Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $231.22 |
| 5Y Range | 122.39 – 200.92 |
| 5Y Selected | 161.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 30.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $111.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.69% |
| 10Y Range | 137.61 – 218.09 |
| 10Y Selected | 177.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 30.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $122.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.85% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9824 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9540 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8991 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9365 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9945 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9661 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8120 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6739 |
| Safety Score | 0.6910 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.66% | 7.25% | 6.85% | 6.44% | 6.03% | 5.63% | 5.22% | 4.81% | 4.41% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,416.75 | 7,954.67 | 8,499.25 | 9,046.56 | 9,592.33 | 10,132.03 | 10,660.90 | 11,174.03 | 11,666.42 | 12,133.08 |
| EBITDA | 1,608.61 | 1,725.28 | 1,843.39 | 1,962.10 | 2,080.47 | 2,197.52 | 2,312.23 | 2,423.52 | 2,530.31 | 2,631.52 |
| D&A | -355.40 | -381.18 | -407.28 | -433.50 | -459.66 | -485.52 | -510.86 | -535.45 | -559.05 | -581.41 |
| EBIT | 1,253.20 | 1,344.09 | 1,436.11 | 1,528.59 | 1,620.81 | 1,712.00 | 1,801.36 | 1,888.07 | 1,971.27 | 2,050.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -284.14 | -304.74 | -325.61 | -346.57 | -367.48 | -388.16 | -408.42 | -428.08 | -446.94 | -464.82 |
| NOPAT | 969.07 | 1,039.35 | 1,110.51 | 1,182.02 | 1,253.33 | 1,323.84 | 1,392.95 | 1,459.99 | 1,524.33 | 1,585.30 |
| Capital Expenditures | -156.70 | -168.07 | -179.58 | -191.14 | -202.67 | -214.07 | -225.25 | -236.09 | -246.49 | -256.35 |
| NWC Investment | -4.37 | -4.45 | -4.51 | -4.53 | -4.51 | -4.46 | -4.38 | -4.24 | -4.07 | -3.86 |
| (+) D&A | 355.40 | 381.18 | 407.28 | 433.50 | 459.66 | 485.52 | 510.86 | 535.45 | 559.05 | 581.41 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,163.40 | 1,248.01 | 1,333.70 | 1,419.85 | 1,505.80 | 1,590.82 | 1,674.18 | 1,755.11 | 1,832.81 | 1,906.49 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 | 118,275,000.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,153.32 | 1,148.93 | 1,125.42 | 1,098.21 | 1,067.56 | 1,033.78 | 997.23 | 957.41 | 916.42 | 873.77 | Raw: 23,306.11 15,819.22 |
Raw: 29,507.88 12,947.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,412.65 | 23,319.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,343.78 | 3,343.78 |
| Equity Value | 18,068.88 | 19,975.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 118.28 | 118.28 |
| Fair Value | $152.77 | $168.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 30.90% | 30.90% |
| Buy Price | $105.56 | $116.71 |
| Current Price | $231.22 | $231.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.34% | -49.53% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,152.27 | 1,139.01 | 1,105.58 | 1,069.04 | 1,029.77 | 988.13 | 944.53 | 898.50 | 852.22 | 805.18 | Raw: 18,908.61 12,323.70 |
Raw: 23,940.21 9,635.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,819.36 | 19,620.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,343.78 | 3,343.78 |
| Equity Value | 14,475.59 | 16,276.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 118.28 | 118.28 |
| Fair Value | $122.39 | $137.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 30.90% | 30.90% |
| Buy Price | $84.57 | $95.09 |
| Current Price | $231.22 | $231.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.42% | -58.87% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,154.38 | 1,159.02 | 1,145.82 | 1,128.45 | 1,107.10 | 1,081.99 | 1,053.39 | 1,020.78 | 986.12 | 948.92 | Raw: 30,279.76 21,412.32 |
Raw: 38,337.23 18,352.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,107.09 | 29,138.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,343.78 | 3,343.78 |
| Equity Value | 23,763.32 | 25,795.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 118.28 | 118.28 |
| Fair Value | $200.92 | $218.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 30.90% | 30.90% |
| Buy Price | $138.83 | $150.70 |
| Current Price | $231.22 | $231.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.96% | -34.82% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 16,894.23 | 40,451.71 | 96,857.94 | 231,917.53 | 555,305.47 | 1,329,628.51 | 3,183,674.72 | 7,623,019.97 | 18,252,628.99 | 43,704,262.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% | 139.44% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.69 | 4.05 | 9.69 | 23.19 | 55.53 | 132.96 | 318.37 | 762.30 | 1,825.26 | 4,370.43 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.61 | 3.41 | 7.49 | 16.44 | 36.09 | 79.20 | 173.67 | 381.16 | 836.54 | 1,835.98 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $126.19 | 7.42% | $76.08 | -39.71% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $129.37 | 8.50% | $91.62 | -29.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $115.10 | 8.41% | $96.14 | -16.47% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $75.56 | 6.92% | $46.69 | -38.21% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $65.20 | 4.76% | $54.29 | -16.74% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $50.01 | 10.25% | $68.11 | 36.19% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $41.64 | 14.46% | $76.02 | 82.57% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $27.09 | 15.46% | $49.96 | 84.43% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $21.27 | 12.67% | $47.70 | 124.25% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $24.07 | 6.74% | $24.70 | 2.63% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $19.05 | 6.57% | $65.53 | 243.99% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $16.58 | 6.87% | $47.31 | 185.34% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $21.05 | 6.56% | $60.61 | 187.92% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $19.12 | 4.44% | $11.54 | -39.66% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $20.10 | 2.67% | $47.35 | 135.58% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $20.10 | 3.06% | $-1.74 | -108.65% |
| $102.29 - $113.41 | 10 |
| $113.41 - $124.53 | 13 |
| $124.53 - $135.64 | 72 |
| $135.64 - $146.76 | 120 |
| $146.76 - $157.87 | 147 |
| $157.87 - $168.99 | 170 |
| $168.99 - $180.11 | 131 |
| $180.11 - $191.22 | 104 |
| $191.22 - $202.34 | 64 |
| $202.34 - $213.45 | 56 |
| $213.45 - $224.57 | 38 |
| $224.57 - $235.69 | 23 |
| $235.69 - $246.80 | 19 |
| $246.80 - $257.92 | 10 |
| $257.92 - $269.03 | 7 |
| $269.03 - $280.15 | 2 |
| $280.15 - $291.26 | 4 |
| $291.26 - $302.38 | 2 |
| $302.38 - $313.50 | 4 |
| $313.50 - $324.61 | 4 |