Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.80 |
| 5Y Range | 60.98 – 127.76 |
| 5Y Selected | 94.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $17.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 854.21% |
| 10Y Range | 63.36 – 127.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 95.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $17.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 866.49% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7073 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3899 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2832 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0932 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4176 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4062 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0360 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1058 |
| Safety Score | 0.1820 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.22% | 0.64% | 1.06% | 1.48% | 1.90% | 2.32% | 2.74% | 3.16% | 3.58% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,097.86 | 1,104.94 | 1,116.69 | 1,133.25 | 1,154.81 | 1,181.63 | 1,214.02 | 1,252.40 | 1,297.24 | 1,349.13 |
| EBITDA | 548.11 | 551.64 | 557.51 | 565.78 | 576.54 | 589.93 | 606.10 | 625.26 | 647.65 | 673.55 |
| D&A | -64.01 | -64.42 | -65.11 | -66.07 | -67.33 | -68.89 | -70.78 | -73.02 | -75.64 | -78.66 |
| EBIT | 484.10 | 487.22 | 492.40 | 499.70 | 509.21 | 521.03 | 535.32 | 552.24 | 572.01 | 594.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -72.65 | -73.12 | -73.90 | -74.99 | -76.42 | -78.19 | -80.34 | -82.88 | -85.84 | -89.28 |
| NOPAT | 411.45 | 414.10 | 418.50 | 424.71 | 432.79 | 442.84 | 454.98 | 469.36 | 486.17 | 505.62 |
| Capital Expenditures | -38.94 | -39.19 | -39.61 | -40.20 | -40.96 | -41.91 | -43.06 | -44.42 | -46.02 | -47.86 |
| NWC Investment | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 1.18 | 1.43 | 1.69 | 1.98 | 2.29 |
| (+) D&A | 64.01 | 64.42 | 65.11 | 66.07 | 67.33 | 68.89 | 70.78 | 73.02 | 75.64 | 78.66 |
| Free Cash Flow | 436.62 | 439.64 | 444.52 | 451.32 | 460.11 | 471.00 | 484.13 | 499.65 | 517.77 | 538.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 | 134,415,819.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 433.79 | 426.93 | 404.44 | 384.47 | 367.23 | 352.21 | 339.19 | 327.98 | 318.43 | 310.41 | Raw: 11,848.79 9,153.87 |
Raw: 13,872.92 7,737.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,170.73 | 11,402.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 172.38 | 172.38 |
| Equity Value | 10,998.36 | 11,230.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 134.42 | 134.42 |
| Fair Value | $81.82 | $83.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.57% | 84.57% |
| Buy Price | $12.63 | $12.89 |
| Current Price | $1.80 | $1.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 601.41% | 616.19% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 433.38 | 425.15 | 399.01 | 375.75 | 355.57 | 337.86 | 322.35 | 308.81 | 297.03 | 286.86 | Raw: 8,569.34 6,380.28 |
Raw: 10,033.24 5,147.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,369.14 | 8,689.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 172.38 | 172.38 |
| Equity Value | 8,196.77 | 8,516.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 134.42 | 134.42 |
| Fair Value | $60.98 | $63.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.57% | 84.57% |
| Buy Price | $9.41 | $9.78 |
| Current Price | $1.80 | $1.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 422.74% | 443.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 434.20 | 428.75 | 410.00 | 393.48 | 379.39 | 367.31 | 357.08 | 348.54 | 341.59 | 336.14 | Raw: 19,079.83 15,300.10 |
Raw: 22,339.24 13,555.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,345.91 | 17,352.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 172.38 | 172.38 |
| Equity Value | 17,173.53 | 17,179.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 134.42 | 134.42 |
| Fair Value | $127.76 | $127.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.57% | 84.57% |
| Buy Price | $19.71 | $19.72 |
| Current Price | $1.80 | $1.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 995.22% | 995.63% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,509.33 | 5,775.92 | 9,506.44 | 15,646.40 | 25,752.00 | 42,384.54 | 69,759.62 | 114,815.54 | 188,971.91 | 311,023.96 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.95 | 1.56 | 2.58 | 4.24 | 6.98 | 11.48 | 18.90 | 31.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.34 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.17 | 1.80 | 2.78 | 4.29 | 6.62 | 10.20 | 15.73 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.72 | 2.70% | $11.36 | 317.78% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.59 | -0.13% | $8.37 | 133.28% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.69 | -3.60% | $3.80 | 3.08% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.81 | -3.04% | $0.42 | -88.96% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.57 | 11.20% | $2.41 | -47.33% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.85 | 29.56% | $-16.42 | -438.57% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.96 | 32.25% | $7.61 | 27.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.48 | 21.54% | $12.74 | 413.62% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.81 | 2.07% | $4.29 | 52.75% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2.72 | -5.97% | $4.31 | 58.46% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.10 | -1.41% | $3.41 | 10.16% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.05 | 3.68% | $3.09 | 50.55% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.37 | 5.94% | $2.72 | -37.85% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $3.52 | 4.48% | $1.63 | -53.79% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $4.83 | 2.15% | $3.46 | -28.38% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $2.82 | 5.41% | $6.37 | 126.05% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $2.50 | 9.27% | $4.13 | 65.18% |
| $49.16 - $70.38 | 252 |
| $70.38 - $91.60 | 391 |
| $91.60 - $112.82 | 192 |
| $112.82 - $134.04 | 81 |
| $134.04 - $155.25 | 41 |
| $155.25 - $176.47 | 18 |
| $176.47 - $197.69 | 6 |
| $197.69 - $218.91 | 7 |
| $218.91 - $240.13 | 7 |
| $240.13 - $261.34 | 2 |
| $261.34 - $282.56 | 1 |
| $282.56 - $303.78 | 0 |
| $303.78 - $325.00 | 0 |
| $325.00 - $346.22 | 0 |
| $346.22 - $367.44 | 1 |
| $367.44 - $388.65 | 0 |
| $388.65 - $409.87 | 0 |
| $409.87 - $431.09 | 0 |
| $431.09 - $452.31 | 0 |
| $452.31 - $473.53 | 0 |