Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $22.76 |
| 5Y Range | 9.68 – 21.79 |
| 5Y Selected | 15.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.97% |
| 10Y Range | 6.94 – 13.86 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.76% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8701 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9486 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3813 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3955 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0090 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7120 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0050 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0191 |
| Safety Score | 0.2898 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.78% | 11.81% | 10.83% | 9.86% | 8.88% | 7.90% | 6.93% | 5.95% | 4.98% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 115,800.92 | 129,473.63 | 143,497.18 | 157,639.28 | 171,636.75 | 185,202.14 | 198,032.31 | 209,818.74 | 220,259.08 | 229,069.44 |
| EBITDA | 10,504.27 | 11,744.52 | 13,016.59 | 14,299.42 | 15,569.13 | 16,799.64 | 17,963.46 | 19,032.60 | 19,979.64 | 20,778.83 |
| D&A | -3,543.73 | -3,962.14 | -4,391.29 | -4,824.07 | -5,252.42 | -5,667.55 | -6,060.17 | -6,420.86 | -6,740.36 | -7,009.97 |
| EBIT | 6,960.54 | 7,782.37 | 8,625.30 | 9,475.35 | 10,316.71 | 11,132.09 | 11,903.29 | 12,611.74 | 13,239.29 | 13,768.86 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,763.86 | -1,972.12 | -2,185.73 | -2,401.14 | -2,614.34 | -2,820.97 | -3,016.40 | -3,195.93 | -3,354.95 | -3,489.15 |
| NOPAT | 5,196.68 | 5,810.25 | 6,439.57 | 7,074.21 | 7,702.36 | 8,311.12 | 8,886.89 | 9,415.81 | 9,884.33 | 10,279.71 |
| Capital Expenditures | -8,684.24 | -9,709.60 | -10,761.26 | -11,821.82 | -12,871.53 | -13,888.83 | -14,851.00 | -15,734.90 | -16,517.85 | -17,178.57 |
| NWC Investment | 1,123.16 | 1,170.03 | 1,200.05 | 1,210.19 | 1,197.82 | 1,160.84 | 1,097.93 | 1,008.61 | 893.42 | 753.94 |
| (+) D&A | 3,543.73 | 3,962.14 | 4,391.29 | 4,824.07 | 5,252.42 | 5,667.55 | 6,060.17 | 6,420.86 | 6,740.36 | 7,009.97 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,179.33 | 1,232.83 | 1,269.65 | 1,286.66 | 1,281.07 | 1,250.68 | 1,193.98 | 1,110.38 | 1,000.26 | 865.05 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 | 2,270,952,080.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,172.13 | 1,198.57 | 1,161.01 | 1,106.64 | 1,036.35 | 951.63 | 854.50 | 747.44 | 633.30 | 515.14 | Raw: 34,148.95 26,792.03 |
Raw: 23,059.21 13,317.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 32,466.72 | 22,694.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,101.39 | 2,101.39 |
| Equity Value | 30,365.33 | 20,592.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,270.95 | 2,270.95 |
| Fair Value | $13.37 | $9.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.63% | 74.63% |
| Buy Price | $3.39 | $2.30 |
| Current Price | $22.76 | $22.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.10% | -89.89% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,171.03 | 1,193.42 | 1,145.25 | 1,081.44 | 1,003.32 | 912.72 | 811.92 | 703.58 | 590.58 | 475.92 | Raw: 24,444.31 18,480.16 |
Raw: 16,506.11 8,765.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,074.61 | 17,855.12 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,101.39 | 2,101.39 |
| Equity Value | 21,973.23 | 15,753.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,270.95 | 2,270.95 |
| Fair Value | $9.68 | $6.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.63% | 74.63% |
| Buy Price | $2.45 | $1.76 |
| Current Price | $22.76 | $22.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.21% | -92.27% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,173.23 | 1,203.79 | 1,177.14 | 1,132.66 | 1,070.80 | 992.60 | 899.75 | 794.50 | 679.56 | 558.02 | Raw: 56,272.91 45,833.20 |
Raw: 37,998.50 23,884.88 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 51,590.83 | 33,566.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,101.39 | 2,101.39 |
| Equity Value | 49,489.44 | 31,465.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,270.95 | 2,270.95 |
| Fair Value | $21.79 | $13.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.63% | 74.63% |
| Buy Price | $5.53 | $3.52 |
| Current Price | $22.76 | $22.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.71% | -84.56% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 343,792.85 | 575,534.08 | 963,485.64 | 1,612,944.58 | 2,700,185.79 | 4,520,306.14 | 7,567,319.15 | 12,668,239.11 | 21,207,547.74 | 35,502,967.50 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% | 67.41% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 34.38 | 57.55 | 96.35 | 161.29 | 270.02 | 452.03 | 756.73 | 1,266.82 | 2,120.75 | 3,550.30 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 32.94 | 49.50 | 77.94 | 122.73 | 193.25 | 304.28 | 479.11 | 754.40 | 1,187.87 | 1,870.40 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $42.80 | 14.26% | $57.84 | 35.14% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $31.00 | 15.77% | $36.84 | 18.85% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $28.00 | 14.37% | $39.57 | 41.33% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $21.80 | 13.68% | $43.53 | 99.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $23.15 | 13.65% | $21.78 | -5.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $20.15 | 15.40% | $20.10 | -0.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $27.00 | 13.42% | $19.06 | -29.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $16.00 | 12.89% | $10.54 | -34.10% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $11.10 | 12.70% | $6.06 | -45.39% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.26 | 18.36% | $-4.35 | -138.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $11.40 | 20.39% | $8.59 | -24.66% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.79 | 31.25% | $32.85 | 1,077.46% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $13.90 | 18.04% | $-60.63 | -536.17% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $7.40 | -16.46% | $-9.06 | -222.38% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $7.80 | -32.89% | $-4.58 | -158.71% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $9.10 | -35.42% | $-6.89 | -175.71% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $8.10 | -6.77% | $0.87 | -89.25% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $5.00 | 15.84% | $-20.07 | -501.42% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $7.50 | 22.59% | $-7.54 | -200.54% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $6.40 | 22.99% | $-69,761.35 | -1,090,121.14% |
| $4.83 - $6.67 | 65 |
| $6.67 - $8.52 | 335 |
| $8.52 - $10.37 | 301 |
| $10.37 - $12.22 | 124 |
| $12.22 - $14.07 | 91 |
| $14.07 - $15.92 | 33 |
| $15.92 - $17.76 | 20 |
| $17.76 - $19.61 | 9 |
| $19.61 - $21.46 | 6 |
| $21.46 - $23.31 | 6 |
| $23.31 - $25.16 | 2 |
| $25.16 - $27.01 | 2 |
| $27.01 - $28.85 | 2 |
| $28.85 - $30.70 | 0 |
| $30.70 - $32.55 | 0 |
| $32.55 - $34.40 | 0 |
| $34.40 - $36.25 | 1 |
| $36.25 - $38.10 | 1 |
| $38.10 - $39.94 | 1 |
| $39.94 - $41.79 | 1 |