Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $501.97 |
| 5Y Range | 360.85 – 560.89 |
| 5Y Selected | 460.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.13% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $275.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.03% |
| 10Y Range | 403.54 – 609.84 |
| 10Y Selected | 506.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.13% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $303.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.57% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9779 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8741 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5066 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8120 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7923 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8231 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3478 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8116 |
| Safety Score | 0.5987 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.02% | 8.46% | 7.90% | 7.34% | 6.79% | 6.23% | 5.67% | 5.11% | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 15,489.20 | 16,799.57 | 18,127.15 | 19,458.58 | 20,779.32 | 22,073.86 | 23,326.00 | 24,519.12 | 25,636.58 | 26,662.04 |
| EBITDA | 9,495.54 | 10,298.86 | 11,112.72 | 11,928.94 | 12,738.61 | 13,532.23 | 14,299.84 | 15,031.27 | 15,716.32 | 16,344.97 |
| D&A | -859.68 | -932.41 | -1,006.09 | -1,079.98 | -1,153.29 | -1,225.14 | -1,294.63 | -1,360.85 | -1,422.87 | -1,479.79 |
| EBIT | 8,635.86 | 9,366.45 | 10,106.63 | 10,848.96 | 11,585.33 | 12,307.09 | 13,005.20 | 13,670.42 | 14,293.45 | 14,865.18 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,076.52 | -2,252.19 | -2,430.17 | -2,608.67 | -2,785.73 | -2,959.28 | -3,127.14 | -3,287.10 | -3,436.91 | -3,574.38 |
| NOPAT | 6,559.34 | 7,114.26 | 7,676.46 | 8,240.29 | 8,799.60 | 9,347.81 | 9,878.06 | 10,383.32 | 10,856.54 | 11,290.80 |
| Capital Expenditures | -198.57 | -215.37 | -232.39 | -249.46 | -266.39 | -282.99 | -299.04 | -314.34 | -328.66 | -341.81 |
| NWC Investment | 185.43 | 189.65 | 192.14 | 192.70 | 191.16 | 187.36 | 181.23 | 172.68 | 161.73 | 148.42 |
| (+) D&A | 859.68 | 932.41 | 1,006.09 | 1,079.98 | 1,153.29 | 1,225.14 | 1,294.63 | 1,360.85 | 1,422.87 | 1,479.79 |
| Free Cash Flow | 7,405.88 | 8,020.95 | 8,642.30 | 9,263.52 | 9,877.65 | 10,477.32 | 11,054.88 | 11,602.52 | 12,112.49 | 12,577.20 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 | 307,550,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,341.67 | 7,712.73 | 7,617.19 | 7,477.33 | 7,308.15 | 7,105.38 | 6,871.86 | 6,610.83 | 6,325.87 | 6,020.80 | Raw: 151,905.82 107,601.90 |
Raw: 193,421.56 88,647.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 145,058.97 | 159,039.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,239.50 | 10,239.50 |
| Equity Value | 134,819.47 | 148,799.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 307.55 | 307.55 |
| Fair Value | $438.37 | $483.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.13% | 40.13% |
| Buy Price | $262.45 | $289.66 |
| Current Price | $501.97 | $501.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.72% | -42.29% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,334.97 | 7,681.13 | 7,517.08 | 7,311.37 | 7,081.03 | 6,822.04 | 6,537.90 | 6,232.43 | 5,909.61 | 5,573.53 | Raw: 123,380.03 84,294.32 |
Raw: 157,099.69 66,348.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 121,219.90 | 134,349.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,239.50 | 10,239.50 |
| Equity Value | 110,980.40 | 124,110.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 307.55 | 307.55 |
| Fair Value | $360.85 | $403.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.13% | 40.13% |
| Buy Price | $216.04 | $241.60 |
| Current Price | $501.97 | $501.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.96% | -51.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 7,348.43 | 7,744.75 | 7,719.58 | 7,648.64 | 7,544.74 | 7,403.27 | 7,226.19 | 7,016.01 | 6,775.69 | 6,508.59 | Raw: 197,013.32 144,736.37 |
Raw: 250,856.90 124,859.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 182,742.52 | 197,794.90 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,239.50 | 10,239.50 |
| Equity Value | 172,503.02 | 187,555.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 307.55 | 307.55 |
| Fair Value | $560.89 | $609.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 40.13% | 40.13% |
| Buy Price | $335.81 | $365.11 |
| Current Price | $501.97 | $501.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -33.10% | -27.26% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 39,639.23 | 104,667.50 | 276,374.85 | 729,768.60 | 1,926,956.12 | 5,088,133.27 | 13,435,230.80 | 35,475,766.29 | 93,673,864.83 | 247,346,114.52 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% | 164.05% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.96 | 10.47 | 27.64 | 72.98 | 192.70 | 508.81 | 1,343.52 | 3,547.58 | 9,367.39 | 24,734.61 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.69 | 8.45 | 20.45 | 49.49 | 119.78 | 289.91 | 701.67 | 1,698.25 | 4,110.28 | 9,948.13 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $273.05 | 9.10% | $233.95 | -14.32% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $169.94 | 8.60% | $162.52 | -4.37% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $169.40 | 9.27% | $162.45 | -4.10% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $107.54 | 9.66% | $112.48 | 4.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $98.58 | 8.63% | $-3.34 | -103.39% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $88.98 | 8.13% | $94.28 | 5.96% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $78.20 | 7.75% | $56.27 | -28.04% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $54.67 | 7.19% | $46.16 | -15.57% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $44.97 | 6.95% | $82.35 | 83.12% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $36.41 | 0.16% | $59.43 | 63.23% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $33.51 | -3.02% | $44.29 | 32.17% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $23.19 | -3.63% | $29.20 | 25.93% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $43.81 | -3.69% | $53.38 | 21.84% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $68.02 | 0.69% | $48.11 | -29.27% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $51.63 | 2.00% | $65.04 | 25.97% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $45.77 | 4.88% | $47.10 | 2.91% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $34.96 | 9.83% | $78.30 | 123.97% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $30.22 | 11.60% | $67.26 | 122.56% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $30.49 | 9.23% | $52.61 | 72.56% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $29.31 | 6.81% | $28.96 | -1.18% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $30.81 | 5.09% | $21.93 | -28.81% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $25.47 | 5.64% | $25.64 | 0.68% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $18.50 | 7.06% | $11.23 | -39.30% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $11.53 | 7.44% | $19.15 | 66.11% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $10.89 | 8.51% | $18.82 | 72.86% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $8.36 | 8.56% | $16.61 | 98.64% |
| 1993 | 1993-12-31 | $8.45 | 8.08% | $21.02 | 148.77% |
| 1992 | 1992-12-31 | $7.67 | 9.70% | $9.44 | 23.13% |
| 1991 | 1991-12-31 | $7.17 | 9.56% | $7.75 | 8.16% |
| 1990 | 1990-12-31 | $6.58 | 10.37% | $4.40 | -33.18% |
| 1989 | 1989-12-31 | $7.25 | 8.11% | $1.77 | -75.60% |
| 1988 | 1988-12-31 | $7.78 | 4.77% | $-0.32 | -104.06% |
| $304.36 - $343.38 | 9 |
| $343.38 - $382.40 | 45 |
| $382.40 - $421.43 | 127 |
| $421.43 - $460.45 | 180 |
| $460.45 - $499.47 | 200 |
| $499.47 - $538.50 | 161 |
| $538.50 - $577.52 | 115 |
| $577.52 - $616.54 | 77 |
| $616.54 - $655.56 | 39 |
| $655.56 - $694.59 | 20 |
| $694.59 - $733.61 | 9 |
| $733.61 - $772.63 | 7 |
| $772.63 - $811.66 | 2 |
| $811.66 - $850.68 | 2 |
| $850.68 - $889.70 | 4 |
| $889.70 - $928.73 | 1 |
| $928.73 - $967.75 | 1 |
| $967.75 - $1,006.77 | 0 |
| $1,006.77 - $1,045.80 | 0 |
| $1,045.80 - $1,084.82 | 1 |