 - $66.34
245
$66.34 - $74.61
143
$74.61 - $82.89
91
$82.89 - $91.17
48
$91.17 - $99.45
40
$99.45 - $107.72
19
$107.72 - $116.00
13
$116.00 - $124.28
11
$124.28 - $132.55
5
$132.55 - $140.83
2
$140.83 - $149.11
0
$149.11 - $157.38
3
$157.38 - $165.66
1
$165.66 - $173.94
1
$173.94 - $182.22
3
$182.22 - $190.49
3
$190.49 - $198.77
0