Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $485.15 |
| 5Y Range | 204.86 – 322.94 |
| 5Y Selected | 263.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $105.27 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.30% |
| 10Y Range | 226.04 – 345.18 |
| 10Y Selected | 285.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $113.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.52% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5119 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9169 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0005 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6111 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0386 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6338 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1034 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5814 |
| Safety Score | 0.3989 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.44% | 6.17% | 5.90% | 5.63% | 5.36% | 5.09% | 4.81% | 4.54% | 4.27% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,544.76 | 8,010.47 | 8,483.17 | 8,960.73 | 9,440.83 | 9,921.02 | 10,398.69 | 10,871.12 | 11,335.49 | 11,788.91 |
| EBITDA | 3,775.90 | 4,008.97 | 4,245.54 | 4,484.54 | 4,724.82 | 4,965.14 | 5,204.20 | 5,440.63 | 5,673.03 | 5,899.95 |
| D&A | -358.03 | -380.13 | -402.56 | -425.23 | -448.01 | -470.80 | -493.46 | -515.88 | -537.92 | -559.43 |
| EBIT | 3,417.87 | 3,628.84 | 3,842.98 | 4,059.32 | 4,276.81 | 4,494.34 | 4,710.73 | 4,924.75 | 5,135.11 | 5,340.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -840.50 | -892.38 | -945.04 | -998.24 | -1,051.72 | -1,105.22 | -1,158.43 | -1,211.06 | -1,262.79 | -1,313.30 |
| NOPAT | 2,577.37 | 2,736.46 | 2,897.94 | 3,061.08 | 3,225.09 | 3,389.13 | 3,552.30 | 3,713.69 | 3,872.32 | 4,027.22 |
| Capital Expenditures | -233.56 | -247.98 | -262.61 | -277.39 | -292.26 | -307.12 | -321.91 | -336.53 | -350.91 | -364.95 |
| NWC Investment | 26.93 | 27.45 | 27.87 | 28.15 | 28.30 | 28.31 | 28.16 | 27.85 | 27.37 | 26.73 |
| (+) D&A | 358.03 | 380.13 | 402.56 | 425.23 | 448.01 | 470.80 | 493.46 | 515.88 | 537.92 | 559.43 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,728.77 | 2,896.07 | 3,065.76 | 3,237.06 | 3,409.14 | 3,581.11 | 3,752.02 | 3,920.89 | 4,086.71 | 4,248.43 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 | 181,025,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,705.11 | 2,782.36 | 2,699.76 | 2,612.89 | 2,522.31 | 2,428.59 | 2,332.30 | 2,234.02 | 2,134.32 | 2,033.76 | Raw: 52,608.29 37,264.88 |
Raw: 65,559.85 30,046.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,587.31 | 54,532.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,226.75 | 5,226.75 |
| Equity Value | 45,360.56 | 49,305.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 181.03 | 181.03 |
| Fair Value | $250.58 | $272.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.11% | 60.11% |
| Buy Price | $99.95 | $108.65 |
| Current Price | $485.15 | $485.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.40% | -77.61% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,702.64 | 2,770.71 | 2,664.04 | 2,554.90 | 2,443.93 | 2,331.74 | 2,218.96 | 2,106.15 | 1,993.88 | 1,882.67 | Raw: 42,703.93 29,175.70 |
Raw: 53,217.15 22,475.43 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,311.91 | 46,145.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,226.75 | 5,226.75 |
| Equity Value | 37,085.16 | 40,918.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 181.03 | 181.03 |
| Fair Value | $204.86 | $226.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.11% | 60.11% |
| Buy Price | $81.72 | $90.17 |
| Current Price | $485.15 | $485.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.16% | -81.41% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,707.60 | 2,794.17 | 2,736.30 | 2,672.76 | 2,603.97 | 2,530.41 | 2,452.56 | 2,370.95 | 2,286.09 | 2,198.53 | Raw: 68,293.90 50,172.30 |
Raw: 85,107.09 42,360.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 63,687.10 | 67,713.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,226.75 | 5,226.75 |
| Equity Value | 58,460.35 | 62,486.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 181.03 | 181.03 |
| Fair Value | $322.94 | $345.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 60.11% | 60.11% |
| Buy Price | $128.82 | $137.69 |
| Current Price | $485.15 | $485.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.45% | -71.62% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 20,056.38 | 53,627.33 | 143,390.25 | 383,400.89 | 1,025,148.08 | 2,741,069.76 | 7,329,149.42 | 19,596,885.84 | 52,398,704.53 | 140,105,129.88 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% | 167.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.01 | 5.36 | 14.34 | 38.34 | 102.51 | 274.11 | 732.91 | 1,959.69 | 5,239.87 | 14,010.51 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.87 | 4.33 | 10.61 | 26.00 | 63.72 | 156.18 | 382.77 | 938.12 | 2,299.18 | 5,634.95 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $237.41 | 5.85% | $141.83 | -40.26% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $140.04 | 5.09% | $113.60 | -18.88% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $147.61 | 7.66% | $49.41 | -66.52% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $94.27 | 10.43% | $128.83 | 36.66% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $100.34 | 10.00% | $114.81 | 14.42% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $95.81 | 9.78% | $96.31 | 0.52% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $78.47 | 9.98% | $92.24 | 17.55% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $50.32 | 11.37% | $85.61 | 70.12% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $33.68 | 11.00% | $76.15 | 126.10% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $26.54 | 13.51% | $62.74 | 136.40% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $26.80 | 15.05% | $63.44 | 136.73% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $20.09 | 15.00% | $47.59 | 136.87% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $35.70 | 13.29% | $76.91 | 115.43% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $69.06 | 5.23% | $48.35 | -29.99% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $61.42 | 2.67% | $39.09 | -36.36% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $43.43 | 5.48% | $33.09 | -23.80% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $30.28 | 11.82% | $37.57 | 24.08% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $20.64 | 18.04% | $31.60 | 53.08% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $19.93 | 18.65% | $29.84 | 49.73% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $12.84 | 20.43% | $5.44 | -57.65% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $11.26 | 24.16% | $37.40 | 232.14% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $12.05 | -1.65% | $11.98 | -0.55% |
| $168.53 - $189.79 | 7 |
| $189.79 - $211.05 | 43 |
| $211.05 - $232.31 | 97 |
| $232.31 - $253.57 | 179 |
| $253.57 - $274.83 | 199 |
| $274.83 - $296.09 | 156 |
| $296.09 - $317.35 | 133 |
| $317.35 - $338.61 | 88 |
| $338.61 - $359.87 | 31 |
| $359.87 - $381.13 | 29 |
| $381.13 - $402.39 | 17 |
| $402.39 - $423.65 | 7 |
| $423.65 - $444.91 | 6 |
| $444.91 - $466.17 | 2 |
| $466.17 - $487.43 | 3 |
| $487.43 - $508.69 | 0 |
| $508.69 - $529.95 | 2 |
| $529.95 - $551.21 | 0 |
| $551.21 - $572.47 | 0 |
| $572.47 - $593.73 | 1 |