Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $160.20 |
| 5Y Range | 94.16 – 216.15 |
| 5Y Selected | 155.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $27.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.98% |
| 10Y Range | 110.20 – 238.35 |
| 10Y Selected | 174.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $30.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.89% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0089 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2468 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0131 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3596 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0764 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1904 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0096 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0408 |
| Safety Score | 0.1757 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.14% | 5.90% | 5.67% | 5.43% | 5.19% | 4.95% | 4.71% | 4.48% | 4.24% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 116.46 | 123.33 | 130.32 | 137.39 | 144.52 | 151.68 | 158.83 | 165.94 | 172.97 | 179.89 |
| EBITDA | 91.13 | 96.51 | 101.98 | 107.51 | 113.09 | 118.69 | 124.29 | 129.85 | 135.35 | 140.77 |
| D&A | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.18 |
| EBIT | 91.02 | 96.39 | 101.85 | 107.38 | 112.95 | 118.54 | 124.13 | 129.69 | 135.18 | 140.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -23.73 | -25.13 | -26.55 | -27.99 | -29.45 | -30.90 | -32.36 | -33.81 | -35.24 | -36.65 |
| NOPAT | 67.29 | 71.26 | 75.30 | 79.38 | 83.50 | 87.64 | 91.77 | 95.88 | 99.94 | 103.94 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.19 | -0.20 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| NWC Investment | -1.26 | -1.29 | -1.31 | -1.32 | -1.33 | -1.34 | -1.34 | -1.33 | -1.32 | -1.29 |
| (+) D&A | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 65.98 | 69.92 | 73.94 | 78.00 | 82.11 | 86.24 | 90.37 | 94.48 | 98.55 | 102.57 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 | 9,217,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 65.55 | 67.88 | 67.20 | 66.34 | 65.38 | 64.29 | 63.07 | 61.74 | 60.30 | 58.76 | Raw: 1,790.35 1,379.38 |
Raw: 2,236.44 1,239.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,711.72 | 1,880.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 461.57 | 461.57 |
| Equity Value | 1,250.15 | 1,418.60 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.22 | 9.22 |
| Fair Value | $135.63 | $153.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $20.25 | $22.98 |
| Current Price | $160.20 | $160.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.36% | -85.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 65.48 | 67.60 | 66.30 | 64.83 | 63.30 | 61.67 | 59.94 | 58.13 | 56.25 | 54.30 | Raw: 1,349.41 1,001.99 |
Raw: 1,685.64 859.50 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,329.51 | 1,477.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 461.57 | 461.57 |
| Equity Value | 867.94 | 1,015.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.22 | 9.22 |
| Fair Value | $94.16 | $110.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $14.06 | $16.45 |
| Current Price | $160.20 | $160.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.22% | -89.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 65.61 | 68.17 | 68.13 | 67.89 | 67.54 | 67.04 | 66.40 | 65.61 | 64.68 | 63.62 | Raw: 2,646.79 2,116.62 |
Raw: 3,306.28 1,993.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,453.95 | 2,658.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | 461.57 | 461.57 |
| Equity Value | 1,992.38 | 2,196.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 9.22 | 9.22 |
| Fair Value | $216.15 | $238.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.07% | 85.07% |
| Buy Price | $32.27 | $35.59 |
| Current Price | $160.20 | $160.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.86% | -77.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 511.37 | 1,246.71 | 3,039.46 | 7,410.17 | 18,065.92 | 44,044.50 | 107,379.97 | 261,791.10 | 638,243.64 | 1,556,030.51 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% | 143.80% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.74 | 1.81 | 4.40 | 10.74 | 26.18 | 63.82 | 155.60 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.55 | 1.26 | 2.88 | 6.57 | 15.00 | 34.23 | 78.14 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $576.00 | -1.53% | $1.77 | -99.69% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $501.00 | 19.42% | $31.68 | -93.68% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $98.10 | 13.86% | $79.20 | -19.27% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $96.36 | 9.46% | $48.72 | -49.44% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $79.95 | 5.53% | $58.25 | -27.14% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $79.80 | 5.95% | $78.50 | -1.63% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $79.80 | 10.17% | $65.60 | -17.79% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $79.80 | 0.42% | $303.14 | 279.87% |
| $66.70 - $107.59 | 59 |
| $107.59 - $148.47 | 386 |
| $148.47 - $189.35 | 320 |
| $189.35 - $230.23 | 132 |
| $230.23 - $271.12 | 42 |
| $271.12 - $312.00 | 27 |
| $312.00 - $352.88 | 15 |
| $352.88 - $393.76 | 7 |
| $393.76 - $434.65 | 4 |
| $434.65 - $475.53 | 2 |
| $475.53 - $516.41 | 1 |
| $516.41 - $557.30 | 2 |
| $557.30 - $598.18 | 2 |
| $598.18 - $639.06 | 0 |
| $639.06 - $679.94 | 0 |
| $679.94 - $720.83 | 0 |
| $720.83 - $761.71 | 0 |
| $761.71 - $802.59 | 0 |
| $802.59 - $843.47 | 0 |
| $843.47 - $884.36 | 0 |