Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $3,805.00 |
| 5Y Range | 32,909.32 – 79,289.14 |
| 5Y Selected | 56,099.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.22% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $14,552.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 282.45% |
| 10Y Range | 35,168.11 – 81,867.28 |
| 10Y Selected | 58,517.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.22% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15,179.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 298.94% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7653 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9417 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6811 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1311 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7605 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6819 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0252 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1456 |
| Safety Score | 0.2594 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.76% | 4.68% | 4.59% | 4.51% | 4.42% | 4.34% | 4.25% | 4.17% | 4.08% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 929,985.43 | 973,486.42 | 1,018,197.67 | 1,064,100.04 | 1,111,170.50 | 1,159,381.96 | 1,208,703.22 | 1,259,098.89 | 1,310,529.30 | 1,362,950.47 |
| EBITDA | 239,857.85 | 251,077.44 | 262,609.17 | 274,448.11 | 286,588.32 | 299,022.81 | 311,743.54 | 324,741.38 | 338,006.09 | 351,526.33 |
| D&A | -43,519.58 | -45,555.25 | -47,647.55 | -49,795.60 | -51,998.31 | -54,254.41 | -56,562.45 | -58,920.76 | -61,327.50 | -63,780.60 |
| EBIT | 196,338.27 | 205,522.19 | 214,961.61 | 224,652.51 | 234,590.01 | 244,768.40 | 255,181.10 | 265,820.61 | 276,678.59 | 287,745.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -86,980.01 | -91,048.58 | -95,230.35 | -99,523.53 | -103,925.95 | -108,435.09 | -113,048.03 | -117,761.45 | -122,571.65 | -127,474.52 |
| NOPAT | 109,358.26 | 114,473.60 | 119,731.26 | 125,128.98 | 130,664.06 | 136,333.31 | 142,133.07 | 148,059.17 | 154,106.94 | 160,271.22 |
| Capital Expenditures | -48,206.93 | -50,461.86 | -52,779.52 | -55,158.93 | -57,598.88 | -60,097.98 | -62,654.61 | -65,266.93 | -67,932.89 | -70,650.21 |
| NWC Investment | -6,647.83 | -6,840.55 | -7,030.87 | -7,218.17 | -7,401.85 | -7,581.28 | -7,755.79 | -7,924.75 | -8,087.46 | -8,243.26 |
| (+) D&A | 43,519.58 | 45,555.25 | 47,647.55 | 49,795.60 | 51,998.31 | 54,254.41 | 56,562.45 | 58,920.76 | 61,327.50 | 63,780.60 |
| Free Cash Flow | 98,023.08 | 102,726.44 | 107,568.42 | 112,547.48 | 117,661.63 | 122,908.46 | 128,285.11 | 133,788.25 | 139,414.09 | 145,158.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 | 70,250,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 97,405.11 | 99,781.00 | 98,080.88 | 96,331.71 | 94,537.10 | 92,700.72 | 90,826.28 | 88,917.48 | 86,978.07 | 85,011.77 | Raw: 3,526,036.32 2,744,865.96 |
Raw: 4,350,046.80 2,468,299.94 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,231,001.74 | 3,398,870.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 245.75 | 245.75 |
| Equity Value | 3,230,755.99 | 3,398,624.30 |
| (/) Shares Out | 70.25 | 70.25 |
| Fair Value | $45,989.25 | $48,378.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.22% | 77.22% |
| Buy Price | $10,476.35 | $11,020.70 |
| Current Price | $3,805.00 | $3,805.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 175.33% | 189.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 97,314.14 | 99,353.06 | 96,752.01 | 94,142.80 | 91,529.77 | 88,917.13 | 86,309.00 | 83,709.34 | 81,122.02 | 78,550.74 | Raw: 2,443,468.68 1,833,041.74 |
Raw: 3,014,490.53 1,573,114.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,312,133.52 | 2,470,814.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | 245.75 | 245.75 |
| Equity Value | 2,311,887.78 | 2,470,568.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 70.25 | 70.25 |
| Fair Value | $32,909.32 | $35,168.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.22% | 77.22% |
| Buy Price | $7,496.74 | $8,011.30 |
| Current Price | $3,805.00 | $3,805.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 97.02% | 110.55% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 97,497.02 | 100,214.83 | 99,440.79 | 98,592.87 | 97,673.01 | 96,683.30 | 95,625.98 | 94,503.44 | 93,318.18 | 92,072.85 | Raw: 6,282,676.72 5,076,909.33 |
Raw: 7,750,895.12 4,785,820.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,570,327.86 | 5,751,442.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 245.75 | 245.75 |
| Equity Value | 5,570,082.11 | 5,751,197.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 70.25 | 70.25 |
| Fair Value | $79,289.14 | $81,867.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.22% | 77.22% |
| Buy Price | $18,062.07 | $18,649.37 |
| Current Price | $3,805.00 | $3,805.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 374.69% | 390.13% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,591,285.78 | 2,706,759.25 | 4,604,167.08 | 7,831,636.50 | 13,321,525.74 | 22,659,765.68 | 38,544,006.94 | 65,562,922.94 | 111,521,795.62 | 189,697,321.90 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% | 70.10% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 159.13 | 270.68 | 460.42 | 783.16 | 1,332.15 | 2,265.98 | 3,854.40 | 6,556.29 | 11,152.18 | 18,969.73 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 150.99 | 231.68 | 369.93 | 590.68 | 943.17 | 1,506.00 | 2,404.69 | 3,839.68 | 6,130.99 | 9,789.63 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5,697.19 | 4.27% | $10,995.85 | 93.00% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6,262.94 | 6.86% | $41,252.00 | 558.67% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7,190.54 | 4.45% | $-13,651.14 | -289.85% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $7,292.34 | 3.54% | $-20,315.03 | -378.58% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $7,367.70 | 2.03% | $-17,504.65 | -337.59% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1,949.45 | 2.51% | $-18,133.75 | -1,030.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1,942.61 | 4.45% | $-29,790.12 | -1,633.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1,708.65 | 4.51% | $-20,198.15 | -1,282.11% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1,698.19 | 4.84% | $-41,907.65 | -2,567.78% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1,789.84 | 2.73% | $-19,934.92 | -1,213.78% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1,340.03 | 1.14% | $-26,743.27 | -2,095.72% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $671.20 | -1.96% | $-15,259.09 | -2,373.40% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1,758.46 | -2.15% | $-8,215.17 | -567.18% |
| $25,498.84 - $110,783.13 | 965 |
| $110,783.13 - $196,067.42 | 26 |
| $196,067.42 - $281,351.72 | 5 |
| $281,351.72 - $366,636.01 | 2 |
| $366,636.01 - $451,920.30 | 0 |
| $451,920.30 - $537,204.59 | 0 |
| $537,204.59 - $622,488.88 | 1 |
| $622,488.88 - $707,773.17 | 0 |
| $707,773.17 - $793,057.47 | 0 |
| $793,057.47 - $878,341.76 | 0 |
| $878,341.76 - $963,626.05 | 0 |
| $963,626.05 - $1,048,910.34 | 0 |
| $1,048,910.34 - $1,134,194.63 | 0 |
| $1,134,194.63 - $1,219,478.93 | 0 |
| $1,219,478.93 - $1,304,763.22 | 0 |
| $1,304,763.22 - $1,390,047.51 | 0 |
| $1,390,047.51 - $1,475,331.80 | 0 |
| $1,475,331.80 - $1,560,616.09 | 0 |
| $1,560,616.09 - $1,645,900.38 | 0 |
| $1,645,900.38 - $1,731,184.68 | 1 |