Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $38.52 |
| 5Y Range | 41.08 – 80.62 |
| 5Y Selected | 60.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.27% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.33 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.59% |
| 10Y Range | 31.09 – 53.96 |
| 10Y Selected | 42.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.27% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.44% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7572 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1545 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2057 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1157 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6957 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1326 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5230 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3489 |
| Safety Score | 0.1862 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -8.78% | -7.36% | -5.94% | -4.52% | -3.10% | -1.68% | -0.26% | 1.16% | 2.58% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 41,529.38 | 38,471.06 | 36,184.45 | 34,547.76 | 33,475.87 | 32,912.76 | 32,826.66 | 33,207.11 | 34,063.67 | 35,426.22 |
| EBITDA | 12,400.20 | 11,487.02 | 10,804.26 | 10,315.57 | 9,995.51 | 9,827.37 | 9,801.67 | 9,915.26 | 10,171.02 | 10,577.86 |
| D&A | -1,205.76 | -1,116.96 | -1,050.57 | -1,003.05 | -971.93 | -955.58 | -953.08 | -964.13 | -989.00 | -1,028.56 |
| EBIT | 11,194.44 | 10,370.06 | 9,753.69 | 9,312.51 | 9,023.58 | 8,871.79 | 8,848.58 | 8,951.13 | 9,182.02 | 9,549.31 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,278.43 | -2,110.64 | -1,985.19 | -1,895.39 | -1,836.59 | -1,805.69 | -1,800.97 | -1,821.84 | -1,868.84 | -1,943.59 |
| NOPAT | 8,916.01 | 8,259.42 | 7,768.50 | 7,417.12 | 7,186.99 | 7,066.10 | 7,047.61 | 7,129.29 | 7,313.19 | 7,605.72 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,301.85 | -2,132.34 | -2,005.60 | -1,914.88 | -1,855.47 | -1,824.26 | -1,819.49 | -1,840.57 | -1,888.05 | -1,963.57 |
| NWC Investment | 4,653.39 | 3,558.24 | 2,660.38 | 1,904.22 | 1,247.11 | 655.15 | 100.17 | -442.63 | -996.58 | -1,585.27 |
| (+) D&A | 1,205.76 | 1,116.96 | 1,050.57 | 1,003.05 | 971.93 | 955.58 | 953.08 | 964.13 | 989.00 | 1,028.56 |
| Free Cash Flow | 12,473.31 | 10,802.27 | 9,473.85 | 8,409.51 | 7,550.56 | 6,852.57 | 6,281.38 | 5,810.22 | 5,417.55 | 5,085.43 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 | 3,529,845,333.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,398.57 | 10,507.72 | 8,677.98 | 7,253.73 | 6,132.94 | 5,241.34 | 4,524.21 | 3,940.75 | 3,460.10 | 3,058.52 | Raw: 187,206.91 147,557.42 |
Raw: 126,087.09 73,587.45 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 192,528.38 | 138,783.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,125.62 | 3,125.62 |
| Equity Value | 189,402.75 | 135,657.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,529.85 | 3,529.85 |
| Fair Value | $53.66 | $38.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.27% | 85.27% |
| Buy Price | $7.90 | $5.66 |
| Current Price | $38.52 | $38.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.48% | -85.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,386.95 | 10,462.52 | 8,560.04 | 7,088.40 | 5,937.25 | 5,026.75 | 4,298.51 | 3,709.23 | 3,226.43 | 2,825.37 | Raw: 136,542.31 103,702.04 |
Raw: 91,963.60 49,348.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 148,137.21 | 112,870.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,125.62 | 3,125.62 |
| Equity Value | 145,011.58 | 109,744.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,529.85 | 3,529.85 |
| Fair Value | $41.08 | $31.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.27% | 85.27% |
| Buy Price | $6.05 | $4.58 |
| Current Price | $38.52 | $38.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.29% | -88.11% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,410.31 | 10,553.56 | 8,798.69 | 7,424.54 | 6,337.04 | 5,467.24 | 4,764.06 | 4,189.12 | 3,713.14 | 3,313.40 | Raw: 295,949.77 242,174.74 |
Raw: 199,327.28 126,624.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 287,698.87 | 193,595.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,125.62 | 3,125.62 |
| Equity Value | 284,573.24 | 190,469.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 3,529.85 | 3,529.85 |
| Fair Value | $80.62 | $53.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.27% | 85.27% |
| Buy Price | $11.88 | $7.95 |
| Current Price | $38.52 | $38.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.17% | -79.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 184,214.59 | 366,472.80 | 729,053.61 | 1,450,364.58 | 2,885,326.11 | 5,740,009.72 | 11,419,059.87 | 22,716,847.99 | 45,192,440.39 | 89,904,931.78 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% | 98.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 18.42 | 36.65 | 72.91 | 145.04 | 288.53 | 574.00 | 1,141.91 | 2,271.68 | 4,519.24 | 8,990.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 17.66 | 31.61 | 59.22 | 110.93 | 207.82 | 389.31 | 729.32 | 1,366.26 | 2,559.46 | 4,794.74 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $56.25 | -6.16% | $103.63 | 84.24% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $57.30 | -11.69% | $14.23 | -75.17% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $68.90 | -0.77% | $174.63 | 153.45% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $47.55 | 3.17% | $139.54 | 193.45% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $50.40 | 1.42% | $69.84 | 38.58% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $74.10 | 6.56% | $71.69 | -3.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $74.10 | 16.04% | $30.10 | -59.37% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $74.10 | 35.67% | $-52.20 | -170.44% |
| $25.57 - $45.89 | 780 |
| $45.89 - $66.21 | 194 |
| $66.21 - $86.53 | 21 |
| $86.53 - $106.85 | 4 |
| $106.85 - $127.17 | 0 |
| $127.17 - $147.50 | 0 |
| $147.50 - $167.82 | 0 |
| $167.82 - $188.14 | 0 |
| $188.14 - $208.46 | 0 |
| $208.46 - $228.78 | 0 |
| $228.78 - $249.11 | 0 |
| $249.11 - $269.43 | 0 |
| $269.43 - $289.75 | 0 |
| $289.75 - $310.07 | 0 |
| $310.07 - $330.39 | 0 |
| $330.39 - $350.71 | 0 |
| $350.71 - $371.04 | 0 |
| $371.04 - $391.36 | 0 |
| $391.36 - $411.68 | 0 |
| $411.68 - $432.00 | 0 |