Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.23 |
| 5Y Range | 8.58 – 15.17 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.46% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.75% |
| 10Y Range | 9.17 – 15.76 |
| 10Y Selected | 12.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.46% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.85% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0080 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4016 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1333 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0699 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1272 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0962 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4698 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0814 |
| Safety Score | 0.1685 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.26% | 3.34% | 3.43% | 3.51% | 3.59% | 3.67% | 3.75% | 3.84% | 3.92% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,410.70 | 10,758.72 | 11,127.21 | 11,517.46 | 11,930.85 | 12,368.89 | 12,833.16 | 13,325.41 | 13,847.48 | 14,401.37 |
| EBITDA | 347.70 | 359.32 | 371.62 | 384.66 | 398.46 | 413.09 | 428.60 | 445.04 | 462.48 | 480.97 |
| D&A | -72.29 | -74.71 | -77.27 | -79.98 | -82.85 | -85.89 | -89.11 | -92.53 | -96.15 | -100.00 |
| EBIT | 275.40 | 284.61 | 294.36 | 304.68 | 315.62 | 327.21 | 339.49 | 352.51 | 366.32 | 380.97 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -46.87 | -48.43 | -50.09 | -51.85 | -53.71 | -55.68 | -57.77 | -59.99 | -62.34 | -64.83 |
| NOPAT | 228.54 | 236.18 | 244.27 | 252.84 | 261.91 | 271.53 | 281.72 | 292.52 | 303.99 | 316.14 |
| Capital Expenditures | -111.15 | -114.87 | -118.80 | -122.97 | -127.38 | -132.06 | -137.02 | -142.27 | -147.85 | -153.76 |
| NWC Investment | -15.21 | -16.10 | -17.05 | -18.06 | -19.13 | -20.27 | -21.48 | -22.78 | -24.16 | -25.63 |
| (+) D&A | 72.29 | 74.71 | 77.27 | 79.98 | 82.85 | 85.89 | 89.11 | 92.53 | 96.15 | 100.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 174.46 | 179.91 | 185.68 | 191.78 | 198.24 | 205.08 | 212.33 | 220.00 | 228.13 | 236.75 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 | 387,883,668.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 173.29 | 174.40 | 168.20 | 162.35 | 156.84 | 151.62 | 146.70 | 142.05 | 137.66 | 133.51 | Raw: 4,216.28 3,224.57 |
Raw: 5,035.32 2,744.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,059.64 | 4,291.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | -146.57 | -146.57 |
| Equity Value | 4,206.21 | 4,438.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 387.88 | 387.88 |
| Fair Value | $10.84 | $11.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.46% | 85.46% |
| Buy Price | $1.58 | $1.66 |
| Current Price | $5.23 | $5.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.85% | -68.19% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 173.13 | 173.65 | 165.93 | 158.68 | 151.87 | 145.46 | 139.44 | 133.77 | 128.43 | 123.40 | Raw: 3,197.54 2,357.00 |
Raw: 3,818.67 1,915.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,180.26 | 3,408.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | -146.57 | -146.57 |
| Equity Value | 3,326.83 | 3,555.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 387.88 | 387.88 |
| Fair Value | $8.58 | $9.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.46% | 85.46% |
| Buy Price | $1.25 | $1.33 |
| Current Price | $5.23 | $5.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.16% | -74.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | ||
| PV UFCF | 173.45 | 175.15 | 170.52 | 166.15 | 162.01 | 158.11 | 154.42 | 150.94 | 147.65 | 144.54 | Raw: 6,159.67 4,889.30 |
Raw: 7,356.22 4,362.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,736.59 | 5,964.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | -146.57 | -146.57 |
| Equity Value | 5,883.16 | 6,111.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 387.88 | 387.88 |
| Fair Value | $15.17 | $15.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.46% | 85.46% |
| Buy Price | $2.21 | $2.29 |
| Current Price | $5.23 | $5.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.83% | -56.20% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 32,797.44 | 50,197.06 | 76,827.49 | 117,585.82 | 179,967.16 | 275,442.91 | 421,570.21 | 645,220.62 | 987,521.50 | 1,511,419.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% | 53.05% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.28 | 5.02 | 7.68 | 11.76 | 18.00 | 27.54 | 42.16 | 64.52 | 98.75 | 151.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.13 | 4.25 | 6.08 | 8.69 | 12.43 | 17.78 | 25.44 | 36.38 | 52.04 | 74.43 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.25 | -0.97% | $181.74 | 7,977.27% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.74 | 5.91% | $378.93 | 21,677.43% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.67 | 11.32% | $41.36 | 1,026.88% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.19 | 13.86% | $-0.76 | -134.51% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $0.68 | 8.46% | $6.20 | 811.36% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.01 | 16.28% | $2.62 | 159.79% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $0.97 | 18.25% | $8.87 | 814.37% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1.01 | 12.34% | $-10.95 | -1,184.53% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.59 | 2.09% | $4.47 | 181.30% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.59 | -9.85% | $-0.31 | -119.28% |
| $6.82 - $9.05 | 80 |
| $9.05 - $11.27 | 375 |
| $11.27 - $13.50 | 316 |
| $13.50 - $15.72 | 120 |
| $15.72 - $17.95 | 58 |
| $17.95 - $20.18 | 26 |
| $20.18 - $22.40 | 9 |
| $22.40 - $24.63 | 6 |
| $24.63 - $26.86 | 5 |
| $26.86 - $29.08 | 2 |
| $29.08 - $31.31 | 1 |
| $31.31 - $33.53 | 0 |
| $33.53 - $35.76 | 1 |
| $35.76 - $37.99 | 0 |
| $37.99 - $40.21 | 0 |
| $40.21 - $42.44 | 0 |
| $42.44 - $44.66 | 0 |
| $44.66 - $46.89 | 0 |
| $46.89 - $49.12 | 0 |
| $49.12 - $51.34 | 1 |