Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.88 |
| 5Y Range | 2.67 – 5.48 |
| 5Y Selected | 4.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.22% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.66% |
| 10Y Range | 2.78 – 5.52 |
| 10Y Selected | 4.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.22% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1949 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7383 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2902 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3318 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0508 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0746 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2691 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2748 |
| Safety Score | 0.2045 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.19% | 2.39% | 2.59% | 2.79% | 2.99% | 3.19% | 3.40% | 3.60% | 3.80% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 58.88 | 60.29 | 61.85 | 63.58 | 65.48 | 67.57 | 69.87 | 72.38 | 75.13 | 78.14 |
| EBITDA | 24.53 | 25.12 | 25.77 | 26.49 | 27.28 | 28.15 | 29.11 | 30.16 | 31.30 | 32.55 |
| D&A | -2.53 | -2.59 | -2.65 | -2.73 | -2.81 | -2.90 | -3.00 | -3.11 | -3.22 | -3.35 |
| EBIT | 22.01 | 22.53 | 23.11 | 23.76 | 24.47 | 25.25 | 26.11 | 27.05 | 28.08 | 29.20 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.68 | -2.74 | -2.81 | -2.89 | -2.98 | -3.07 | -3.17 | -3.29 | -3.41 | -3.55 |
| NOPAT | 19.33 | 19.79 | 20.30 | 20.87 | 21.50 | 22.18 | 22.94 | 23.76 | 24.66 | 25.65 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.26 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.29 | -0.30 | -0.31 | -0.33 |
| NWC Investment | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| (+) D&A | 2.53 | 2.59 | 2.65 | 2.73 | 2.81 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 3.22 | 3.35 |
| Free Cash Flow | 21.60 | 22.12 | 22.69 | 23.33 | 24.02 | 24.79 | 25.63 | 26.55 | 27.56 | 28.66 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 | 183,745,754.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21.46 | 21.48 | 20.63 | 19.85 | 19.14 | 18.50 | 17.91 | 17.38 | 16.89 | 16.45 | Raw: 647.02 498.92 |
Raw: 771.97 428.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 601.48 | 618.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.65 | -45.65 |
| Equity Value | 647.13 | 664.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 183.75 | 183.75 |
| Fair Value | $3.52 | $3.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.22% | 82.22% |
| Buy Price | $0.63 | $0.64 |
| Current Price | $1.88 | $1.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.66% | -65.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21.44 | 21.39 | 20.36 | 19.40 | 18.53 | 17.75 | 17.02 | 16.36 | 15.76 | 15.20 | Raw: 462.43 343.66 |
Raw: 551.73 281.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 444.77 | 465.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.65 | -45.65 |
| Equity Value | 490.42 | 510.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 183.75 | 183.75 |
| Fair Value | $2.67 | $2.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.22% | 82.22% |
| Buy Price | $0.47 | $0.49 |
| Current Price | $1.88 | $1.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.73% | -73.69% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21.48 | 21.57 | 20.92 | 20.31 | 19.78 | 19.29 | 18.86 | 18.46 | 18.12 | 17.81 | Raw: 1,070.02 856.41 |
Raw: 1,276.65 771.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 960.47 | 967.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.65 | -45.65 |
| Equity Value | 1,006.11 | 1,013.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 183.75 | 183.75 |
| Fair Value | $5.48 | $5.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.22% | 82.22% |
| Buy Price | $0.97 | $0.98 |
| Current Price | $1.88 | $1.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.16% | -47.77% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 130.05 | 299.72 | 690.77 | 1,592.00 | 3,669.06 | 8,456.04 | 19,488.53 | 44,914.96 | 103,514.95 | 238,569.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% | 130.47% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.85 | 1.95 | 4.49 | 10.35 | 23.86 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.55 | 1.19 | 2.58 | 5.56 | 12.01 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.36 | 2.88% | $-0.18 | -107.54% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.54 | 3.71% | $-0.61 | -139.66% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.77 | 12.92% | $-0.87 | -149.07% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.25 | 8.62% | $-1.02 | -181.26% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1.00 | 1.15% | $-0.45 | -145.03% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $0.83 | -5.40% | $1.55 | 87.65% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.14 | -18.07% | $-0.41 | -136.23% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $0.84 | -11.91% | $-1.24 | -248.17% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.01 | -1.01% | $-1.58 | -256.19% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.78 | 2.57% | $1.09 | -38.56% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.34 | 57.08% | $-3.73 | -378.68% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.95 | 79.64% | $-23.11 | -2,532.65% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.40 | 75.21% | $72.84 | 2,042.24% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.95 | 52.22% | $13.86 | 369.79% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.84 | 23.66% | $3.24 | 14.26% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.30 | -41.58% | $0.36 | -84.23% |
| $2.14 - $2.75 | 85 |
| $2.75 - $3.36 | 297 |
| $3.36 - $3.97 | 260 |
| $3.97 - $4.58 | 142 |
| $4.58 - $5.19 | 83 |
| $5.19 - $5.80 | 43 |
| $5.80 - $6.41 | 32 |
| $6.41 - $7.02 | 17 |
| $7.02 - $7.63 | 11 |
| $7.63 - $8.24 | 10 |
| $8.24 - $8.85 | 4 |
| $8.85 - $9.46 | 2 |
| $9.46 - $10.07 | 3 |
| $10.07 - $10.68 | 1 |
| $10.68 - $11.29 | 1 |
| $11.29 - $11.90 | 2 |
| $11.90 - $12.51 | 4 |
| $12.51 - $13.12 | 1 |
| $13.12 - $13.73 | 1 |
| $13.73 - $14.34 | 1 |