Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $57.00 |
| 5Y Range | 136.78 – 270.98 |
| 5Y Selected | 203.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.69% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $52.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -8.29% |
| 10Y Range | 142.75 – 272.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 207.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.69% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $53.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.59% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2554 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2930 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1884 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0205 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5074 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9003 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0580 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6511 |
| Safety Score | 0.2564 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.25% | 0.22% | 0.69% | 1.17% | 1.64% | 2.11% | 2.58% | 3.06% | 3.53% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11,065.66 | 11,090.07 | 11,166.92 | 11,297.07 | 11,482.10 | 11,724.40 | 12,027.21 | 12,394.66 | 12,831.89 | 13,345.16 |
| EBITDA | 722.39 | 723.98 | 729.00 | 737.49 | 749.57 | 765.39 | 785.16 | 809.15 | 837.69 | 871.20 |
| D&A | -93.71 | -93.91 | -94.56 | -95.67 | -97.23 | -99.29 | -101.85 | -104.96 | -108.66 | -113.01 |
| EBIT | 628.68 | 630.07 | 634.43 | 641.83 | 652.34 | 666.10 | 683.31 | 704.18 | 729.03 | 758.19 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -165.32 | -165.69 | -166.84 | -168.78 | -171.54 | -175.16 | -179.69 | -185.18 | -191.71 | -199.38 |
| NOPAT | 463.36 | 464.38 | 467.60 | 473.05 | 480.79 | 490.94 | 503.62 | 519.01 | 537.31 | 558.81 |
| Capital Expenditures | -45.76 | -45.86 | -46.17 | -46.71 | -47.48 | -48.48 | -49.73 | -51.25 | -53.06 | -55.18 |
| NWC Investment | 0.85 | -0.75 | -2.35 | -3.97 | -5.65 | -7.40 | -9.24 | -11.22 | -13.35 | -15.67 |
| (+) D&A | 93.71 | 93.91 | 94.56 | 95.67 | 97.23 | 99.29 | 101.85 | 104.96 | 108.66 | 113.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | 512.16 | 511.69 | 513.64 | 518.03 | 524.90 | 534.35 | 546.49 | 561.50 | 579.57 | 600.97 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 | 65,106,044.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 508.97 | 497.50 | 469.15 | 444.22 | 422.85 | 404.39 | 388.53 | 375.02 | 363.65 | 354.23 | Raw: 12,466.54 9,734.01 |
Raw: 14,273.12 8,154.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,076.71 | 12,382.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 325.81 | 325.81 |
| Equity Value | 11,750.90 | 12,057.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.11 | 65.11 |
| Fair Value | $180.49 | $185.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.69% | 77.69% |
| Buy Price | $40.27 | $41.32 |
| Current Price | $57.00 | $57.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.36% | -27.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 508.49 | 495.42 | 462.83 | 434.12 | 409.39 | 387.88 | 369.20 | 353.04 | 339.15 | 327.29 | Raw: 9,197.67 6,920.58 |
Raw: 10,530.54 5,532.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,230.84 | 9,619.50 |
| (-) Net Debt | 325.81 | 325.81 |
| Equity Value | 8,905.03 | 9,293.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.11 | 65.11 |
| Fair Value | $136.78 | $142.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.69% | 77.69% |
| Buy Price | $30.52 | $31.85 |
| Current Price | $57.00 | $57.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.46% | -44.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 509.45 | 499.62 | 475.62 | 454.66 | 436.89 | 421.78 | 409.08 | 398.60 | 390.18 | 383.68 | Raw: 19,236.70 15,592.26 |
Raw: 22,024.37 13,693.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,968.50 | 18,072.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 325.81 | 325.81 |
| Equity Value | 17,642.69 | 17,746.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 65.11 | 65.11 |
| Fair Value | $270.98 | $272.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.69% | 77.69% |
| Buy Price | $60.46 | $60.81 |
| Current Price | $57.00 | $57.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 6.06% | 6.69% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 35,790.21 | 58,034.58 | 94,104.29 | 152,592.08 | 247,431.26 | 401,214.99 | 650,578.52 | 1,054,926.74 | 1,710,585.85 | 2,773,750.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% | 62.15% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.58 | 5.80 | 9.41 | 15.26 | 24.74 | 40.12 | 65.06 | 105.49 | 171.06 | 277.38 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.43 | 4.98 | 7.58 | 11.55 | 17.59 | 26.80 | 40.82 | 62.18 | 94.72 | 144.29 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $52.70 | 0.63% | $58.68 | 11.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $67.85 | -0.35% | $40.22 | -40.72% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $85.25 | -0.46% | $37.15 | -56.42% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $69.95 | -0.38% | $38.40 | -45.10% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $63.35 | 0.95% | $56.81 | -10.33% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $76.00 | 3.62% | $57.57 | -24.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $69.30 | 3.79% | $57.32 | -17.28% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $68.95 | 3.15% | $38.17 | -44.64% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $51.00 | 3.25% | $22.35 | -56.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $51.00 | 6.38% | $106.75 | 109.31% |
| $112.35 - $144.61 | 98 |
| $144.61 - $176.86 | 307 |
| $176.86 - $209.12 | 258 |
| $209.12 - $241.38 | 150 |
| $241.38 - $273.63 | 74 |
| $273.63 - $305.89 | 43 |
| $305.89 - $338.15 | 28 |
| $338.15 - $370.41 | 20 |
| $370.41 - $402.66 | 11 |
| $402.66 - $434.92 | 5 |
| $434.92 - $467.18 | 1 |
| $467.18 - $499.43 | 2 |
| $499.43 - $531.69 | 1 |
| $531.69 - $563.95 | 0 |
| $563.95 - $596.21 | 0 |
| $596.21 - $628.46 | 0 |
| $628.46 - $660.72 | 0 |
| $660.72 - $692.98 | 1 |
| $692.98 - $725.23 | 0 |
| $725.23 - $757.49 | 1 |