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HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Equipment & ServicesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$482.73
5Y Range-106.73 – -67.24
5Y Selected-86.99
(-) Safety Margin46.75%
5Y Buy Price$-46.32
Upside (to Buy Price)-109.60%
10Y Range-86.89 – -37.83
10Y Selected-62.36
(-) Safety Margin46.75%
10Y Buy Price$-33.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-106.88%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9692
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9760
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0993
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7303
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3641
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8434
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1596
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6028
Safety Score0.5325

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth12.35%11.43%10.50%9.57%8.64%7.71%6.78%5.86%4.93%4.00%
Revenue79,324.9888,388.1597,666.44107,012.17116,258.94125,225.63133,721.59141,552.78148,528.75154,469.90
EBITDA7,722.168,604.459,507.6810,417.4711,317.6312,190.5213,017.5913,779.9514,459.0515,037.41
D&A-3,870.68-4,312.92-4,765.65-5,221.68-5,672.88-6,110.41-6,524.97-6,907.10-7,247.49-7,537.39
EBIT3,851.494,291.534,742.025,195.795,644.756,080.116,492.626,872.857,211.567,500.02
Pro forma Taxes-887.67-989.09-1,092.91-1,197.49-1,300.97-1,401.31-1,496.38-1,584.01-1,662.07-1,728.56
NOPAT2,963.823,302.453,649.113,998.304,343.784,678.814,996.245,288.845,549.485,771.46
Capital Expenditures-5,445.53-6,067.70-6,704.64-7,346.21-7,980.98-8,596.53-9,179.76-9,717.36-10,196.25-10,604.10
NWC Investment-462.49-480.58-491.99-495.57-490.32-475.47-450.51-415.26-369.91-315.03
(+) D&A3,870.684,312.924,765.655,221.685,672.886,110.416,524.976,907.107,247.497,537.39
Free Cash Flow926.481,067.081,218.141,378.201,545.361,717.221,890.942,063.322,230.812,389.72
Diluted Shares Outstanding247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00247,280,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.49%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF918.451,026.081,073.651,112.461,143.361,164.561,175.441,175.631,165.061,143.97
Raw: 23,960.83
16,972.56
Raw: 37,052.51
16,981.62

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value22,246.5628,080.29
(-) Net Debt44,864.2544,864.25
Equity Value-22,617.69-16,783.96
(/) Shares Out247.28247.28
Fair Value$-91.47$-67.87
(-) Safety Margin46.75%46.75%
Buy Price$-48.71$-36.14
Current Price$482.73$482.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-110.09%-107.49%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.99%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF917.611,021.871,059.541,087.771,107.831,118.121,118.311,108.331,088.401,058.99
Raw: 19,433.83
13,277.37
Raw: 30,052.07
12,692.02

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value18,471.9923,378.80
(-) Net Debt44,864.2544,864.25
Equity Value-26,392.26-21,485.45
(/) Shares Out247.28247.28
Fair Value$-106.73$-86.89
(-) Safety Margin46.75%46.75%
Buy Price$-56.83$-46.27
Current Price$482.73$482.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-111.77%-109.58%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.99%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF919.291,030.341,088.081,137.951,180.381,213.391,236.041,247.681,247.911,236.66
Raw: 31,145.55
22,881.16
Raw: 48,162.81
23,972.07

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value28,237.2035,509.79
(-) Net Debt44,864.2544,864.25
Equity Value-16,627.05-9,354.46
(/) Shares Out247.28247.28
Fair Value$-67.24$-37.83
(-) Safety Margin46.75%46.75%
Buy Price$-35.81$-20.14
Current Price$482.73$482.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-107.42%-104.17%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$482.73
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH124.57%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue167,019.25375,079.73842,326.871,891,636.654,248,100.529,540,076.3221,424,412.1148,113,392.29108,049,570.06242,649,895.07
Constant Implied Growth124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%124.57%
Implied Free Cash Flow16.7037.5184.23189.16424.81954.012,142.444,811.3410,804.9624,264.99
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF15.5430.2862.32128.28264.07543.571,118.912,303.224,741.079,759.25

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$147.8114.39%$176.5719.46%
20182018-12-31$124.4512.30%$141.9214.04%
20172017-12-31$87.8410.31%$68.89-21.58%
20162016-12-31$74.028.68%$87.8118.62%
20152015-12-31$67.638.04%$51.40-24.01%
20142014-12-31$73.3910.22%$57.37-21.82%
20132013-12-31$47.7111.02%$31.62-33.73%
20122012-12-31$30.1711.86%$66.51120.45%
20112011-12-31$22.0310.62%$56.14154.84%
20102010-12-31$31.029.20%$27.03-12.87%
20092009-12-31$31.025.29%$5.09-83.58%
20082008-12-31$31.02-2.10%$-69.68-324.63%
20072007-12-31$31.02-4.70%$-80.42-359.26%
20062006-12-31$31.02-4.25%$-69.47-323.94%
20052005-12-31$31.023.73%$40.0629.16%
20042004-12-31$31.0211.90%$58.8289.61%
20032003-12-31$31.0213.83%$0.54-98.25%
20022002-12-31$31.0214.25%$42.2436.17%
20012001-12-31$31.0212.28%$-11.79-138.02%
20002000-12-31$31.0212.15%$6.32-79.63%
19991999-12-31$31.0212.09%$-11.90-138.38%
19981998-12-31$31.0213.31%$17.10-44.86%
19971997-12-31$31.028.82%$-12.00-138.68%
19961996-12-31$31.024.26%$22.72-26.76%
19951995-12-31$31.02-0.64%$5.22-83.18%
19941994-12-31$31.02-1.24%$1.34-95.67%
19931993-12-31$31.027.45%$12.68-59.13%
19921992-12-31$31.029.42%$-40.42-230.30%
19911991-12-31$31.027.03%$-26.03-183.92%
19901990-12-31$31.025.99%$-14.90-148.04%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-64.68
Median
$-66.85
10th Percentile
$-87.55
90th Percentile
$-39.09

Fair Value Distribution

$-105.76 - $-97.46
17
$-97.46 - $-89.17
59
$-89.17 - $-80.87
142
$-80.87 - $-72.57
171
$-72.57 - $-64.28
172
$-64.28 - $-55.98
152
$-55.98 - $-47.69
107
$-47.69 - $-39.39
78
$-39.39 - $-31.10
43
$-31.10 - $-22.80
22
$-22.80 - $-14.50
17
$-14.50 - $-6.21
5
$-6.21 - $2.09
7
$2.09 - $10.38
2
$10.38 - $18.68
2
$18.68 - $26.97
3
$26.97 - $35.27
0
$35.27 - $43.57
0
$43.57 - $51.86
0
$51.86 - $60.16
1