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Corning Incorporated

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$89.20
5Y Range5.80 – 12.55
5Y Selected9.18
(-) Safety Margin84.76%
5Y Buy Price$1.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-98.43%
10Y Range6.44 – 12.85
10Y Selected9.65
(-) Safety Margin84.76%
10Y Buy Price$1.47
Upside (to Buy Price)-98.35%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0810
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7755
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1137
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0907
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0929
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1002
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0856
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0072
Safety Score0.1524

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth2.14%2.34%2.55%2.76%2.97%3.17%3.38%3.59%3.79%4.00%
Revenue13,398.4013,712.5214,062.3914,450.2814,878.7715,350.7615,869.4916,438.5917,062.1217,744.60
EBITDA3,093.803,166.343,247.123,336.693,435.633,544.623,664.403,795.813,939.794,097.38
D&A-1,550.65-1,587.01-1,627.50-1,672.39-1,721.98-1,776.60-1,836.64-1,902.50-1,974.67-2,053.65
EBIT1,543.151,579.331,619.631,664.301,713.651,768.021,827.761,893.311,965.122,043.73
Pro forma Taxes-422.93-432.84-443.88-456.13-469.65-484.55-500.93-518.89-538.57-560.12
NOPAT1,120.231,146.491,175.741,208.171,244.001,283.461,326.831,374.421,426.551,483.61
Capital Expenditures-1,764.22-1,805.58-1,851.65-1,902.72-1,959.14-2,021.29-2,089.59-2,164.53-2,246.63-2,336.50
NWC Investment-39.85-44.64-49.72-55.13-60.90-67.08-73.72-80.88-88.61-96.99
(+) D&A1,550.651,587.011,627.501,672.391,721.981,776.601,836.641,902.501,974.672,053.65
Free Cash Flow866.81883.28901.87922.72945.94971.701,000.161,031.511,065.971,103.78
Diluted Shares Outstanding861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00861,500,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF859.30849.34794.90744.80699.87658.98621.71587.73556.71528.39
Raw: 14,433.58
10,223.97
Raw: 16,841.86
7,718.83

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,172.1714,620.55
(-) Net Debt6,915.506,915.50
Equity Value7,256.677,705.05
(/) Shares Out861.50861.50
Fair Value$8.42$8.94
(-) Safety Margin84.76%84.76%
Buy Price$1.28$1.36
Current Price$89.20$89.20
Upside (to Buy Price)-98.56%-98.47%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF858.51845.86784.45728.27678.12632.70591.50554.09520.08489.13
Raw: 11,738.98
8,020.17
Raw: 13,697.66
5,784.99

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,915.3812,467.70
(-) Net Debt6,915.506,915.50
Equity Value4,999.885,552.20
(/) Shares Out861.50861.50
Fair Value$5.80$6.44
(-) Safety Margin84.76%84.76%
Buy Price$0.88$0.98
Current Price$89.20$89.20
Upside (to Buy Price)-99.01%-98.90%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF860.09852.86805.58761.86722.53686.60653.77623.75596.30571.19
Raw: 18,679.70
13,723.09
Raw: 21,796.45
10,848.75

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,726.0217,983.30
(-) Net Debt6,915.506,915.50
Equity Value10,810.5211,067.80
(/) Shares Out861.50861.50
Fair Value$12.55$12.85
(-) Safety Margin84.76%84.76%
Buy Price$1.91$1.96
Current Price$89.20$89.20
Upside (to Buy Price)-97.86%-97.80%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$89.20
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH146.88%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue36,821.4190,902.85224,416.40554,027.991,367,756.613,376,649.138,336,102.5520,579,753.1650,806,265.62125,427,968.25
Constant Implied Growth146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%146.88%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.689.0922.4455.40136.78337.66833.612,057.985,080.6312,542.80
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF3.437.3416.6037.5785.02192.39435.36985.172,229.315,044.65

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$29.11-0.66%$-6.67-122.91%
20182018-12-31$30.211.28%$7.58-74.90%
20172017-12-31$31.998.14%$3.87-87.89%
20162016-12-31$24.2710.31%$33.2837.11%
20152015-12-31$18.2812.28%$32.4977.72%
20142014-12-31$22.9316.34%$84.78269.72%
20132013-12-31$17.8213.68%$33.6889.03%
20122012-12-31$12.6216.95%$29.82136.28%
20112011-12-31$12.9814.09%$14.6913.16%
20102010-12-31$19.3211.12%$45.39134.92%
20092009-12-31$19.3111.82%$19.420.57%
20082008-12-31$9.5311.04%$3.37-64.61%
20072007-12-31$23.9910.55%$12.66-47.23%
20062006-12-31$18.717.10%$7.86-57.99%
20052005-12-31$19.664.08%$4.43-77.46%
20042004-12-31$11.773.42%$0.70-94.03%
20032003-12-31$10.438.10%$-6.86-165.78%
20022002-12-31$3.315.95%$-14.39-534.68%
20012001-12-31$8.921.96%$-10.57-218.54%
20002000-12-31$52.81-16.28%$-5.45-110.33%
19991999-12-31$42.98-30.17%$-2.58-106.01%
19981998-12-31$15.00-20.59%$-4.04-126.94%
19971997-12-31$12.37-7.12%$-2.88-123.26%
19961996-12-31$15.427.88%$-7.70-149.96%
19951995-12-31$10.677.94%$4.33-59.41%
19941994-12-31$9.96-8.67%$-1.82-118.31%
19931993-12-31$9.33-10.79%$-0.37-104.00%
19921992-12-31$12.50-5.88%$0.98-92.16%
19911991-12-31$12.79-2.11%$2.73-78.67%
19901990-12-31$7.488.02%$-1.38-118.44%
19891989-12-31$7.178.58%$1.43-79.99%
19881988-12-31$5.7810.44%$-0.68-111.70%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$9.46
Median
$8.92
10th Percentile
$6.48
90th Percentile
$13.20

Fair Value Distribution

$2.59 - $3.57
1
$3.57 - $4.56
3
$4.56 - $5.55
23
$5.55 - $6.54
81
$6.54 - $7.52
147
$7.52 - $8.51
173
$8.51 - $9.50
168
$9.50 - $10.48
107
$10.48 - $11.47
93
$11.47 - $12.46
63
$12.46 - $13.45
53
$13.45 - $14.43
27
$14.43 - $15.42
21
$15.42 - $16.41
11
$16.41 - $17.40
14
$17.40 - $18.38
5
$18.38 - $19.37
6
$19.37 - $20.36
2
$20.36 - $21.34
1
$21.34 - $22.33
1