Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $175.88 |
| 5Y Range | 216.02 – 354.00 |
| 5Y Selected | 285.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $95.42 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.75% |
| 10Y Range | 236.84 – 373.39 |
| 10Y Selected | 305.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $102.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -41.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9431 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9099 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3121 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2796 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4890 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7481 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8962 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5562 |
| Safety Score | 0.3348 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.41% | 4.37% | 4.32% | 4.28% | 4.23% | 4.18% | 4.14% | 4.09% | 4.05% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,042.36 | 3,175.25 | 3,312.48 | 3,454.11 | 3,600.22 | 3,750.85 | 3,906.06 | 4,065.89 | 4,230.40 | 4,399.61 |
| EBITDA | 2,812.36 | 2,935.19 | 3,062.05 | 3,192.98 | 3,328.04 | 3,467.28 | 3,610.75 | 3,758.50 | 3,910.57 | 4,066.99 |
| D&A | -882.84 | -921.40 | -961.23 | -1,002.33 | -1,044.72 | -1,088.43 | -1,133.47 | -1,179.85 | -1,227.59 | -1,276.69 |
| EBIT | 1,929.51 | 2,013.79 | 2,100.82 | 2,190.65 | 2,283.31 | 2,378.84 | 2,477.28 | 2,578.65 | 2,682.98 | 2,790.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8.77 | -9.15 | -9.55 | -9.96 | -10.38 | -10.81 | -11.26 | -11.72 | -12.19 | -12.68 |
| NOPAT | 1,920.74 | 2,004.64 | 2,091.27 | 2,180.69 | 2,272.94 | 2,368.03 | 2,466.02 | 2,566.93 | 2,670.79 | 2,777.62 |
| Capital Expenditures | -166.82 | -174.11 | -181.64 | -189.40 | -197.41 | -205.67 | -214.18 | -222.95 | -231.97 | -241.25 |
| NWC Investment | 26.03 | 26.90 | 27.78 | 28.67 | 29.57 | 30.49 | 31.41 | 32.35 | 33.30 | 34.25 |
| (+) D&A | 882.84 | 921.40 | 961.23 | 1,002.33 | 1,044.72 | 1,088.43 | 1,133.47 | 1,179.85 | 1,227.59 | 1,276.69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,662.79 | 2,778.83 | 2,898.64 | 3,022.29 | 3,149.82 | 3,281.28 | 3,416.72 | 3,556.18 | 3,699.70 | 3,847.31 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 | 143,004,926.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,639.71 | 2,672.05 | 2,554.82 | 2,439.53 | 2,330.45 | 2,225.26 | 2,123.88 | 2,026.23 | 1,932.21 | 1,841.74 | Raw: 48,579.24 34,410.92 |
Raw: 59,336.64 27,194.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,047.46 | 49,980.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,515.28 | 8,515.28 |
| Equity Value | 38,532.19 | 41,465.30 |
| (/) Shares Out | 143.00 | 143.00 |
| Fair Value | $269.45 | $289.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.52% | 66.52% |
| Buy Price | $90.21 | $97.08 |
| Current Price | $175.88 | $175.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.71% | -44.80% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,637.30 | 2,661.10 | 2,521.24 | 2,385.38 | 2,258.02 | 2,136.52 | 2,020.66 | 1,910.25 | 1,805.06 | 1,704.92 | Raw: 39,437.24 26,943.87 |
Raw: 48,170.23 20,343.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,406.91 | 42,384.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,515.28 | 8,515.28 |
| Equity Value | 30,891.64 | 33,869.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 143.00 | 143.00 |
| Fair Value | $216.02 | $236.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.52% | 66.52% |
| Buy Price | $72.32 | $79.29 |
| Current Price | $175.88 | $175.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.88% | -54.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,642.14 | 2,683.14 | 2,589.16 | 2,495.42 | 2,405.89 | 2,318.55 | 2,233.39 | 2,150.41 | 2,069.60 | 1,990.95 | Raw: 63,053.88 46,322.70 |
Raw: 77,016.55 38,333.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 59,138.45 | 61,912.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,515.28 | 8,515.28 |
| Equity Value | 50,623.18 | 53,396.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 143.00 | 143.00 |
| Fair Value | $354.00 | $373.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.52% | 66.52% |
| Buy Price | $118.52 | $125.01 |
| Current Price | $175.88 | $175.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.61% | -28.92% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 7,967.45 | 21,078.92 | 55,767.01 | 147,538.86 | 390,333.22 | 1,032,677.23 | 2,732,081.75 | 7,228,077.11 | 19,122,816.79 | 50,591,895.55 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% | 164.56% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.80 | 2.11 | 5.58 | 14.75 | 39.03 | 103.27 | 273.21 | 722.81 | 1,912.28 | 5,059.19 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.74 | 1.70 | 4.13 | 10.01 | 24.26 | 58.84 | 142.69 | 346.01 | 839.08 | 2,034.78 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $209.70 | 6.19% | $113.71 | -45.77% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $174.05 | 4.45% | $110.27 | -36.65% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $178.41 | 2.21% | $89.52 | -49.82% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $177.15 | 0.95% | $72.74 | -58.94% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $184.13 | 2.58% | $80.79 | -56.12% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $163.39 | 4.73% | $72.16 | -55.84% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $118.23 | 6.21% | $62.27 | -47.33% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $135.59 | 7.57% | $98.74 | -27.18% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $130.60 | 9.28% | $-97.80 | -174.89% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $112.55 | 8.77% | $-78.20 | -169.48% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $82.11 | 6.37% | $-97.86 | -219.18% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $60.58 | 2.32% | $-156.11 | -357.69% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $94.14 | -1.00% | $-165.32 | -275.61% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $130.05 | 0.00% | $-133.35 | -202.54% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $89.25 | 1.28% | $-161.10 | -280.50% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $75.30 | 3.75% | $-209.10 | -377.68% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $47.80 | 3.95% | $-160.77 | -436.35% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $39.14 | 2.56% | $-223.20 | -670.26% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $47.31 | 4.67% | $-76.73 | -262.19% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $50.13 | 4.62% | $-63.27 | -226.22% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $34.63 | 2.33% | $-93.06 | -368.73% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $34.25 | 1.41% | $-194.25 | -667.16% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $39.00 | 1.09% | $-623.85 | -1,699.62% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $36.00 | 5.69% | $-337.02 | -1,036.17% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $24.38 | 11.26% | $-176.19 | -822.67% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $20.13 | 14.25% | $-275.19 | -1,467.08% |
| $179.99 - $201.04 | 12 |
| $201.04 - $222.09 | 41 |
| $222.09 - $243.15 | 102 |
| $243.15 - $264.20 | 145 |
| $264.20 - $285.25 | 184 |
| $285.25 - $306.30 | 147 |
| $306.30 - $327.35 | 123 |
| $327.35 - $348.40 | 91 |
| $348.40 - $369.45 | 48 |
| $369.45 - $390.50 | 43 |
| $390.50 - $411.56 | 18 |
| $411.56 - $432.61 | 18 |
| $432.61 - $453.66 | 12 |
| $453.66 - $474.71 | 7 |
| $474.71 - $495.76 | 3 |
| $495.76 - $516.81 | 2 |
| $516.81 - $537.86 | 2 |
| $537.86 - $558.92 | 0 |
| $558.92 - $579.97 | 1 |
| $579.97 - $601.02 | 1 |