Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $139.20 |
| 5Y Range | 186.96 – 384.11 |
| 5Y Selected | 285.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.12% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $66.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.27% |
| 10Y Range | 206.43 – 412.33 |
| 10Y Selected | 309.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.12% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $71.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.28% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9050 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6302 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9816 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2217 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9751 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4431 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9584 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3614 |
| Safety Score | 0.2327 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.63% | 5.45% | 5.27% | 5.09% | 4.91% | 4.73% | 4.54% | 4.36% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,221.71 | 1,288.31 | 1,356.19 | 1,425.19 | 1,495.12 | 1,565.77 | 1,636.92 | 1,708.33 | 1,779.76 | 1,850.95 |
| EBITDA | 130.33 | 137.43 | 144.67 | 152.03 | 159.49 | 167.03 | 174.62 | 182.23 | 189.85 | 197.45 |
| D&A | -7.69 | -8.11 | -8.54 | -8.98 | -9.42 | -9.86 | -10.31 | -10.76 | -11.21 | -11.66 |
| EBIT | 122.63 | 129.31 | 136.13 | 143.06 | 150.07 | 157.17 | 164.31 | 171.48 | 178.65 | 185.79 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -22.14 | -23.35 | -24.58 | -25.83 | -27.10 | -28.38 | -29.67 | -30.96 | -32.26 | -33.55 |
| NOPAT | 100.49 | 105.96 | 111.55 | 117.22 | 122.97 | 128.78 | 134.64 | 140.51 | 146.39 | 152.24 |
| Capital Expenditures | -13.20 | -13.92 | -14.65 | -15.39 | -16.15 | -16.91 | -17.68 | -18.45 | -19.22 | -19.99 |
| NWC Investment | -2.92 | -2.98 | -3.04 | -3.09 | -3.13 | -3.17 | -3.19 | -3.20 | -3.20 | -3.19 |
| (+) D&A | 7.69 | 8.11 | 8.54 | 8.98 | 9.42 | 9.86 | 10.31 | 10.76 | 11.21 | 11.66 |
| Free Cash Flow | 92.07 | 97.18 | 102.40 | 107.71 | 113.11 | 118.57 | 124.08 | 129.62 | 135.17 | 140.72 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 | 10,597,724.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 91.49 | 94.44 | 93.51 | 92.43 | 91.20 | 89.84 | 88.34 | 86.72 | 84.98 | 83.13 | Raw: 2,819.68 2,203.94 |
Raw: 3,507.93 2,008.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,667.00 | 2,904.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.67 | 22.67 |
| Equity Value | 2,644.33 | 2,882.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| Fair Value | $249.52 | $271.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.12% | 80.12% |
| Buy Price | $49.60 | $54.07 |
| Current Price | $139.20 | $139.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.36% | -61.16% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 91.41 | 94.03 | 92.24 | 90.32 | 88.30 | 86.17 | 83.94 | 81.63 | 79.25 | 76.80 | Raw: 2,054.89 1,547.75 |
Raw: 2,556.46 1,346.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,004.05 | 2,210.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.67 | 22.67 |
| Equity Value | 1,981.38 | 2,187.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| Fair Value | $186.96 | $206.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.12% | 80.12% |
| Buy Price | $37.17 | $41.04 |
| Current Price | $139.20 | $139.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.30% | -70.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 91.58 | 94.85 | 94.80 | 94.60 | 94.23 | 93.70 | 93.01 | 92.17 | 91.18 | 90.04 | Raw: 4,465.51 3,623.33 |
Raw: 5,555.49 3,462.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,093.38 | 4,392.41 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.67 | 22.67 |
| Equity Value | 4,070.71 | 4,369.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| Fair Value | $384.11 | $412.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.12% | 80.12% |
| Buy Price | $76.36 | $81.97 |
| Current Price | $139.20 | $139.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.14% | -41.11% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,354.78 | 7,999.09 | 14,693.15 | 26,989.16 | 49,575.13 | 91,062.22 | 167,267.92 | 307,246.59 | 564,366.83 | 1,036,658.92 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% | 83.69% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.44 | 0.80 | 1.47 | 2.70 | 4.96 | 9.11 | 16.73 | 30.72 | 56.44 | 103.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.42 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 2.04 | 3.53 | 6.09 | 10.52 | 18.15 | 31.33 | 54.08 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $76.10 | 7.12% | $82.85 | 8.87% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $81.20 | 6.47% | $69.63 | -14.24% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $126.90 | 2.97% | $79.95 | -37.00% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $137.20 | 1.29% | $100.41 | -26.82% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $108.50 | -0.62% | $98.98 | -8.77% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $86.35 | -0.44% | $73.33 | -15.07% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $76.50 | -0.18% | $74.63 | -2.44% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $65.20 | 0.16% | $62.02 | -4.87% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $48.40 | 1.77% | $47.19 | -2.51% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $35.98 | 0.11% | $85.36 | 137.26% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $24.00 | -0.47% | $46.34 | 93.08% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $18.40 | 1.75% | $85.64 | 365.41% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $23.40 | -2.99% | $78.75 | 236.53% |
| $148.35 - $188.55 | 29 |
| $188.55 - $228.74 | 187 |
| $228.74 - $268.94 | 255 |
| $268.94 - $309.13 | 209 |
| $309.13 - $349.33 | 121 |
| $349.33 - $389.52 | 75 |
| $389.52 - $429.72 | 45 |
| $429.72 - $469.92 | 30 |
| $469.92 - $510.11 | 16 |
| $510.11 - $550.31 | 8 |
| $550.31 - $590.50 | 8 |
| $590.50 - $630.70 | 8 |
| $630.70 - $670.90 | 3 |
| $670.90 - $711.09 | 1 |
| $711.09 - $751.29 | 1 |
| $751.29 - $791.48 | 1 |
| $791.48 - $831.68 | 1 |
| $831.68 - $871.87 | 0 |
| $871.87 - $912.07 | 1 |
| $912.07 - $952.27 | 1 |