Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.51 |
| 5Y Range | 24.60 – 49.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 37.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $10.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 126.70% |
| 10Y Range | 27.15 – 53.15 |
| 10Y Selected | 40.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 145.78% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0037 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5154 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0257 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5203 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0741 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6602 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3172 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3068 |
| Safety Score | 0.2761 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.35% | 5.20% | 5.05% | 4.90% | 4.75% | 4.60% | 4.45% | 4.30% | 4.15% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 29,241.33 | 30,761.26 | 32,314.14 | 33,897.02 | 35,506.69 | 37,139.62 | 38,792.04 | 40,459.89 | 42,138.87 | 43,824.43 |
| EBITDA | 1,039.08 | 1,093.09 | 1,148.28 | 1,204.52 | 1,261.72 | 1,319.75 | 1,378.47 | 1,437.73 | 1,497.39 | 1,557.29 |
| D&A | -43.42 | -45.68 | -47.99 | -50.34 | -52.73 | -55.15 | -57.60 | -60.08 | -62.57 | -65.08 |
| EBIT | 995.66 | 1,047.41 | 1,100.29 | 1,154.19 | 1,209.00 | 1,264.60 | 1,320.86 | 1,377.65 | 1,434.82 | 1,492.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -173.05 | -182.04 | -191.23 | -200.60 | -210.12 | -219.79 | -229.57 | -239.44 | -249.37 | -259.35 |
| NOPAT | 822.62 | 865.37 | 909.06 | 953.59 | 998.87 | 1,044.81 | 1,091.30 | 1,138.22 | 1,185.45 | 1,232.87 |
| Capital Expenditures | -112.99 | -118.87 | -124.87 | -130.98 | -137.20 | -143.51 | -149.90 | -156.34 | -162.83 | -169.35 |
| NWC Investment | -38.67 | -39.60 | -40.46 | -41.24 | -41.94 | -42.54 | -43.05 | -43.45 | -43.74 | -43.91 |
| (+) D&A | 43.42 | 45.68 | 47.99 | 50.34 | 52.73 | 55.15 | 57.60 | 60.08 | 62.57 | 65.08 |
| Free Cash Flow | 714.37 | 752.59 | 791.72 | 831.70 | 872.46 | 913.90 | 955.95 | 998.50 | 1,041.45 | 1,084.68 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 | 625,837,440.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 709.94 | 731.79 | 723.35 | 713.55 | 703.32 | 692.24 | 680.37 | 667.74 | 654.41 | 640.42 | Raw: 21,400.90 16,723.04 |
Raw: 26,606.71 15,227.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,304.99 | 22,144.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70.46 | -70.46 |
| Equity Value | 20,375.45 | 22,214.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 625.84 | 625.84 |
| Fair Value | $32.56 | $35.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.76% | 75.76% |
| Buy Price | $7.89 | $8.60 |
| Current Price | $4.51 | $4.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 74.99% | 90.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 709.27 | 728.71 | 713.61 | 697.32 | 680.92 | 663.96 | 646.50 | 628.59 | 610.31 | 591.70 | Raw: 15,661.11 11,792.93 |
Raw: 19,470.70 10,247.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,322.77 | 16,918.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70.46 | -70.46 |
| Equity Value | 15,393.23 | 16,989.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 625.84 | 625.84 |
| Fair Value | $24.60 | $27.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.76% | 75.76% |
| Buy Price | $5.96 | $6.58 |
| Current Price | $4.51 | $4.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 32.20% | 45.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 710.61 | 734.90 | 733.32 | 730.32 | 726.67 | 722.01 | 716.36 | 709.73 | 702.16 | 693.66 | Raw: 33,592.85 27,249.97 |
Raw: 41,764.38 26,012.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,885.79 | 33,191.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -70.46 | -70.46 |
| Equity Value | 30,956.25 | 33,262.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 625.84 | 625.84 |
| Fair Value | $49.46 | $53.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.76% | 75.76% |
| Buy Price | $11.99 | $12.88 |
| Current Price | $4.51 | $4.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 165.85% | 185.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 76,034.41 | 108,185.68 | 153,932.17 | 219,022.63 | 311,636.69 | 443,412.75 | 630,910.52 | 897,692.02 | 1,277,282.49 | 1,817,383.38 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% | 42.29% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 7.60 | 10.82 | 15.39 | 21.90 | 31.16 | 44.34 | 63.09 | 89.77 | 127.73 | 181.74 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 7.28 | 9.28 | 12.41 | 16.59 | 22.18 | 29.65 | 39.64 | 53.00 | 70.86 | 94.73 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.64 | 1.83% | $30.75 | 1,064.60% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.36 | 6.04% | $21.45 | 809.04% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $2.60 | 6.27% | $-27.78 | -1,168.32% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.59 | 9.61% | $-20.10 | -1,364.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1.49 | 12.73% | $9.29 | 523.59% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.71 | 18.68% | $-42.71 | -2,597.42% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.87 | 21.91% | $14.50 | 675.50% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $0.73 | 8.36% | $-10.88 | -1,600.78% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $0.80 | 4.77% | $0.03 | -96.81% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $0.95 | 14.19% | $11.47 | 1,107.23% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $0.60 | 21.26% | $-2.08 | -447.15% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.40 | 25.40% | $9.14 | 2,185.70% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $0.67 | 19.70% | $-9.12 | -1,460.92% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $0.43 | 11.88% | $5.65 | 1,230.38% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $0.40 | 11.04% | $-4.80 | -1,300.16% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $0.39 | 7.89% | $2.20 | 464.46% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $0.36 | 5.77% | $-4.40 | -1,338.71% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.25 | 10.40% | $-0.19 | -175.72% |
| $18.20 - $24.74 | 33 |
| $24.74 - $31.28 | 259 |
| $31.28 - $37.83 | 285 |
| $37.83 - $44.37 | 199 |
| $44.37 - $50.91 | 107 |
| $50.91 - $57.46 | 48 |
| $57.46 - $64.00 | 26 |
| $64.00 - $70.55 | 11 |
| $70.55 - $77.09 | 8 |
| $77.09 - $83.63 | 8 |
| $83.63 - $90.18 | 4 |
| $90.18 - $96.72 | 4 |
| $96.72 - $103.26 | 0 |
| $103.26 - $109.81 | 4 |
| $109.81 - $116.35 | 1 |
| $116.35 - $122.89 | 1 |
| $122.89 - $129.44 | 1 |
| $129.44 - $135.98 | 0 |
| $135.98 - $142.52 | 0 |
| $142.52 - $149.07 | 1 |