Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.09 |
| 5Y Range | 0.76 – 2.19 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.75% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.10% |
| 10Y Range | 0.78 – 2.13 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.75% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.47% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7872 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8995 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8670 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2363 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2785 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0231 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0227 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0209 |
| Safety Score | 0.1988 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.69% | 2.84% | 2.98% | 3.13% | 3.27% | 3.42% | 3.56% | 3.71% | 3.85% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,851.10 | 1,903.62 | 1,960.39 | 2,021.70 | 2,087.87 | 2,159.24 | 2,236.19 | 2,319.14 | 2,408.53 | 2,504.87 |
| EBITDA | 152.25 | 156.57 | 161.24 | 166.28 | 171.72 | 177.59 | 183.92 | 190.74 | 198.10 | 206.02 |
| D&A | -58.78 | -60.45 | -62.25 | -64.19 | -66.30 | -68.56 | -71.01 | -73.64 | -76.48 | -79.54 |
| EBIT | 93.47 | 96.12 | 98.99 | 102.08 | 105.43 | 109.03 | 112.92 | 117.10 | 121.62 | 126.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -21.17 | -21.77 | -22.42 | -23.12 | -23.87 | -24.69 | -25.57 | -26.52 | -27.54 | -28.64 |
| NOPAT | 72.30 | 74.36 | 76.57 | 78.97 | 81.55 | 84.34 | 87.35 | 90.59 | 94.08 | 97.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -111.83 | -115.00 | -118.43 | -122.13 | -126.13 | -130.44 | -135.09 | -140.10 | -145.50 | -151.32 |
| NWC Investment | -2.32 | -2.52 | -2.72 | -2.94 | -3.17 | -3.42 | -3.69 | -3.97 | -4.28 | -4.62 |
| (+) D&A | 58.78 | 60.45 | 62.25 | 64.19 | 66.30 | 68.56 | 71.01 | 73.64 | 76.48 | 79.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | 16.93 | 17.29 | 17.67 | 18.10 | 18.55 | 19.04 | 19.58 | 20.15 | 20.77 | 21.44 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 | 415,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.83 | 16.82 | 16.17 | 15.57 | 15.01 | 14.50 | 14.02 | 13.57 | 13.16 | 12.78 | Raw: 588.76 462.07 |
Raw: 680.57 393.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 542.48 | 541.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 67.72 | 67.72 |
| Equity Value | 474.75 | 474.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 415.00 | 415.00 |
| Fair Value | $1.14 | $1.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.75% | 83.75% |
| Buy Price | $0.19 | $0.19 |
| Current Price | $1.09 | $1.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.95% | -82.97% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.81 | 16.75 | 15.96 | 15.21 | 14.53 | 13.90 | 13.32 | 12.78 | 12.27 | 11.81 | Raw: 400.78 303.09 |
Raw: 463.28 246.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 382.36 | 389.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | 67.72 | 67.72 |
| Equity Value | 314.63 | 321.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 415.00 | 415.00 |
| Fair Value | $0.76 | $0.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.75% | 83.75% |
| Buy Price | $0.12 | $0.13 |
| Current Price | $1.09 | $1.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.70% | -88.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 16.85 | 16.89 | 16.40 | 15.93 | 15.51 | 15.12 | 14.76 | 14.43 | 14.12 | 13.84 | Raw: 1,099.48 895.81 |
Raw: 1,270.94 799.50 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 977.39 | 953.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 67.72 | 67.72 |
| Equity Value | 909.67 | 885.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 415.00 | 415.00 |
| Fair Value | $2.19 | $2.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.75% | 83.75% |
| Buy Price | $0.36 | $0.35 |
| Current Price | $1.09 | $1.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.32% | -68.19% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,468.10 | 8,649.37 | 13,681.47 | 21,641.17 | 34,231.72 | 54,147.30 | 85,649.49 | 135,479.26 | 214,299.35 | 338,975.96 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% | 58.18% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.55 | 0.86 | 1.37 | 2.16 | 3.42 | 5.41 | 8.56 | 13.55 | 21.43 | 33.90 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.52 | 0.74 | 1.11 | 1.65 | 2.45 | 3.65 | 5.43 | 8.07 | 12.01 | 17.87 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.39 | 3.97% | $2.51 | 80.55% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.58 | 2.63% | $5.80 | 266.79% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.58 | 3.96% | $-2.70 | -270.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.68 | 6.61% | $3.52 | 31.46% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.35 | 9.39% | $7.80 | 132.83% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.70 | 11.89% | $0.87 | -67.64% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.03 | 5.04% | $1.43 | -52.65% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.12 | -2.88% | $0.31 | -89.98% |
| $0.53 - $0.90 | 245 |
| $0.90 - $1.27 | 388 |
| $1.27 - $1.64 | 177 |
| $1.64 - $2.01 | 80 |
| $2.01 - $2.38 | 55 |
| $2.38 - $2.75 | 21 |
| $2.75 - $3.12 | 14 |
| $3.12 - $3.49 | 5 |
| $3.49 - $3.86 | 4 |
| $3.86 - $4.23 | 2 |
| $4.23 - $4.60 | 0 |
| $4.60 - $4.97 | 1 |
| $4.97 - $5.34 | 3 |
| $5.34 - $5.71 | 0 |
| $5.71 - $6.08 | 0 |
| $6.08 - $6.45 | 2 |
| $6.45 - $6.82 | 0 |
| $6.82 - $7.19 | 1 |
| $7.19 - $7.56 | 1 |
| $7.56 - $7.93 | 1 |