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Golik Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.07
5Y Range5.20 – 10.90
5Y Selected8.05
(-) Safety Margin75.45%
5Y Buy Price$2.26
Upside (to Buy Price)111.20%
10Y Range5.79 – 11.82
10Y Selected8.80
(-) Safety Margin75.45%
10Y Buy Price$2.47
Upside (to Buy Price)131.06%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0847
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6862
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0513
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2471
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0178
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4375
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3246
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6520
Safety Score0.2808

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.29%5.15%5.00%4.86%4.72%4.57%4.43%4.29%4.14%4.00%
Revenue3,628.073,814.814,005.684,200.364,398.484,599.644,803.415,009.325,216.875,425.55
EBITDA256.03269.21282.68296.42310.40324.59338.97353.50368.15382.88
D&A-67.93-71.43-75.01-78.65-82.36-86.13-89.94-93.80-97.68-101.59
EBIT188.10197.78207.67217.77228.04238.47249.03259.71270.47281.28
Pro forma Taxes-31.70-33.33-35.00-36.70-38.43-40.18-41.96-43.76-45.58-47.40
NOPAT156.40164.45172.68181.07189.61198.28207.07215.94224.89233.88
Capital Expenditures-65.41-68.78-72.22-75.73-79.30-82.93-86.60-90.31-94.05-97.82
NWC Investment-23.13-23.69-24.22-24.70-25.14-25.53-25.86-26.13-26.34-26.48
(+) D&A67.9371.4375.0178.6582.3686.1389.9493.8097.68101.59
Free Cash Flow135.79143.41151.24159.29167.53175.96184.55193.30202.18211.18
Diluted Shares Outstanding574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00574,378,128.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.35%Terminal Growth: 2.34%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF134.96139.49138.33136.90135.39133.71131.87129.87127.73125.45
Raw: 4,279.44
3,353.61
Raw: 5,394.46
3,107.37

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,038.694,441.08
(-) Net Debt28.6028.60
Equity Value4,010.084,412.48
(/) Shares Out574.38574.38
Fair Value$6.98$7.68
(-) Safety Margin75.45%75.45%
Buy Price$1.71$1.89
Current Price$1.07$1.07
Upside (to Buy Price)60.19%76.26%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.35%Terminal Growth: 1.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF134.83138.90136.46133.79131.08128.24125.30122.25119.12115.90
Raw: 3,098.49
2,339.81
Raw: 3,905.81
2,068.89

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,014.883,354.78
(-) Net Debt28.6028.60
Equity Value2,986.273,326.17
(/) Shares Out574.38574.38
Fair Value$5.20$5.79
(-) Safety Margin75.45%75.45%
Buy Price$1.28$1.42
Current Price$1.07$1.07
Upside (to Buy Price)19.29%32.87%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.35%Terminal Growth: 2.84%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF135.09140.09140.24140.12139.89139.46138.85138.05137.06135.89
Raw: 6,873.84
5,592.07
Raw: 8,664.83
5,432.10

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,287.496,816.83
(-) Net Debt28.6028.60
Equity Value6,258.896,788.23
(/) Shares Out574.38574.38
Fair Value$10.90$11.82
(-) Safety Margin75.45%75.45%
Buy Price$2.68$2.90
Current Price$1.07$1.07
Upside (to Buy Price)150.02%171.16%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.07
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH49.72%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue11,151.6716,696.1924,997.4137,425.9356,033.8283,893.41125,604.57188,054.20281,553.32421,539.49
Constant Implied Growth49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%49.72%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.121.672.503.745.608.3912.5618.8128.1642.15
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.071.432.022.844.005.647.9411.1715.7322.14

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$0.583.05%$7.471,187.20%
20182018-12-31$0.7211.13%$-7.98-1,207.73%
20172017-12-31$0.989.61%$-17.10-1,844.70%
20162016-12-31$0.956.84%$-1.76-285.26%
20152015-12-31$0.916.20%$15.141,563.51%
20142014-12-31$0.825.48%$10.661,199.64%
20132013-12-31$0.750.10%$15.802,006.16%
20122012-12-31$0.80-6.19%$6.69735.82%
20112011-12-31$0.52-7.96%$-3.98-865.83%
20102010-12-31$0.91-1.33%$-0.79-186.90%
20092009-12-31$0.40-0.03%$1.20204.54%
20082008-12-31$0.20-0.26%$1.20488.36%
20072007-12-31$0.35-3.99%$-3.06-973.00%
20062006-12-31$0.270.40%$2.08685.10%
20052005-12-31$0.2610.65%$5.942,184.05%
20042004-12-31$0.2310.51%$0.93301.18%
20032003-12-31$0.568.36%$-3.29-686.80%
20022002-12-31$0.272.55%$-4.10-1,616.67%
20012001-12-31$0.1910.66%$1.10487.35%
20002000-12-31$0.2623.53%$-3.24-1,346.11%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$8.36
Median
$7.61
10th Percentile
$5.68
90th Percentile
$11.46

Fair Value Distribution

$4.10 - $5.69
102
$5.69 - $7.28
327
$7.28 - $8.87
283
$8.87 - $10.46
140
$10.46 - $12.05
67
$12.05 - $13.64
22
$13.64 - $15.22
20
$15.22 - $16.81
10
$16.81 - $18.40
17
$18.40 - $19.99
2
$19.99 - $21.58
3
$21.58 - $23.17
2
$23.17 - $24.76
1
$24.76 - $26.35
0
$26.35 - $27.94
1
$27.94 - $29.53
1
$29.53 - $31.12
0
$31.12 - $32.70
0
$32.70 - $34.29
0
$34.29 - $35.88
2