Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $28.78 |
| 5Y Range | 25.39 – 60.07 |
| 5Y Selected | 42.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.36% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.31% |
| 10Y Range | 26.11 – 59.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 42.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.36% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.31% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2784 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7306 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5964 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3459 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2972 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3258 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9633 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1235 |
| Safety Score | 0.2202 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.56% | 1.83% | 2.10% | 2.37% | 2.64% | 2.92% | 3.19% | 3.46% | 3.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 23,022.86 | 23,444.43 | 23,937.29 | 24,505.40 | 25,153.43 | 25,886.79 | 26,711.72 | 27,635.35 | 28,665.84 | 29,812.48 |
| EBITDA | 2,991.29 | 3,046.06 | 3,110.10 | 3,183.91 | 3,268.11 | 3,363.39 | 3,470.57 | 3,590.58 | 3,724.47 | 3,873.44 |
| D&A | -853.80 | -869.44 | -887.72 | -908.78 | -932.82 | -960.01 | -990.60 | -1,024.86 | -1,063.07 | -1,105.60 |
| EBIT | 2,137.49 | 2,176.63 | 2,222.38 | 2,275.13 | 2,335.29 | 2,403.38 | 2,479.97 | 2,565.72 | 2,661.39 | 2,767.85 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -514.04 | -523.45 | -534.46 | -547.14 | -561.61 | -577.98 | -596.40 | -617.02 | -640.03 | -665.63 |
| NOPAT | 1,623.45 | 1,653.18 | 1,687.93 | 1,727.99 | 1,773.68 | 1,825.40 | 1,883.57 | 1,948.70 | 2,021.36 | 2,102.22 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,101.52 | -1,121.69 | -1,145.27 | -1,172.45 | -1,203.45 | -1,238.54 | -1,278.01 | -1,322.20 | -1,371.50 | -1,426.36 |
| NWC Investment | -25.80 | -30.76 | -35.96 | -41.45 | -47.29 | -53.51 | -60.19 | -67.40 | -75.19 | -83.67 |
| (+) D&A | 853.80 | 869.44 | 887.72 | 908.78 | 932.82 | 960.01 | 990.60 | 1,024.86 | 1,063.07 | 1,105.60 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,349.93 | 1,370.17 | 1,394.42 | 1,422.87 | 1,455.76 | 1,493.36 | 1,535.97 | 1,583.96 | 1,637.74 | 1,697.78 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 | 1,144,305,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,341.55 | 1,332.31 | 1,274.05 | 1,220.83 | 1,173.66 | 1,131.30 | 1,093.35 | 1,059.46 | 1,029.31 | 1,002.64 | Raw: 43,232.39 33,786.32 |
Raw: 50,419.77 28,863.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 40,128.72 | 40,521.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | -184.59 | -184.59 |
| Equity Value | 40,313.31 | 40,706.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,144.31 | 1,144.31 |
| Fair Value | $35.23 | $35.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.36% | 81.36% |
| Buy Price | $6.57 | $6.63 |
| Current Price | $28.78 | $28.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.18% | -76.96% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,340.30 | 1,326.72 | 1,256.89 | 1,193.06 | 1,136.29 | 1,085.08 | 1,038.92 | 997.34 | 959.94 | 926.37 | Raw: 30,029.58 22,614.99 |
Raw: 35,021.99 18,437.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 28,868.24 | 29,697.97 |
| (-) Net Debt | -184.59 | -184.59 |
| Equity Value | 29,052.83 | 29,882.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,144.31 | 1,144.31 |
| Fair Value | $25.39 | $26.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.36% | 81.36% |
| Buy Price | $4.73 | $4.87 |
| Current Price | $28.78 | $28.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.56% | -83.09% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,342.82 | 1,337.99 | 1,291.61 | 1,249.51 | 1,212.63 | 1,179.95 | 1,151.19 | 1,126.08 | 1,104.42 | 1,086.01 | Raw: 76,573.14 62,121.87 |
Raw: 89,303.41 55,635.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 68,556.43 | 67,717.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | -184.59 | -184.59 |
| Equity Value | 68,741.02 | 67,901.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,144.31 | 1,144.31 |
| Fair Value | $60.07 | $59.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.36% | 81.36% |
| Buy Price | $11.20 | $11.06 |
| Current Price | $28.78 | $28.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.09% | -61.57% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 85,573.35 | 159,050.27 | 295,617.61 | 549,447.47 | 1,021,226.47 | 1,898,095.00 | 3,527,880.18 | 6,557,068.31 | 12,187,246.36 | 22,651,734.99 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 85.86% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 8.56 | 15.91 | 29.56 | 54.94 | 102.12 | 189.81 | 352.79 | 655.71 | 1,218.72 | 2,265.17 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 8.19 | 13.65 | 23.83 | 41.62 | 72.69 | 126.96 | 221.72 | 387.23 | 676.29 | 1,181.11 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $49.58 | 2.56% | $34.73 | -29.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $50.02 | 1.95% | $42.11 | -15.82% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $70.79 | 2.03% | $42.31 | -40.24% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $50.97 | 4.31% | $46.88 | -8.03% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $61.26 | 5.68% | $34.25 | -44.09% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $64.87 | 4.95% | $42.46 | -34.55% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $71.47 | 1.66% | $26.05 | -63.56% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $56.21 | 2.44% | $4.25 | -92.45% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $58.88 | 6.68% | $13.00 | -77.93% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $56.82 | 8.56% | $18.13 | -68.09% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $50.69 | 11.87% | $30.05 | -40.73% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $21.91 | 13.03% | $5.43 | -75.22% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $32.76 | 18.29% | $0.07 | -99.78% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $18.88 | 21.52% | $4.06 | -78.52% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.14 | 22.86% | $1.16 | -87.28% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $5.42 | 24.24% | $-2.23 | -141.16% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $4.44 | 23.26% | $12.31 | 177.28% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $2.27 | 25.34% | $13.16 | 479.62% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.27 | 28.39% | $11.88 | 423.25% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.74 | 22.95% | $8.23 | 372.98% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $2.21 | 15.84% | $2.98 | 34.64% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $2.21 | 7.50% | $5.96 | 169.75% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $2.21 | -7.60% | $-1.15 | -152.26% |
| $17.37 - $47.04 | 780 |
| $47.04 - $76.70 | 174 |
| $76.70 - $106.37 | 29 |
| $106.37 - $136.04 | 9 |
| $136.04 - $165.70 | 2 |
| $165.70 - $195.37 | 2 |
| $195.37 - $225.04 | 0 |
| $225.04 - $254.70 | 1 |
| $254.70 - $284.37 | 0 |
| $284.37 - $314.04 | 0 |
| $314.04 - $343.70 | 1 |
| $343.70 - $373.37 | 0 |
| $373.37 - $403.04 | 0 |
| $403.04 - $432.70 | 0 |
| $432.70 - $462.37 | 0 |
| $462.37 - $492.04 | 0 |
| $492.04 - $521.70 | 0 |
| $521.70 - $551.37 | 0 |
| $551.37 - $581.04 | 0 |
| $581.04 - $610.70 | 2 |