Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.14 |
| 5Y Range | 2.07 – 3.82 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.42% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.46% |
| 10Y Range | 1.88 – 3.24 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.42% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.56% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8456 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0033 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8510 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3672 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9661 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0362 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9662 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2649 |
| Safety Score | 0.1803 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -5.64% | -4.57% | -3.49% | -2.42% | -1.35% | -0.28% | 0.79% | 1.86% | 2.93% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,309.78 | 1,249.98 | 1,206.30 | 1,177.06 | 1,161.13 | 1,157.84 | 1,166.97 | 1,188.66 | 1,223.48 | 1,272.41 |
| EBITDA | 65.97 | 62.96 | 60.76 | 59.28 | 58.48 | 58.32 | 58.77 | 59.87 | 61.62 | 64.09 |
| D&A | -31.59 | -30.15 | -29.10 | -28.39 | -28.01 | -27.93 | -28.15 | -28.67 | -29.51 | -30.69 |
| EBIT | 34.37 | 32.80 | 31.66 | 30.89 | 30.47 | 30.39 | 30.62 | 31.19 | 32.11 | 33.39 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3.76 | -3.59 | -3.46 | -3.38 | -3.33 | -3.32 | -3.35 | -3.41 | -3.51 | -3.65 |
| NOPAT | 30.61 | 29.22 | 28.20 | 27.51 | 27.14 | 27.06 | 27.28 | 27.78 | 28.60 | 29.74 |
| Capital Expenditures | -28.35 | -27.05 | -26.11 | -25.48 | -25.13 | -25.06 | -25.26 | -25.73 | -26.48 | -27.54 |
| NWC Investment | 6.83 | 5.22 | 3.82 | 2.55 | 1.39 | 0.29 | -0.80 | -1.89 | -3.04 | -4.28 |
| (+) D&A | 31.59 | 30.15 | 29.10 | 28.39 | 28.01 | 27.93 | 28.15 | 28.67 | 29.51 | 30.69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 40.69 | 37.54 | 35.00 | 32.98 | 31.41 | 30.22 | 29.37 | 28.83 | 28.59 | 28.62 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 | 284,790,000.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 2.70 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40.44 | 35.95 | 31.50 | 27.91 | 24.98 | 22.59 | 20.62 | 19.03 | 17.74 | 16.69 | Raw: 730.52 563.24 |
Raw: 665.63 376.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 724.02 | 633.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.94 | -28.94 |
| Equity Value | 752.96 | 662.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 284.79 | 284.79 |
| Fair Value | $2.64 | $2.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.42% | 85.42% |
| Buy Price | $0.39 | $0.34 |
| Current Price | $1.14 | $1.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.19% | -70.24% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40.41 | 35.71 | 31.01 | 27.21 | 24.13 | 21.62 | 19.55 | 17.87 | 16.50 | 15.38 | Raw: 541.67 401.55 |
Raw: 493.56 256.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 560.01 | 505.41 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.94 | -28.94 |
| Equity Value | 588.95 | 534.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 284.79 | 284.79 |
| Fair Value | $2.07 | $1.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.42% | 85.42% |
| Buy Price | $0.30 | $0.27 |
| Current Price | $1.14 | $1.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.55% | -76.00% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40.48 | 36.18 | 32.01 | 28.63 | 25.87 | 23.61 | 21.77 | 20.28 | 19.08 | 18.12 | Raw: 1,115.70 895.03 |
Raw: 1,016.60 627.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,058.20 | 893.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.94 | -28.94 |
| Equity Value | 1,087.14 | 921.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 284.79 | 284.79 |
| Fair Value | $3.82 | $3.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.42% | 85.42% |
| Buy Price | $0.56 | $0.47 |
| Current Price | $1.14 | $1.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.18% | -58.60% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,331.57 | 6,585.13 | 10,011.14 | 15,219.57 | 23,137.75 | 35,175.49 | 53,476.01 | 81,297.64 | 123,593.85 | 187,895.24 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% | 52.03% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 3.52 | 5.35 | 8.13 | 12.36 | 18.79 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.85 | 1.21 | 1.73 | 2.47 | 3.53 | 5.04 | 7.21 | 10.30 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $1.37 | -11.20% | $1.71 | 25.07% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $1.96 | -6.75% | $0.35 | -82.34% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $2.33 | -1.85% | $1.42 | -39.01% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $2.93 | 6.12% | $3.13 | 6.97% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $2.14 | 8.23% | $6.88 | 221.50% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $2.19 | 4.42% | $-6.95 | -417.37% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $1.73 | 4.56% | $-2.04 | -218.06% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $2.17 | 3.46% | $2.88 | 32.89% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $1.94 | 5.18% | $5.62 | 189.65% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $2.32 | 3.53% | $5.00 | 115.55% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $1.13 | 2.22% | $2.72 | 141.14% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $0.38 | 3.43% | $3.24 | 747.76% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $0.48 | 6.91% | $3.23 | 569.50% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $0.42 | 13.06% | $10.15 | 2,327.46% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $0.65 | 12.08% | $-2.39 | -469.72% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $0.95 | 5.07% | $-0.69 | -172.09% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $1.21 | 4.95% | $-2.33 | -292.34% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $1.18 | 3.76% | $-1.85 | -257.10% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $0.93 | 5.27% | $1.72 | 85.69% |
| $1.45 - $1.78 | 55 |
| $1.78 - $2.12 | 273 |
| $2.12 - $2.45 | 277 |
| $2.45 - $2.78 | 189 |
| $2.78 - $3.11 | 90 |
| $3.11 - $3.44 | 52 |
| $3.44 - $3.77 | 26 |
| $3.77 - $4.11 | 11 |
| $4.11 - $4.44 | 8 |
| $4.44 - $4.77 | 5 |
| $4.77 - $5.10 | 5 |
| $5.10 - $5.43 | 2 |
| $5.43 - $5.77 | 3 |
| $5.77 - $6.10 | 1 |
| $6.10 - $6.43 | 0 |
| $6.43 - $6.76 | 1 |
| $6.76 - $7.09 | 0 |
| $7.09 - $7.42 | 1 |
| $7.42 - $7.76 | 0 |
| $7.76 - $8.09 | 1 |