Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $7.91 |
| 5Y Range | 17.24 – 36.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 27.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.12% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.81 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 24.02% |
| 10Y Range | 19.02 – 39.46 |
| 10Y Selected | 29.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.12% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 34.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5586 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9312 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1308 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5689 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0729 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8420 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0457 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1212 |
| Safety Score | 0.3626 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.67% | 4.59% | 4.52% | 4.45% | 4.37% | 4.30% | 4.22% | 4.15% | 4.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 93,244.77 | 97,528.85 | 101,937.30 | 106,469.26 | 111,123.59 | 115,898.82 | 120,793.13 | 125,804.37 | 130,930.03 | 136,167.23 |
| EBITDA | 1,833.55 | 1,917.79 | 2,004.48 | 2,093.59 | 2,185.11 | 2,279.01 | 2,375.25 | 2,473.79 | 2,574.58 | 2,677.57 |
| D&A | -121.23 | -126.80 | -132.53 | -138.42 | -144.47 | -150.68 | -157.04 | -163.56 | -170.22 | -177.03 |
| EBIT | 1,712.32 | 1,790.99 | 1,871.95 | 1,955.17 | 2,040.64 | 2,128.33 | 2,218.21 | 2,310.23 | 2,404.36 | 2,500.54 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -327.97 | -343.04 | -358.55 | -374.49 | -390.86 | -407.65 | -424.87 | -442.50 | -460.52 | -478.94 |
| NOPAT | 1,384.35 | 1,447.95 | 1,513.40 | 1,580.68 | 1,649.78 | 1,720.68 | 1,793.34 | 1,867.74 | 1,943.84 | 2,021.59 |
| Capital Expenditures | -91.93 | -96.15 | -100.50 | -104.97 | -109.56 | -114.26 | -119.09 | -124.03 | -129.08 | -134.25 |
| NWC Investment | -277.65 | -285.98 | -294.29 | -302.53 | -310.70 | -318.77 | -326.72 | -334.53 | -342.16 | -349.61 |
| (+) D&A | 121.23 | 126.80 | 132.53 | 138.42 | 144.47 | 150.68 | 157.04 | 163.56 | 170.22 | 177.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,136.00 | 1,192.61 | 1,251.14 | 1,311.61 | 1,374.00 | 1,438.33 | 1,504.58 | 1,572.74 | 1,642.81 | 1,714.77 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 | 1,400,718,749.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,128.95 | 1,159.65 | 1,143.10 | 1,125.28 | 1,107.63 | 1,089.47 | 1,070.84 | 1,051.76 | 1,032.28 | 1,012.43 | Raw: 35,544.60 27,775.19 |
Raw: 44,360.06 25,387.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 33,439.80 | 36,309.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 745.75 | 745.75 |
| Equity Value | 32,694.05 | 35,563.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,400.72 | 1,400.72 |
| Fair Value | $23.34 | $25.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.12% | 67.12% |
| Buy Price | $7.67 | $8.35 |
| Current Price | $7.91 | $7.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -2.98% | 5.54% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,127.89 | 1,154.78 | 1,127.71 | 1,099.69 | 1,072.36 | 1,044.96 | 1,017.53 | 990.10 | 962.72 | 935.41 | Raw: 25,655.36 19,318.67 |
Raw: 32,018.18 16,851.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,901.10 | 27,384.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 745.75 | 745.75 |
| Equity Value | 24,155.36 | 26,638.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,400.72 | 1,400.72 |
| Fair Value | $17.24 | $19.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.12% | 67.12% |
| Buy Price | $5.67 | $6.25 |
| Current Price | $7.91 | $7.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.32% | -20.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,130.01 | 1,164.59 | 1,158.86 | 1,151.72 | 1,144.41 | 1,136.32 | 1,127.48 | 1,117.90 | 1,107.60 | 1,096.61 | Raw: 57,489.61 46,634.64 |
Raw: 71,747.67 44,686.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 52,384.22 | 56,022.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 745.75 | 745.75 |
| Equity Value | 51,638.48 | 55,276.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,400.72 | 1,400.72 |
| Fair Value | $36.87 | $39.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.12% | 67.12% |
| Buy Price | $12.12 | $12.98 |
| Current Price | $7.91 | $7.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 53.24% | 64.04% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 255,385.69 | 373,850.73 | 547,267.81 | 801,127.39 | 1,172,744.10 | 1,716,741.60 | 2,513,081.70 | 3,678,817.85 | 5,385,300.73 | 7,883,365.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 25.54 | 37.39 | 54.73 | 80.11 | 117.27 | 171.67 | 251.31 | 367.88 | 538.53 | 788.34 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 24.45 | 32.07 | 44.12 | 60.68 | 83.47 | 114.81 | 157.91 | 217.20 | 298.76 | 410.93 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $4.00 | 4.66% | $7.02 | 75.45% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.79 | 3.40% | $-15.23 | -501.85% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $4.63 | 6.25% | $-33.05 | -813.75% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.72 | 8.61% | $13.02 | 378.79% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.10 | 9.83% | $5.20 | 147.74% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.53 | 11.27% | $-4.30 | -269.98% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.97 | 11.18% | $-1.05 | -153.13% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $1.39 | 8.75% | $-14.41 | -1,136.87% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $0.81 | 6.99% | $7.07 | 774.71% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.90 | 7.91% | $1.64 | -13.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $0.53 | 11.80% | $12.45 | 2,271.04% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $1.37 | 13.41% | $-2.41 | -275.89% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $1.92 | 20.76% | $-0.96 | -149.90% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $0.83 | 39.40% | $14.40 | 1,628.53% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $0.13 | 45.36% | $2.09 | 1,530.26% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $0.15 | 43.24% | $-1.72 | -1,247.90% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $0.09 | 26.71% | $0.00 | -95.45% |
| $15.01 - $19.45 | 122 |
| $19.45 - $23.89 | 301 |
| $23.89 - $28.33 | 240 |
| $28.33 - $32.77 | 142 |
| $32.77 - $37.21 | 79 |
| $37.21 - $41.65 | 38 |
| $41.65 - $46.09 | 35 |
| $46.09 - $50.53 | 15 |
| $50.53 - $54.97 | 4 |
| $54.97 - $59.41 | 8 |
| $59.41 - $63.85 | 5 |
| $63.85 - $68.29 | 4 |
| $68.29 - $72.73 | 1 |
| $72.73 - $77.17 | 2 |
| $77.17 - $81.61 | 0 |
| $81.61 - $86.05 | 0 |
| $86.05 - $90.49 | 2 |
| $90.49 - $94.93 | 0 |
| $94.93 - $99.37 | 0 |
| $99.37 - $103.81 | 2 |