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Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$11.15
5Y Range10,332.81 – 21,301.64
5Y Selected15,817.23
(-) Safety Margin80.50%
5Y Buy Price$3,421.27
Upside (to Buy Price)30,584.01%
10Y Range11,036.97 – 22,004.97
10Y Selected16,520.97
(-) Safety Margin80.50%
10Y Buy Price$3,573.49
Upside (to Buy Price)31,949.21%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2806
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9115
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4361
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3971
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4996
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2772
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9061
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0326
Safety Score0.2163

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.28%5.14%5.00%4.86%4.71%4.57%4.43%4.29%4.14%4.00%
Revenue177,005.80186,104.30195,405.23204,892.49214,548.34224,353.45234,286.89244,326.21254,447.50264,625.40
EBITDA1,488,019.091,564,506.661,642,696.011,722,451.711,803,624.701,886,052.411,969,559.002,053,955.722,139,041.422,224,603.08
D&A-393,991.95-414,244.04-434,946.71-456,064.12-477,556.79-499,381.68-521,492.23-543,838.47-566,367.14-589,021.82
EBIT1,094,027.131,150,262.621,207,749.301,266,387.591,326,067.911,386,670.731,448,066.761,510,117.251,572,674.291,635,581.26
Pro forma Taxes-298,591.50-313,939.78-329,629.55-345,633.63-361,922.10-378,462.36-395,219.10-412,154.46-429,228.08-446,397.20
NOPAT795,435.64836,322.85878,119.75920,753.97964,145.811,008,208.371,052,847.661,097,962.781,143,446.211,189,184.05
Capital Expenditures-3,842.87-4,040.40-4,242.33-4,448.30-4,657.93-4,870.81-5,086.46-5,304.42-5,524.16-5,745.13
NWC Investment-590.79-605.22-618.68-631.08-642.29-652.22-660.76-667.80-673.25-677.02
(+) D&A393,991.95414,244.04434,946.71456,064.12477,556.79499,381.68521,492.23543,838.47566,367.14589,021.82
Free Cash Flow1,184,993.941,245,921.271,308,205.451,371,738.711,436,402.381,502,067.031,568,592.681,635,829.041,703,615.931,771,783.73
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.002,445,215,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.12%Terminal Growth: 3.07%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.840.790.740.690.640.600.56
PV UFCF1,176,873.661,207,959.351,184,063.061,158,267.321,132,271.771,105,353.111,077,603.671,049,117.061,019,987.59990,309.77
Raw: 36,569,818.35
27,852,613.13
Raw: 45,108,397.40
24,360,507.37

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value33,712,048.3035,462,313.74
(-) Net Debt2,972.162,972.16
Equity Value33,709,076.1335,459,341.58
(/) Shares Out2,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$13,785.73$14,501.52
(-) Safety Margin80.50%80.50%
Buy Price$2,688.22$2,827.80
Current Price$11.15$11.15
Upside (to Buy Price)24,009.57%25,261.41%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.12%Terminal Growth: 2.57%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF1,175,780.601,202,918.841,168,216.391,132,091.061,096,447.131,060,480.061,024,294.85987,994.06951,677.34915,441.00
Raw: 26,553,804.93
19,493,469.75
Raw: 32,753,774.55
16,275,405.16

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value25,268,923.7726,990,746.49
(-) Net Debt2,972.162,972.16
Equity Value25,265,951.6026,987,774.32
(/) Shares Out2,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$10,332.81$11,036.97
(-) Safety Margin80.50%80.50%
Buy Price$2,014.90$2,152.21
Current Price$11.15$11.15
Upside (to Buy Price)17,970.84%19,202.33%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.12%Terminal Growth: 3.57%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.770.720.680.640.61
PV UFCF1,177,978.011,213,068.561,200,276.371,185,302.921,169,619.581,152,572.841,134,226.531,114,648.881,093,912.081,072,091.84
Raw: 58,376,738.28
46,143,827.55
Raw: 72,006,950.78
42,296,163.42

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value52,090,072.9953,809,861.03
(-) Net Debt2,972.162,972.16
Equity Value52,087,100.8253,806,888.87
(/) Shares Out2,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$21,301.64$22,004.97
(-) Safety Margin80.50%80.50%
Buy Price$4,153.82$4,290.97
Current Price$11.15$11.15
Upside (to Buy Price)37,154.00%38,384.03%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$11.15
WACC Used7.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH53.69%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue526,911.63809,824.331,244,640.281,912,920.342,940,017.534,518,590.176,944,739.9410,673,553.2416,404,464.3725,212,452.23
Constant Implied Growth53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%53.69%
Implied Free Cash Flow52.6980.98124.46191.29294.00451.86694.471,067.361,640.452,521.25
Discount Factor0.950.840.790.740.690.640.600.560.520.49
Present Value of Implied FCF50.2268.3898.11140.77201.98289.79415.79596.58855.971,228.15

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$28.502.21%$25.87-9.22%
20182018-12-31$13.628.52%$-10.91-180.10%
20172017-12-31$14.8513.02%$27.2683.60%
20162016-12-31$6.2016.10%$34.50456.39%
20152015-12-31$3.9315.79%$32.08716.24%
20142014-12-31$5.5916.30%$-24.50-538.21%
20132013-12-31$8.3515.26%$-13.76-264.80%
20122012-12-31$9.429.61%$-26.63-382.68%
20112011-12-31$10.494.82%$-22.05-310.24%
20102010-12-31$14.124.34%$-21.65-253.30%
20092009-12-31$9.4315.66%$-3.12-133.09%
20082008-12-31$9.4329.72%$3.32-64.75%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$15,909.99
Median
$14,570.83
10th Percentile
$11,093.28
90th Percentile
$21,400.23

Fair Value Distribution

$7,763.57 - $12,747.64
295
$12,747.64 - $17,731.71
466
$17,731.71 - $22,715.77
167
$22,715.77 - $27,699.84
39
$27,699.84 - $32,683.91
13
$32,683.91 - $37,667.98
11
$37,667.98 - $42,652.04
1
$42,652.04 - $47,636.11
2
$47,636.11 - $52,620.18
2
$52,620.18 - $57,604.24
1
$57,604.24 - $62,588.31
1
$62,588.31 - $67,572.38
0
$67,572.38 - $72,556.45
0
$72,556.45 - $77,540.51
0
$77,540.51 - $82,524.58
0
$82,524.58 - $87,508.65
0
$87,508.65 - $92,492.72
0
$92,492.72 - $97,476.78
1
$97,476.78 - $102,460.85
0
$102,460.85 - $107,444.92
1