Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $193.37 |
| 5Y Range | 135.03 – 272.96 |
| 5Y Selected | 204.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.01% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $152.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -20.89% |
| 10Y Range | 161.92 – 302.65 |
| 10Y Selected | 232.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.01% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $174.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -9.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8382 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9520 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9680 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8142 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9359 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9725 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3935 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9136 |
| Safety Score | 0.7499 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.45% | 7.07% | 6.69% | 6.30% | 5.92% | 5.54% | 5.15% | 4.77% | 4.38% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,879.37 | 3,082.94 | 3,289.07 | 3,496.37 | 3,703.31 | 3,908.29 | 4,109.61 | 4,305.54 | 4,494.28 | 4,674.05 |
| EBITDA | 2,174.73 | 2,328.48 | 2,484.17 | 2,640.73 | 2,797.03 | 2,951.84 | 3,103.90 | 3,251.88 | 3,394.43 | 3,530.21 |
| D&A | -871.57 | -933.19 | -995.58 | -1,058.33 | -1,120.97 | -1,183.01 | -1,243.95 | -1,303.26 | -1,360.39 | -1,414.81 |
| EBIT | 1,303.16 | 1,395.29 | 1,488.59 | 1,582.40 | 1,676.06 | 1,768.83 | 1,859.95 | 1,948.62 | 2,034.05 | 2,115.41 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -105.81 | -113.30 | -120.87 | -128.49 | -136.09 | -143.63 | -151.03 | -158.23 | -165.16 | -171.77 |
| NOPAT | 1,197.34 | 1,282.00 | 1,367.71 | 1,453.91 | 1,539.97 | 1,625.21 | 1,708.92 | 1,790.40 | 1,868.88 | 1,943.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -235.58 | -252.24 | -269.10 | -286.06 | -303.00 | -319.77 | -336.24 | -352.27 | -367.71 | -382.42 |
| NWC Investment | 4.80 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.98 | 4.98 | 4.93 | 4.84 | 4.71 | 4.54 | 4.32 |
| (+) D&A | 871.57 | 933.19 | 995.58 | 1,058.33 | 1,120.97 | 1,183.01 | 1,243.95 | 1,303.26 | 1,360.39 | 1,414.81 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,838.13 | 1,967.84 | 2,099.15 | 2,231.16 | 2,362.92 | 2,493.38 | 2,621.48 | 2,746.10 | 2,866.10 | 2,980.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 | 107,968,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,822.19 | 1,890.57 | 1,848.55 | 1,800.95 | 1,748.24 | 1,690.93 | 1,629.55 | 1,564.66 | 1,496.85 | 1,426.71 | Raw: 36,566.31 25,901.60 |
Raw: 46,121.11 21,137.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 35,012.11 | 38,057.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,671.93 | 14,671.93 |
| Equity Value | 20,340.18 | 23,385.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 107.97 | 107.97 |
| Fair Value | $188.39 | $216.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.01% | 25.01% |
| Buy Price | $141.27 | $162.42 |
| Current Price | $193.37 | $193.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.94% | -16.00% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,820.53 | 1,882.66 | 1,824.08 | 1,760.98 | 1,693.91 | 1,623.50 | 1,550.35 | 1,475.10 | 1,398.35 | 1,320.73 | Raw: 29,667.65 20,269.20 |
Raw: 37,419.82 15,803.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,251.36 | 32,153.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,671.93 | 14,671.93 |
| Equity Value | 14,579.43 | 17,481.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 107.97 | 107.97 |
| Fair Value | $135.03 | $161.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.01% | 25.01% |
| Buy Price | $101.26 | $121.42 |
| Current Price | $193.37 | $193.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.63% | -37.21% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,823.87 | 1,898.60 | 1,873.57 | 1,842.21 | 1,804.84 | 1,761.82 | 1,713.57 | 1,660.56 | 1,603.29 | 1,542.30 | Raw: 47,505.57 34,900.10 |
Raw: 59,918.81 29,823.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 44,143.19 | 47,348.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 14,671.93 | 14,671.93 |
| Equity Value | 29,471.26 | 32,676.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 107.97 | 107.97 |
| Fair Value | $272.96 | $302.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.01% | 25.01% |
| Buy Price | $204.69 | $226.95 |
| Current Price | $193.37 | $193.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 5.86% | 17.37% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,479.44 | 20,056.26 | 53,781.24 | 144,215.39 | 386,716.24 | 1,036,986.77 | 2,780,699.26 | 7,456,496.65 | 19,994,734.12 | 53,616,250.55 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.75 | 2.01 | 5.38 | 14.42 | 38.67 | 103.70 | 278.07 | 745.65 | 1,999.47 | 5,361.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.70 | 1.62 | 3.98 | 9.78 | 24.04 | 59.08 | 145.22 | 356.95 | 877.34 | 2,156.42 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $240.99 | 8.06% | $43.10 | -82.11% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $161.89 | 9.84% | $54.68 | -66.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $163.36 | 9.73% | $50.61 | -69.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $103.26 | 8.62% | $33.80 | -67.27% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $105.07 | 8.59% | $24.90 | -76.31% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $110.76 | 8.37% | $18.77 | -83.05% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $89.84 | 7.12% | $7.65 | -91.48% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $70.98 | 7.68% | $-2.50 | -103.52% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $42.96 | 12.26% | $-1.89 | -104.39% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $40.94 | 18.44% | $13.88 | -66.09% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $34.16 | 20.70% | $33.31 | -2.50% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $16.32 | 19.15% | $20.73 | 26.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $33.84 | 14.92% | $8.13 | -75.96% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $27.50 | 11.73% | $-3.49 | -112.69% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $17.90 | 10.28% | $-0.46 | -102.59% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $9.28 | 7.84% | $-12.16 | -231.00% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $3.76 | 2.75% | $-31.14 | -928.21% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.41 | -1.86% | $-47.01 | -11,564.84% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $13.02 | -9.08% | $-14.84 | -214.01% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $41.06 | -10.33% | $4.26 | -89.62% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $18.75 | -2.92% | $-160.45 | -955.74% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $8.88 | -1.82% | $-230.75 | -2,698.51% |
| $97.99 - $128.94 | 16 |
| $128.94 - $159.88 | 92 |
| $159.88 - $190.83 | 204 |
| $190.83 - $221.77 | 216 |
| $221.77 - $252.72 | 194 |
| $252.72 - $283.66 | 135 |
| $283.66 - $314.61 | 67 |
| $314.61 - $345.55 | 36 |
| $345.55 - $376.50 | 19 |
| $376.50 - $407.44 | 8 |
| $407.44 - $438.39 | 7 |
| $438.39 - $469.33 | 2 |
| $469.33 - $500.28 | 3 |
| $500.28 - $531.22 | 0 |
| $531.22 - $562.17 | 0 |
| $562.17 - $593.11 | 0 |
| $593.11 - $624.06 | 0 |
| $624.06 - $655.00 | 0 |
| $655.00 - $685.95 | 0 |
| $685.95 - $716.89 | 1 |