Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

China Lilang Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.41
5Y Range5.74 – 13.57
5Y Selected9.65
(-) Safety Margin85.01%
5Y Buy Price$1.79
Upside (to Buy Price)-47.50%
10Y Range5.96 – 13.55
10Y Selected9.76
(-) Safety Margin85.01%
10Y Buy Price$1.81
Upside (to Buy Price)-46.93%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7221
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5364
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1853
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2695
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7251
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0001
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0674
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0505
Safety Score0.1855

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth1.92%2.15%2.38%2.61%2.84%3.07%3.31%3.54%3.77%4.00%
Revenue3,719.933,799.833,890.243,991.814,105.284,231.474,371.344,525.954,696.514,884.37
EBITDA678.74693.31709.81728.34749.05772.07797.59825.80856.92891.20
D&A-142.31-145.37-148.83-152.72-157.06-161.88-167.24-173.15-179.68-186.86
EBIT536.42547.94560.98575.63591.99610.19630.36652.65677.25704.34
Pro forma Taxes-113.99-116.44-119.21-122.32-125.80-129.67-133.95-138.69-143.92-149.68
NOPAT422.43431.50441.77453.30466.19480.52496.40513.96533.33554.66
Capital Expenditures-236.00-241.07-246.81-253.25-260.45-268.45-277.33-287.14-297.96-309.88
NWC Investment-7.15-8.16-9.24-10.38-11.59-12.89-14.29-15.80-17.42-19.19
(+) D&A142.31145.37148.83152.72157.06161.88167.24173.15179.68186.86
Free Cash Flow321.60327.64334.56342.39351.21361.06372.02384.18397.62412.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.001,197,485,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.59
PV UFCF319.63318.71306.04294.36283.95274.52266.00258.32251.43245.27
Raw: 10,314.77
8,087.13
Raw: 12,113.68
6,985.48

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,609.829,803.69
(-) Net Debt59.4459.44
Equity Value9,550.379,744.25
(/) Shares Out1,197.491,197.49
Fair Value$7.98$8.14
(-) Safety Margin85.01%85.01%
Buy Price$1.20$1.22
Current Price$3.41$3.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-64.94%-64.23%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 2.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF319.33317.37301.92287.66274.90263.29252.74243.16234.47226.59
Raw: 7,186.10
5,429.14
Raw: 8,439.37
4,475.15

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,930.317,196.58
(-) Net Debt59.4459.44
Equity Value6,870.877,137.14
(/) Shares Out1,197.491,197.49
Fair Value$5.74$5.96
(-) Safety Margin85.01%85.01%
Buy Price$0.86$0.89
Current Price$3.41$3.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.78%-73.80%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 3.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF319.93320.06310.26301.29293.38286.33280.08274.58269.79265.68
Raw: 18,133.11
14,759.01
Raw: 21,295.56
13,365.22

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value16,303.9316,286.61
(-) Net Debt59.4459.44
Equity Value16,244.4916,227.16
(/) Shares Out1,197.491,197.49
Fair Value$13.57$13.55
(-) Safety Margin85.01%85.01%
Buy Price$2.03$2.03
Current Price$3.41$3.41
Upside (to Buy Price)-40.37%-40.43%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.41
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH80.87%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue13,438.1824,305.0243,959.4079,507.37143,801.39260,087.07470,407.71850,805.161,538,812.832,783,181.19
Constant Implied Growth80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%80.87%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.342.434.407.9514.3826.0147.0485.08153.88278.32
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.292.093.556.0510.2817.4929.7550.5986.05146.36

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$5.686.65%$9.3865.13%
20182018-12-31$5.790.77%$4.84-16.47%
20172017-12-31$5.26-1.32%$4.59-12.74%
20162016-12-31$3.914.96%$5.5842.72%
20152015-12-31$4.796.41%$11.41138.26%
20142014-12-31$3.909.13%$11.01182.28%
20132013-12-31$3.734.40%$10.35177.56%
20122012-12-31$3.690.99%$7.1393.28%
20112011-12-31$5.50-1.55%$1.93-64.97%
20102010-12-31$10.17-1.62%$6.07-40.27%
20092009-12-31$4.751.72%$7.1650.75%
20082008-12-31$3.416.79%$-0.63-118.61%
20072007-12-31$3.6215.73%$0.67-81.52%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$9.36
Median
$8.31
10th Percentile
$5.97
90th Percentile
$13.26

Fair Value Distribution

$2.51 - $4.65
6
$4.65 - $6.78
224
$6.78 - $8.91
359
$8.91 - $11.04
225
$11.04 - $13.17
84
$13.17 - $15.31
35
$15.31 - $17.44
18
$17.44 - $19.57
16
$19.57 - $21.70
9
$21.70 - $23.83
7
$23.83 - $25.97
2
$25.97 - $28.10
2
$28.10 - $30.23
2
$30.23 - $32.36
3
$32.36 - $34.49
2
$34.49 - $36.63
2
$36.63 - $38.76
0
$38.76 - $40.89
2
$40.89 - $43.02
1
$43.02 - $45.15
0