Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4,530.00 |
| 5Y Range | 38,087.44 – 91,387.95 |
| 5Y Selected | 64,737.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.85% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $12,740.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 181.24% |
| 10Y Range | 40,275.72 – 93,234.05 |
| 10Y Selected | 66,754.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.85% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13,137.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 190.01% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6002 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6503 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9195 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1914 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6447 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3177 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0628 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0010 |
| Safety Score | 0.1968 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.48% | 3.53% | 3.59% | 3.65% | 3.71% | 3.77% | 3.83% | 3.88% | 3.94% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,103,375.32 | 1,142,363.68 | 1,183,395.78 | 1,226,591.69 | 1,272,079.49 | 1,319,995.89 | 1,370,486.82 | 1,423,708.15 | 1,479,826.37 | 1,539,019.43 |
| EBITDA | 164,464.87 | 170,276.32 | 176,392.41 | 182,831.02 | 189,611.26 | 196,753.49 | 204,279.48 | 212,212.44 | 220,577.21 | 229,400.30 |
| D&A | -28,981.50 | -30,005.57 | -31,083.33 | -32,217.93 | -33,412.72 | -34,671.30 | -35,997.51 | -37,395.43 | -38,869.44 | -40,424.22 |
| EBIT | 135,483.37 | 140,270.75 | 145,309.08 | 150,613.10 | 156,198.54 | 162,082.19 | 168,281.97 | 174,817.01 | 181,707.77 | 188,976.08 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -34,960.35 | -36,195.69 | -37,495.79 | -38,864.44 | -40,305.72 | -41,823.95 | -43,423.75 | -45,110.06 | -46,888.16 | -48,763.69 |
| NOPAT | 100,523.02 | 104,075.06 | 107,813.29 | 111,748.65 | 115,892.82 | 120,258.24 | 124,858.22 | 129,706.95 | 134,819.60 | 140,212.39 |
| Capital Expenditures | -44,831.48 | -46,415.62 | -48,082.81 | -49,837.91 | -51,686.14 | -53,633.04 | -55,684.54 | -57,846.99 | -60,127.14 | -62,532.23 |
| NWC Investment | -2,577.58 | -2,711.91 | -2,854.06 | -3,004.57 | -3,163.99 | -3,332.91 | -3,511.99 | -3,701.91 | -3,903.41 | -4,117.28 |
| (+) D&A | 28,981.50 | 30,005.57 | 31,083.33 | 32,217.93 | 33,412.72 | 34,671.30 | 35,997.51 | 37,395.43 | 38,869.44 | 40,424.22 |
| Free Cash Flow | 82,095.46 | 84,953.10 | 87,959.75 | 91,124.10 | 94,455.42 | 97,963.60 | 101,659.20 | 105,553.48 | 109,658.50 | 113,987.10 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 | 49,097,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,591.37 | 82,579.93 | 80,395.15 | 78,312.26 | 76,326.26 | 74,432.47 | 72,626.47 | 70,904.12 | 69,261.48 | 67,694.88 | Raw: 2,820,291.47 2,209,868.24 |
Raw: 3,403,477.03 1,959,964.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,609,073.21 | 2,714,088.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.18 | -4.18 |
| Equity Value | 2,609,077.39 | 2,714,093.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.10 | 49.10 |
| Fair Value | $53,141.28 | $55,280.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.85% | 83.85% |
| Buy Price | $8,582.32 | $8,927.76 |
| Current Price | $4,530.00 | $4,530.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 89.46% | 97.08% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,515.04 | 82,225.19 | 79,304.13 | 76,529.91 | 73,894.31 | 71,389.61 | 69,008.58 | 66,744.45 | 64,590.86 | 62,541.83 | Raw: 1,955,501.30 1,476,506.29 |
Raw: 2,359,863.81 1,249,668.80 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,869,974.86 | 1,977,412.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.18 | -4.18 |
| Equity Value | 1,869,979.05 | 1,977,416.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.10 | 49.10 |
| Fair Value | $38,087.44 | $40,275.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.85% | 83.85% |
| Buy Price | $6,151.12 | $6,504.53 |
| Current Price | $4,530.00 | $4,530.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 35.79% | 43.59% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 81,668.48 | 82,939.58 | 81,511.71 | 80,153.54 | 78,862.36 | 77,635.63 | 76,470.95 | 75,366.06 | 74,318.85 | 73,327.32 | Raw: 5,017,935.87 4,081,734.44 |
Raw: 6,055,554.79 3,795,253.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,486,870.13 | 4,577,508.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | -4.18 | -4.18 |
| Equity Value | 4,486,874.31 | 4,577,512.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 49.10 | 49.10 |
| Fair Value | $91,387.95 | $93,234.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.85% | 83.85% |
| Buy Price | $14,759.15 | $15,057.30 |
| Current Price | $4,530.00 | $4,530.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 225.81% | 232.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,970,227.13 | 3,182,138.08 | 5,139,510.37 | 8,300,886.44 | 13,406,863.82 | 21,653,590.73 | 34,972,980.82 | 56,485,291.66 | 91,230,089.59 | 147,346,840.25 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% | 61.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 197.02 | 318.21 | 513.95 | 830.09 | 1,340.69 | 2,165.36 | 3,497.30 | 5,648.53 | 9,123.01 | 14,734.68 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 187.20 | 273.47 | 415.31 | 630.70 | 957.80 | 1,454.55 | 2,208.93 | 3,354.56 | 5,094.35 | 7,736.46 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5,168.32 | 3.98% | $5,249.54 | 1.57% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5,069.31 | 5.13% | $8,294.18 | 63.62% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5,554.46 | 4.50% | $-5,526.32 | -199.49% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6,138.61 | 1.02% | $12,533.01 | 104.17% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6,326.73 | 0.66% | $987.37 | -84.39% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6,623.76 | -2.84% | $5,604.63 | -15.39% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5,227.72 | -7.72% | $6,344.66 | 21.37% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $5,653.47 | -12.21% | $-23,991.42 | -524.37% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3,747.52 | -8.04% | $2,447.01 | -34.70% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1,609.90 | -2.08% | $-30,210.54 | -1,976.55% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1,613.86 | 4.42% | $3,567.51 | 121.05% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1,421.78 | 3.75% | $-7,371.26 | -618.45% |
| $31,238.72 - $59,367.22 | 583 |
| $59,367.22 - $87,495.72 | 285 |
| $87,495.72 - $115,624.22 | 82 |
| $115,624.22 - $143,752.72 | 21 |
| $143,752.72 - $171,881.22 | 15 |
| $171,881.22 - $200,009.71 | 7 |
| $200,009.71 - $228,138.21 | 3 |
| $228,138.21 - $256,266.71 | 1 |
| $256,266.71 - $284,395.21 | 0 |
| $284,395.21 - $312,523.71 | 0 |
| $312,523.71 - $340,652.20 | 0 |
| $340,652.20 - $368,780.70 | 0 |
| $368,780.70 - $396,909.20 | 1 |
| $396,909.20 - $425,037.70 | 1 |
| $425,037.70 - $453,166.20 | 0 |
| $453,166.20 - $481,294.70 | 0 |
| $481,294.70 - $509,423.19 | 0 |
| $509,423.19 - $537,551.69 | 0 |
| $537,551.69 - $565,680.19 | 0 |
| $565,680.19 - $593,808.69 | 0 |