Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.30 |
| 5Y Range | 28.13 – 62.76 |
| 5Y Selected | 45.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.15% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $17.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 298.54% |
| 10Y Range | 30.67 – 66.24 |
| 10Y Selected | 48.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.15% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $18.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 324.93% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3698 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8235 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0091 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0112 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5605 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8158 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4951 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8547 |
| Safety Score | 0.3771 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.62% | 4.55% | 4.48% | 4.41% | 4.34% | 4.28% | 4.21% | 4.14% | 4.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,045.78 | 4,229.92 | 4,419.51 | 4,614.56 | 4,815.04 | 5,020.91 | 5,232.13 | 5,448.62 | 5,670.32 | 5,897.14 |
| EBITDA | 2,562.78 | 2,679.42 | 2,799.52 | 2,923.07 | 3,050.07 | 3,180.47 | 3,314.27 | 3,451.40 | 3,591.84 | 3,735.51 |
| D&A | -1,072.47 | -1,121.28 | -1,171.54 | -1,223.24 | -1,276.39 | -1,330.96 | -1,386.95 | -1,444.34 | -1,503.11 | -1,563.23 |
| EBIT | 1,490.31 | 1,558.14 | 1,627.98 | 1,699.83 | 1,773.68 | 1,849.51 | 1,927.32 | 2,007.06 | 2,088.73 | 2,172.28 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -358.42 | -374.73 | -391.52 | -408.80 | -426.56 | -444.80 | -463.51 | -482.69 | -502.33 | -522.43 |
| NOPAT | 1,131.90 | 1,183.41 | 1,236.45 | 1,291.02 | 1,347.11 | 1,404.71 | 1,463.80 | 1,524.37 | 1,586.40 | 1,649.85 |
| Capital Expenditures | -21.74 | -22.73 | -23.75 | -24.80 | -25.88 | -26.98 | -28.12 | -29.28 | -30.47 | -31.69 |
| NWC Investment | 18.40 | 18.97 | 19.53 | 20.09 | 20.65 | 21.21 | 21.76 | 22.30 | 22.84 | 23.36 |
| (+) D&A | 1,072.47 | 1,121.28 | 1,171.54 | 1,223.24 | 1,276.39 | 1,330.96 | 1,386.95 | 1,444.34 | 1,503.11 | 1,563.23 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,201.03 | 2,300.93 | 2,403.77 | 2,509.56 | 2,618.28 | 2,729.90 | 2,844.39 | 2,961.73 | 3,081.87 | 3,204.76 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 | 1,673,162,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,187.81 | 2,238.03 | 2,201.34 | 2,163.83 | 2,125.55 | 2,086.57 | 2,046.96 | 2,006.76 | 1,966.06 | 1,924.90 | Raw: 70,581.53 55,598.51 |
Raw: 86,391.46 50,350.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 66,515.07 | 71,297.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,916.29 | 1,916.29 |
| Equity Value | 64,598.78 | 69,381.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,673.16 | 1,673.16 |
| Fair Value | $38.61 | $41.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.15% | 66.15% |
| Buy Price | $13.07 | $14.04 |
| Current Price | $4.30 | $4.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 203.93% | 226.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,185.76 | 2,228.40 | 2,171.43 | 2,114.52 | 2,057.74 | 2,001.16 | 1,944.86 | 1,888.88 | 1,833.31 | 1,778.19 | Raw: 50,354.96 38,220.63 |
Raw: 61,634.24 33,028.21 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 48,978.47 | 53,232.44 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,916.29 | 1,916.29 |
| Equity Value | 47,062.18 | 51,316.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,673.16 | 1,673.16 |
| Fair Value | $28.13 | $30.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.15% | 66.15% |
| Buy Price | $9.52 | $10.38 |
| Current Price | $4.30 | $4.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 121.42% | 141.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,189.88 | 2,247.79 | 2,231.96 | 2,214.78 | 2,196.28 | 2,176.49 | 2,155.46 | 2,133.22 | 2,109.82 | 2,085.28 | Raw: 117,201.55 95,846.13 |
Raw: 143,454.15 91,002.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 106,926.80 | 112,743.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,916.29 | 1,916.29 |
| Equity Value | 105,010.51 | 110,827.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,673.16 | 1,673.16 |
| Fair Value | $62.76 | $66.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.15% | 66.15% |
| Buy Price | $21.24 | $22.42 |
| Current Price | $4.30 | $4.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 394.07% | 421.43% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 19,221.71 | 36,317.57 | 68,618.58 | 129,648.24 | 244,957.93 | 462,824.57 | 874,462.74 | 1,652,213.65 | 3,121,699.57 | 5,898,152.59 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.92 | 3.63 | 6.86 | 12.96 | 24.50 | 46.28 | 87.45 | 165.22 | 312.17 | 589.82 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.84 | 3.13 | 5.57 | 9.91 | 17.63 | 31.36 | 55.79 | 99.24 | 176.54 | 314.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.19 | 5.47% | $14.28 | 130.67% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5.21 | 7.74% | $23.05 | 342.38% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $4.77 | 5.17% | $17.75 | 272.06% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.35 | 7.35% | $16.70 | 283.92% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.07 | 6.33% | $11.88 | 191.88% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.78 | 7.72% | $11.97 | 216.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.17 | 10.40% | $12.53 | 295.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.01 | 11.28% | $6.82 | 126.64% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.76 | 13.73% | $2.84 | 2.83% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.81 | 14.76% | $8.96 | 135.12% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.72 | 11.67% | $9.21 | 238.53% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.02 | 14.10% | $8.92 | 341.50% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.89 | 12.95% | $10.65 | 117.79% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.76 | 8.11% | $4.90 | 30.25% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.57 | 11.98% | $4.58 | 78.07% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.24 | 12.83% | $3.95 | 76.24% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.34 | 13.83% | $6.20 | 164.81% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.12 | 12.05% | $4.29 | 283.36% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.40 | 3.88% | $4.51 | 222.37% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.14 | -0.87% | $4.16 | 265.19% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.13 | -5.08% | $3.75 | 231.45% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $1.13 | -6.47% | $-1.45 | -228.42% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $1.13 | 1.84% | $-3.18 | -381.23% |
| $22.97 - $37.03 | 315 |
| $37.03 - $51.09 | 436 |
| $51.09 - $65.14 | 147 |
| $65.14 - $79.20 | 56 |
| $79.20 - $93.26 | 21 |
| $93.26 - $107.32 | 14 |
| $107.32 - $121.38 | 4 |
| $121.38 - $135.44 | 3 |
| $135.44 - $149.50 | 2 |
| $149.50 - $163.56 | 1 |
| $163.56 - $177.61 | 0 |
| $177.61 - $191.67 | 0 |
| $191.67 - $205.73 | 0 |
| $205.73 - $219.79 | 0 |
| $219.79 - $233.85 | 0 |
| $233.85 - $247.91 | 0 |
| $247.91 - $261.97 | 0 |
| $261.97 - $276.03 | 0 |
| $276.03 - $290.08 | 0 |
| $290.08 - $304.14 | 1 |