Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.27 |
| 5Y Range | 0.73 – 1.49 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.39% |
| 10Y Range | 0.86 – 1.72 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.17% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1252 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6852 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0010 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1978 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0985 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6370 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2528 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0714 |
| Safety Score | 0.2243 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.65% | 5.47% | 5.29% | 5.10% | 4.92% | 4.73% | 4.55% | 4.37% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,557.83 | 1,643.02 | 1,729.86 | 1,818.11 | 1,907.52 | 1,997.83 | 2,088.75 | 2,179.97 | 2,271.17 | 2,362.01 |
| EBITDA | 165.37 | 174.42 | 183.64 | 193.00 | 202.50 | 212.08 | 221.73 | 231.42 | 241.10 | 250.74 |
| D&A | -65.20 | -68.76 | -72.40 | -76.09 | -79.83 | -83.61 | -87.42 | -91.24 | -95.05 | -98.86 |
| EBIT | 100.17 | 105.65 | 111.24 | 116.91 | 122.66 | 128.47 | 134.31 | 140.18 | 146.04 | 151.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -17.51 | -18.47 | -19.45 | -20.44 | -21.44 | -22.46 | -23.48 | -24.51 | -25.53 | -26.55 |
| NOPAT | 82.66 | 87.18 | 91.79 | 96.47 | 101.22 | 106.01 | 110.83 | 115.67 | 120.51 | 125.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -124.66 | -131.47 | -138.42 | -145.48 | -152.64 | -159.87 | -167.14 | -174.44 | -181.74 | -189.01 |
| NWC Investment | -9.42 | -9.63 | -9.82 | -9.98 | -10.11 | -10.21 | -10.28 | -10.31 | -10.31 | -10.27 |
| (+) D&A | 65.20 | 68.76 | 72.40 | 76.09 | 79.83 | 83.61 | 87.42 | 91.24 | 95.05 | 98.86 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13.78 | 14.84 | 15.95 | 17.10 | 18.30 | 19.55 | 20.83 | 22.16 | 23.52 | 24.91 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 | 432,434,236.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.70 | 14.43 | 14.56 | 14.65 | 14.72 | 14.75 | 14.76 | 14.74 | 14.69 | 14.61 | Raw: 449.41 350.07 |
Raw: 611.63 347.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 422.11 | 493.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Equity Value | 421.63 | 492.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 432.43 | 432.43 |
| Fair Value | $0.98 | $1.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.76% | 80.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.19 | $0.22 |
| Current Price | $1.27 | $1.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.23% | -82.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.68 | 14.37 | 14.36 | 14.31 | 14.25 | 14.15 | 14.03 | 13.88 | 13.70 | 13.50 | Raw: 328.87 246.87 |
Raw: 447.58 233.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 317.84 | 374.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Equity Value | 317.35 | 373.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 432.43 | 432.43 |
| Fair Value | $0.73 | $0.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.76% | 80.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.14 | $0.17 |
| Current Price | $1.27 | $1.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.88% | -86.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.71 | 14.49 | 14.76 | 14.99 | 15.20 | 15.39 | 15.54 | 15.67 | 15.76 | 15.82 | Raw: 705.46 570.45 |
Raw: 960.11 593.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 643.59 | 745.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Equity Value | 643.11 | 744.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 432.43 | 432.43 |
| Fair Value | $1.49 | $1.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.76% | 80.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.29 | $0.33 |
| Current Price | $1.27 | $1.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.47% | -73.92% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,816.80 | 7,841.42 | 12,765.28 | 20,780.98 | 33,829.97 | 55,072.81 | 89,654.66 | 145,951.49 | 237,598.76 | 386,794.08 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% | 62.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.48 | 0.78 | 1.28 | 2.08 | 3.38 | 5.51 | 8.97 | 14.60 | 23.76 | 38.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.46 | 0.67 | 1.03 | 1.57 | 2.40 | 3.66 | 5.60 | 8.56 | 13.08 | 20.00 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $0.90 | 5.17% | $0.32 | -64.52% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.05 | 9.94% | $-6.19 | -689.29% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.34 | 17.09% | $-1.57 | -216.82% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.65 | 12.78% | $3.47 | 110.32% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1.35 | 5.93% | $1.67 | 23.54% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.22 | 5.80% | $-0.57 | -146.77% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $0.70 | 0.24% | $1.81 | 160.77% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $0.96 | -1.57% | $0.28 | -71.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $0.76 | 1.92% | $1.23 | 60.82% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.35 | 4.75% | $1.26 | -6.71% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $0.89 | 6.99% | $-1.38 | -255.80% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.76 | 8.87% | $2.99 | 292.40% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1.86 | 2.10% | $4.26 | 129.23% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.44 | 1.44% | $4.58 | 87.85% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.27 | -6.40% | $0.54 | -76.06% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.51 | -7.84% | $1.51 | -39.89% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.27 | -2.31% | $1.84 | -19.06% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $2.03 | 2.26% | $2.91 | 43.60% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.67 | 11.69% | $4.07 | 143.46% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.03 | 13.68% | $8.87 | 760.74% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.08 | 11.18% | $2.84 | 163.18% |
| $0.59 - $0.79 | 45 |
| $0.79 - $1.00 | 249 |
| $1.00 - $1.20 | 290 |
| $1.20 - $1.40 | 184 |
| $1.40 - $1.61 | 99 |
| $1.61 - $1.81 | 63 |
| $1.81 - $2.01 | 25 |
| $2.01 - $2.22 | 16 |
| $2.22 - $2.42 | 5 |
| $2.42 - $2.62 | 3 |
| $2.62 - $2.83 | 5 |
| $2.83 - $3.03 | 4 |
| $3.03 - $3.23 | 2 |
| $3.23 - $3.44 | 6 |
| $3.44 - $3.64 | 2 |
| $3.64 - $3.84 | 0 |
| $3.84 - $4.04 | 1 |
| $4.04 - $4.25 | 0 |
| $4.25 - $4.45 | 0 |
| $4.45 - $4.65 | 1 |