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Sealed Air Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$41.70
5Y Range22.82 – 45.95
5Y Selected34.38
(-) Safety Margin85.42%
5Y Buy Price$5.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-87.98%
10Y Range27.14 – 50.31
10Y Selected38.72
(-) Safety Margin85.42%
10Y Buy Price$5.65
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.46%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2636
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0036
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7792
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0305
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0050
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5740
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1922
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1222
Safety Score0.1458

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.97%3.97%3.97%3.98%3.98%3.99%3.99%3.99%4.00%4.00%
Revenue5,606.505,829.106,060.756,301.836,552.736,813.877,085.667,368.567,663.037,969.55
EBITDA1,088.161,131.361,176.321,223.111,271.811,322.491,375.241,430.151,487.301,546.80
D&A-186.80-194.21-201.93-209.96-218.32-227.02-236.08-245.50-255.31-265.53
EBIT901.36937.15974.391,013.151,053.491,095.471,139.171,184.651,231.991,281.27
Pro forma Taxes-322.13-334.92-348.22-362.08-376.49-391.50-407.11-423.37-440.29-457.90
NOPAT579.23602.23626.16651.07676.99703.97732.05761.28791.70823.37
Capital Expenditures-225.35-234.30-243.61-253.30-263.38-273.88-284.81-296.18-308.01-320.33
NWC Investment-11.45-11.92-12.40-12.91-13.44-13.98-14.55-15.15-15.77-16.41
(+) D&A186.80194.21201.93209.96218.32227.02236.08245.50255.31265.53
Free Cash Flow529.22550.23572.08594.82618.50643.13668.77695.46723.24752.15
Diluted Shares Outstanding147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00147,075,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF524.64528.62503.78480.13457.60436.15415.72396.26377.72360.06
Raw: 8,890.34
6,297.44
Raw: 10,811.55
4,955.07

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value8,792.229,435.74
(-) Net Debt4,094.524,094.52
Equity Value4,697.695,341.22
(/) Shares Out147.08147.08
Fair Value$31.94$36.32
(-) Safety Margin85.42%85.42%
Buy Price$4.66$5.29
Current Price$41.70$41.70
Upside (to Buy Price)-88.83%-87.30%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF524.16526.41497.12469.47443.38418.76395.51373.57352.86333.31
Raw: 7,303.04
4,989.50
Raw: 8,881.23
3,750.85

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,450.048,085.41
(-) Net Debt4,094.524,094.52
Equity Value3,355.523,990.88
(/) Shares Out147.08147.08
Fair Value$22.82$27.14
(-) Safety Margin85.42%85.42%
Buy Price$3.33$3.96
Current Price$41.70$41.70
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.02%-90.51%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF525.12530.87510.60491.13472.42454.44437.15420.54404.58389.23
Raw: 11,328.56
8,322.56
Raw: 13,776.66
6,857.06

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,852.6911,493.14
(-) Net Debt4,094.524,094.52
Equity Value6,758.177,398.61
(/) Shares Out147.08147.08
Fair Value$45.95$50.31
(-) Safety Margin85.42%85.42%
Buy Price$6.70$7.33
Current Price$41.70$41.70
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.93%-82.41%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$41.70
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH121.50%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue11,809.3126,157.2257,937.35128,329.26284,244.91629,592.771,394,526.473,088,828.466,841,649.4715,154,019.73
Constant Implied Growth121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%121.50%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.182.625.7912.8328.4262.96139.45308.88684.161,515.40
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.102.114.298.7017.6735.8772.83147.86300.20609.49

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$39.413.55%$13.01-66.99%
20182018-12-31$35.326.07%$11.79-66.63%
20172017-12-31$39.606.95%$11.92-69.89%
20162016-12-31$39.609.21%$53.0333.92%
20152015-12-31$39.6010.17%$70.4277.84%
20142014-12-31$39.601.05%$-46.84-218.27%
20132013-12-31$39.60-7.67%$10.40-73.75%
20122012-12-31$39.60-13.33%$15.05-61.99%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$38.09
Median
$36.62
10th Percentile
$26.87
90th Percentile
$51.22

Fair Value Distribution

$18.26 - $21.69
19
$21.69 - $25.11
40
$25.11 - $28.54
88
$28.54 - $31.96
144
$31.96 - $35.39
157
$35.39 - $38.82
137
$38.82 - $42.24
122
$42.24 - $45.67
94
$45.67 - $49.10
74
$49.10 - $52.52
39
$52.52 - $55.95
35
$55.95 - $59.37
22
$59.37 - $62.80
11
$62.80 - $66.23
3
$66.23 - $69.65
3
$69.65 - $73.08
4
$73.08 - $76.51
5
$76.51 - $79.93
0
$79.93 - $83.36
1
$83.36 - $86.79
2