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China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$6.89
5Y Range-56.01 – -24.35
5Y Selected-40.18
(-) Safety Margin59.13%
5Y Buy Price$-17.72
Upside (to Buy Price)-357.22%
10Y Range-57.90 – -25.94
10Y Selected-41.92
(-) Safety Margin59.13%
10Y Buy Price$-18.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-368.38%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4000
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8986
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0678
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7468
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8509
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9619
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0642
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1664
Safety Score0.4411

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth6.63%6.34%6.04%5.75%5.46%5.17%4.88%4.58%4.29%4.00%
Revenue39,526.7142,031.2044,571.6547,135.4849,709.1352,278.1554,827.2857,340.5959,801.6662,193.73
EBITDA15,375.0916,349.2917,337.4718,334.7419,335.8520,335.1421,326.7022,304.3323,261.6324,192.10
D&A-10,931.69-11,624.34-12,326.94-13,036.00-13,747.78-14,458.28-15,163.28-15,858.37-16,539.02-17,200.58
EBIT4,443.404,724.955,010.535,298.745,588.065,876.866,163.426,445.956,722.616,991.52
Pro forma Taxes-751.21-798.81-847.09-895.81-944.73-993.55-1,042.00-1,089.76-1,136.54-1,182.00
NOPAT3,692.193,926.144,163.444,402.934,643.334,883.315,121.425,356.195,586.085,809.52
Capital Expenditures-21,779.35-23,159.34-24,559.13-25,971.81-27,389.90-28,805.44-30,210.02-31,594.86-32,950.92-34,268.95
NWC Investment-449.49-458.17-464.74-469.02-470.82-469.97-466.33-459.78-450.22-437.60
(+) D&A10,931.6911,624.3412,326.9413,036.0013,747.7814,458.2815,163.2815,858.3716,539.0217,200.58
Free Cash Flow-7,604.96-8,067.02-8,533.49-9,001.90-9,469.60-9,933.82-10,391.65-10,840.08-11,276.05-11,696.45
Diluted Shares Outstanding8,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.508,359,423,034.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.49%Terminal Growth: 3.06%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-7,557.29-7,841.96-7,789.86-7,711.79-7,618.06-7,504.48-7,371.91-7,221.37-7,054.00-6,871.07
Raw: -284,675.44
-221,926.04
Raw: -351,619.06
-200,164.97

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-260,444.99-274,706.74
(-) Net Debt17,523.8417,523.84
Equity Value-277,968.83-292,230.57
(/) Shares Out8,359.428,359.42
Fair Value$-33.25$-34.96
(-) Safety Margin59.13%59.13%
Buy Price$-13.59$-14.29
Current Price$6.89$6.89
Upside (to Buy Price)-297.24%-307.36%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.49%Terminal Growth: 2.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF-7,550.23-7,809.04-7,685.00-7,536.50-7,375.63-7,198.07-7,005.13-6,798.24-6,578.90-6,348.67
Raw: -197,069.58
-148,048.24
Raw: -243,412.01
-127,434.46

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-186,004.65-199,319.88
(-) Net Debt17,523.8417,523.84
Equity Value-203,528.48-216,843.72
(/) Shares Out8,359.428,359.42
Fair Value$-24.35$-25.94
(-) Safety Margin59.13%59.13%
Buy Price$-9.95$-10.60
Current Price$6.89$6.89
Upside (to Buy Price)-244.42%-253.87%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.49%Terminal Growth: 3.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF-7,564.43-7,875.32-7,897.16-7,892.87-7,870.85-7,827.00-7,761.62-7,675.19-7,568.38-7,441.99
Raw: -508,576.27
-411,567.05
Raw: -628,171.91
-389,142.00

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-450,667.69-466,516.83
(-) Net Debt17,523.8417,523.84
Equity Value-468,191.53-484,040.66
(/) Shares Out8,359.428,359.42
Fair Value$-56.01$-57.90
(-) Safety Margin59.13%59.13%
Buy Price$-22.89$-23.67
Current Price$6.89$6.89
Upside (to Buy Price)-432.23%-443.47%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$6.89
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH108.94%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue70,710.88147,740.16308,681.70644,945.801,347,521.042,815,450.455,882,476.7912,290,585.0525,679,401.0953,653,397.09
Constant Implied Growth108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%108.94%
Implied Free Cash Flow7.0714.7730.8764.49134.75281.55588.251,229.062,567.945,365.34
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF6.7712.6624.8348.7295.59187.56367.99722.011,416.602,779.39

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$4.404.94%$-4.79-208.96%
20182018-12-31$4.689.63%$7.4158.36%
20172017-12-31$4.6911.00%$2.49-46.80%
20162016-12-31$5.428.52%$-8.74-261.31%
20152015-12-31$4.904.81%$-10.33-310.73%
20142014-12-31$6.427.82%$-22.48-450.13%
20132013-12-31$7.799.83%$1.50-80.71%
20122012-12-31$4.317.09%$-23.23-639.07%
20112011-12-31$4.923.44%$-24.61-600.19%
20102010-12-31$6.031.83%$-34.35-669.64%
20092009-12-31$8.845.65%$-29.20-430.26%
20082008-12-31$7.867.52%$-36.86-568.90%
20072007-12-31$8.3612.99%$-28.15-436.77%
20062006-12-31$8.9417.87%$-12.20-236.49%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-41.66
Median
$-35.31
10th Percentile
$-55.75
90th Percentile
$-26.39

Fair Value Distribution

$-979.17 - $-931.12
1
$-931.12 - $-883.08
0
$-883.08 - $-835.03
0
$-835.03 - $-786.98
0
$-786.98 - $-738.93
0
$-738.93 - $-690.89
0
$-690.89 - $-642.84
0
$-642.84 - $-594.79
0
$-594.79 - $-546.75
0
$-546.75 - $-498.70
0
$-498.70 - $-450.65
0
$-450.65 - $-402.60
1
$-402.60 - $-354.56
0
$-354.56 - $-306.51
0
$-306.51 - $-258.46
1
$-258.46 - $-210.42
1
$-210.42 - $-162.37
3
$-162.37 - $-114.32
8
$-114.32 - $-66.27
53
$-66.27 - $-18.23
931