| Current Price | $89.20 |
| 5Y Range | 5.80 – 12.55 |
| 5Y Selected | 9.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.43% |
| 10Y Range | 6.44 – 12.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 9.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.35% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0810 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7755 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1137 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0907 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0929 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1002 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0856 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0072 |
| Safety Score | 0.1524 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.14% | 2.34% | 2.55% | 2.76% | 2.97% | 3.17% | 3.38% | 3.59% | 3.79% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 13,398.40 | 13,712.52 | 14,062.39 | 14,450.28 | 14,878.77 | 15,350.76 | 15,869.49 | 16,438.59 | 17,062.12 | 17,744.60 |
| EBITDA | 3,093.80 | 3,166.34 | 3,247.12 | 3,336.69 | 3,435.63 | 3,544.62 | 3,664.40 | 3,795.81 | 3,939.79 | 4,097.38 |
| D&A | -1,550.65 | -1,587.01 | -1,627.50 | -1,672.39 | -1,721.98 | -1,776.60 | -1,836.64 | -1,902.50 | -1,974.67 | -2,053.65 |
| EBIT | 1,543.15 | 1,579.33 | 1,619.63 | 1,664.30 | 1,713.65 | 1,768.02 | 1,827.76 | 1,893.31 | 1,965.12 | 2,043.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -422.93 | -432.84 | -443.88 | -456.13 | -469.65 | -484.55 | -500.93 | -518.89 | -538.57 | -560.12 |
| NOPAT | 1,120.23 | 1,146.49 | 1,175.74 | 1,208.17 | 1,244.00 | 1,283.46 | 1,326.83 | 1,374.42 | 1,426.55 | 1,483.61 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,764.22 | -1,805.58 | -1,851.65 | -1,902.72 | -1,959.14 | -2,021.29 | -2,089.59 | -2,164.53 | -2,246.63 | -2,336.50 |
| NWC Investment | -39.85 | -44.64 | -49.72 | -55.13 | -60.90 | -67.08 | -73.72 | -80.88 | -88.61 | -96.99 |
| (+) D&A | 1,550.65 | 1,587.01 | 1,627.50 | 1,672.39 | 1,721.98 | 1,776.60 | 1,836.64 | 1,902.50 | 1,974.67 | 2,053.65 |
| Free Cash Flow | 866.81 | 883.28 | 901.87 | 922.72 | 945.94 | 971.70 | 1,000.16 | 1,031.51 | 1,065.97 | 1,103.78 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 | 861,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 859.30 | 849.34 | 794.90 | 744.80 | 699.87 | 658.98 | 621.71 | 587.73 | 556.71 | 528.39 | Raw: 14,433.58 10,223.97 |
Raw: 16,841.86 7,718.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,172.17 | 14,620.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,915.50 | 6,915.50 |
| Equity Value | 7,256.67 | 7,705.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 861.50 | 861.50 |
| Fair Value | $8.42 | $8.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $1.28 | $1.36 |
| Current Price | $89.20 | $89.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.56% | -98.47% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 858.51 | 845.86 | 784.45 | 728.27 | 678.12 | 632.70 | 591.50 | 554.09 | 520.08 | 489.13 | Raw: 11,738.98 8,020.17 |
Raw: 13,697.66 5,784.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,915.38 | 12,467.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,915.50 | 6,915.50 |
| Equity Value | 4,999.88 | 5,552.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 861.50 | 861.50 |
| Fair Value | $5.80 | $6.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.88 | $0.98 |
| Current Price | $89.20 | $89.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.01% | -98.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 860.09 | 852.86 | 805.58 | 761.86 | 722.53 | 686.60 | 653.77 | 623.75 | 596.30 | 571.19 | Raw: 18,679.70 13,723.09 |
Raw: 21,796.45 10,848.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,726.02 | 17,983.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,915.50 | 6,915.50 |
| Equity Value | 10,810.52 | 11,067.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 861.50 | 861.50 |
| Fair Value | $12.55 | $12.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.76% | 84.76% |
| Buy Price | $1.91 | $1.96 |
| Current Price | $89.20 | $89.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.86% | -97.80% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 36,821.41 | 90,902.85 | 224,416.40 | 554,027.99 | 1,367,756.61 | 3,376,649.13 | 8,336,102.55 | 20,579,753.16 | 50,806,265.62 | 125,427,968.25 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% | 146.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.68 | 9.09 | 22.44 | 55.40 | 136.78 | 337.66 | 833.61 | 2,057.98 | 5,080.63 | 12,542.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.43 | 7.34 | 16.60 | 37.57 | 85.02 | 192.39 | 435.36 | 985.17 | 2,229.31 | 5,044.65 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $29.11 | -0.66% | $-6.67 | -122.91% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $30.21 | 1.28% | $7.58 | -74.90% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $31.99 | 8.14% | $3.87 | -87.89% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $24.27 | 10.31% | $33.28 | 37.11% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $18.28 | 12.28% | $32.49 | 77.72% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $22.93 | 16.34% | $84.78 | 269.72% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $17.82 | 13.68% | $33.68 | 89.03% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $12.62 | 16.95% | $29.82 | 136.28% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $12.98 | 14.09% | $14.69 | 13.16% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $19.32 | 11.12% | $45.39 | 134.92% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $19.31 | 11.82% | $19.42 | 0.57% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $9.53 | 11.04% | $3.37 | -64.61% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.99 | 10.55% | $12.66 | -47.23% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $18.71 | 7.10% | $7.86 | -57.99% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $19.66 | 4.08% | $4.43 | -77.46% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $11.77 | 3.42% | $0.70 | -94.03% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $10.43 | 8.10% | $-6.86 | -165.78% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $3.31 | 5.95% | $-14.39 | -534.68% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $8.92 | 1.96% | $-10.57 | -218.54% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $52.81 | -16.28% | $-5.45 | -110.33% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $42.98 | -30.17% | $-2.58 | -106.01% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $15.00 | -20.59% | $-4.04 | -126.94% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $12.37 | -7.12% | $-2.88 | -123.26% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $15.42 | 7.88% | $-7.70 | -149.96% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $10.67 | 7.94% | $4.33 | -59.41% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $9.96 | -8.67% | $-1.82 | -118.31% |
| 1993 | 1993-12-31 | $9.33 | -10.79% | $-0.37 | -104.00% |
| 1992 | 1992-12-31 | $12.50 | -5.88% | $0.98 | -92.16% |
| 1991 | 1991-12-31 | $12.79 | -2.11% | $2.73 | -78.67% |
| 1990 | 1990-12-31 | $7.48 | 8.02% | $-1.38 | -118.44% |
| 1989 | 1989-12-31 | $7.17 | 8.58% | $1.43 | -79.99% |
| 1988 | 1988-12-31 | $5.78 | 10.44% | $-0.68 | -111.70% |
| $2.59 - $3.57 | 1 |
| $3.57 - $4.56 | 3 |
| $4.56 - $5.55 | 23 |
| $5.55 - $6.54 | 81 |
| $6.54 - $7.52 | 147 |
| $7.52 - $8.51 | 173 |
| $8.51 - $9.50 | 168 |
| $9.50 - $10.48 | 107 |
| $10.48 - $11.47 | 93 |
| $11.47 - $12.46 | 63 |
| $12.46 - $13.45 | 53 |
| $13.45 - $14.43 | 27 |
| $14.43 - $15.42 | 21 |
| $15.42 - $16.41 | 11 |
| $16.41 - $17.40 | 14 |
| $17.40 - $18.38 | 5 |
| $18.38 - $19.37 | 6 |
| $19.37 - $20.36 | 2 |
| $20.36 - $21.34 | 1 |
| $21.34 - $22.33 | 1 |