Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.46 |
| 5Y Range | 6.80 – 14.61 |
| 5Y Selected | 10.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.68% |
| 10Y Range | 7.67 – 16.05 |
| 10Y Selected | 11.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.95% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0577 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7513 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3785 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1672 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2147 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2481 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1415 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0402 |
| Safety Score | 0.2001 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.53% | 6.25% | 5.97% | 5.69% | 5.41% | 5.13% | 4.84% | 4.56% | 4.28% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 25,305.48 | 26,887.26 | 28,492.27 | 30,112.93 | 31,741.06 | 33,367.91 | 34,984.26 | 36,580.49 | 38,146.62 | 39,672.49 |
| EBITDA | 5,437.49 | 5,777.38 | 6,122.25 | 6,470.49 | 6,820.33 | 7,169.90 | 7,517.22 | 7,860.20 | 8,196.73 | 8,524.59 |
| D&A | -1,506.12 | -1,600.26 | -1,695.79 | -1,792.25 | -1,889.15 | -1,985.97 | -2,082.18 | -2,177.18 | -2,270.39 | -2,361.21 |
| EBIT | 3,931.38 | 4,177.12 | 4,426.47 | 4,678.25 | 4,931.19 | 5,183.93 | 5,435.04 | 5,683.02 | 5,926.33 | 6,163.39 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -569.61 | -605.22 | -641.35 | -677.83 | -714.47 | -751.09 | -787.48 | -823.41 | -858.66 | -893.01 |
| NOPAT | 3,361.76 | 3,571.90 | 3,785.12 | 4,000.42 | 4,216.71 | 4,432.84 | 4,647.56 | 4,859.62 | 5,067.68 | 5,270.38 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,439.11 | -3,654.08 | -3,872.21 | -4,092.47 | -4,313.73 | -4,534.83 | -4,754.50 | -4,971.43 | -5,184.28 | -5,391.65 |
| NWC Investment | -145.82 | -148.66 | -150.84 | -152.31 | -153.01 | -152.89 | -151.90 | -150.01 | -147.19 | -143.40 |
| (+) D&A | 1,506.12 | 1,600.26 | 1,695.79 | 1,792.25 | 1,889.15 | 1,985.97 | 2,082.18 | 2,177.18 | 2,270.39 | 2,361.21 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,282.95 | 1,369.42 | 1,457.86 | 1,547.89 | 1,639.12 | 1,731.09 | 1,823.34 | 1,915.35 | 2,006.61 | 2,096.54 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 | 4,260,116,770.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,275.11 | 1,331.38 | 1,333.16 | 1,331.41 | 1,326.12 | 1,317.33 | 1,305.10 | 1,289.52 | 1,270.70 | 1,248.79 | Raw: 42,589.34 33,417.55 |
Raw: 54,474.68 31,468.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 40,014.74 | 44,497.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 736.35 | 736.35 |
| Equity Value | 39,278.39 | 43,761.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 |
| Fair Value | $9.22 | $10.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.60% | 83.60% |
| Buy Price | $1.51 | $1.68 |
| Current Price | $8.46 | $8.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.13% | -80.09% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,273.92 | 1,325.66 | 1,315.06 | 1,301.09 | 1,283.85 | 1,263.46 | 1,240.07 | 1,213.84 | 1,184.99 | 1,153.70 | Raw: 30,695.49 23,208.52 |
Raw: 39,261.63 20,855.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,708.11 | 33,411.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 736.35 | 736.35 |
| Equity Value | 28,971.76 | 32,674.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 |
| Fair Value | $6.80 | $7.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.60% | 83.60% |
| Buy Price | $1.12 | $1.26 |
| Current Price | $8.46 | $8.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.82% | -85.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,276.32 | 1,337.18 | 1,351.68 | 1,362.72 | 1,370.20 | 1,374.04 | 1,374.21 | 1,370.70 | 1,363.52 | 1,352.73 | Raw: 69,106.28 56,291.68 |
Raw: 88,391.66 55,574.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,989.79 | 69,107.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 736.35 | 736.35 |
| Equity Value | 62,253.43 | 68,370.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,260.12 | 4,260.12 |
| Fair Value | $14.61 | $16.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.60% | 83.60% |
| Buy Price | $2.40 | $2.63 |
| Current Price | $8.46 | $8.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.67% | -68.89% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 90,754.68 | 169,145.81 | 315,248.81 | 587,551.12 | 1,095,059.88 | 2,040,939.23 | 3,803,840.36 | 7,089,481.76 | 13,213,160.09 | 24,626,285.19 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% | 86.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.08 | 16.91 | 31.52 | 58.76 | 109.51 | 204.09 | 380.38 | 708.95 | 1,321.32 | 2,462.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 8.69 | 14.55 | 25.51 | 44.71 | 78.38 | 137.41 | 240.88 | 422.28 | 740.28 | 1,297.74 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.32 | 2.20% | $3.49 | -66.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $8.66 | 12.47% | $17.03 | 96.69% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $10.82 | 15.52% | $15.49 | 43.20% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.34 | 15.70% | $15.57 | 145.52% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.56 | 7.58% | $3.06 | -32.82% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.91 | 8.45% | $-2.63 | -167.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $6.84 | 9.72% | $-0.54 | -107.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.78 | 8.95% | $-1.21 | -125.40% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $4.46 | 5.93% | $-10.58 | -337.16% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.40 | 5.49% | $-5.21 | -181.48% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.52 | 9.88% | $-0.44 | -112.52% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.04 | 20.35% | $3.00 | 188.34% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.79 | 23.45% | $-11.14 | -393.99% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $1.70 | 24.26% | $-1.23 | -172.64% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $0.89 | 24.40% | $-6.96 | -882.39% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $0.94 | 24.29% | $-6.12 | -749.44% |
| $5.43 - $6.93 | 23 |
| $6.93 - $8.43 | 180 |
| $8.43 - $9.93 | 252 |
| $9.93 - $11.43 | 198 |
| $11.43 - $12.93 | 108 |
| $12.93 - $14.43 | 75 |
| $14.43 - $15.92 | 65 |
| $15.92 - $17.42 | 26 |
| $17.42 - $18.92 | 26 |
| $18.92 - $20.42 | 7 |
| $20.42 - $21.92 | 14 |
| $21.92 - $23.42 | 4 |
| $23.42 - $24.92 | 4 |
| $24.92 - $26.41 | 6 |
| $26.41 - $27.91 | 3 |
| $27.91 - $29.41 | 2 |
| $29.41 - $30.91 | 2 |
| $30.91 - $32.41 | 2 |
| $32.41 - $33.91 | 1 |
| $33.91 - $35.41 | 2 |