Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.39 |
| 5Y Range | 5.20 – 13.05 |
| 5Y Selected | 9.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.28% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.04% |
| 10Y Range | 5.71 – 13.63 |
| 10Y Selected | 9.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.28% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -25.84% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0751 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8444 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5779 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3646 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0759 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8707 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0005 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5802 |
| Safety Score | 0.4133 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.64% | 5.46% | 5.27% | 5.09% | 4.91% | 4.73% | 4.55% | 4.36% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12,312.76 | 12,984.60 | 13,669.46 | 14,365.55 | 15,070.94 | 15,783.53 | 16,501.08 | 17,221.20 | 17,941.40 | 18,659.06 |
| EBITDA | 4,442.64 | 4,685.05 | 4,932.16 | 5,183.32 | 5,437.84 | 5,694.95 | 5,953.85 | 6,213.68 | 6,473.54 | 6,732.48 |
| D&A | -871.54 | -919.09 | -967.57 | -1,016.84 | -1,066.77 | -1,117.21 | -1,168.00 | -1,218.97 | -1,269.95 | -1,320.75 |
| EBIT | 3,571.10 | 3,765.96 | 3,964.59 | 4,166.48 | 4,371.06 | 4,577.74 | 4,785.85 | 4,994.71 | 5,203.59 | 5,411.74 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -888.65 | -937.14 | -986.57 | -1,036.81 | -1,087.72 | -1,139.15 | -1,190.94 | -1,242.91 | -1,294.89 | -1,346.69 |
| NOPAT | 2,682.45 | 2,828.82 | 2,978.02 | 3,129.67 | 3,283.34 | 3,438.59 | 3,594.91 | 3,751.80 | 3,908.70 | 4,065.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,123.23 | -3,293.65 | -3,467.37 | -3,643.94 | -3,822.87 | -4,003.62 | -4,185.63 | -4,368.30 | -4,550.99 | -4,733.02 |
| NWC Investment | 87.36 | 89.31 | 91.04 | 92.53 | 93.77 | 94.72 | 95.38 | 95.73 | 95.74 | 95.40 |
| (+) D&A | 871.54 | 919.09 | 967.57 | 1,016.84 | 1,066.77 | 1,117.21 | 1,168.00 | 1,218.97 | 1,269.95 | 1,320.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 518.11 | 543.56 | 569.25 | 595.10 | 621.01 | 646.90 | 672.66 | 698.20 | 723.40 | 748.17 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 | 1,632,060,500.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 3/31/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 9/29/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 514.95 | 520.74 | 512.61 | 504.03 | 494.71 | 484.69 | 474.04 | 462.78 | 450.98 | 438.70 | Raw: 16,315.90 12,605.27 |
Raw: 19,656.74 11,178.06 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,152.31 | 16,036.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,724.22 | 2,724.22 |
| Equity Value | 12,428.09 | 13,312.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,632.06 | 1,632.06 |
| Fair Value | $7.61 | $8.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.28% | 62.28% |
| Buy Price | $2.87 | $3.08 |
| Current Price | $5.39 | $5.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.71% | -42.92% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 514.47 | 517.33 | 504.47 | 491.40 | 477.82 | 463.79 | 449.36 | 434.60 | 419.58 | 404.34 | Raw: 11,724.81 8,708.25 |
Raw: 14,125.58 7,369.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,213.74 | 12,046.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,724.22 | 2,724.22 |
| Equity Value | 8,489.53 | 9,322.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,632.06 | 1,632.06 |
| Fair Value | $5.20 | $5.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.28% | 62.28% |
| Buy Price | $1.96 | $2.15 |
| Current Price | $5.39 | $5.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.60% | -60.03% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 515.43 | 524.19 | 520.96 | 517.10 | 512.36 | 506.76 | 500.32 | 493.08 | 485.07 | 476.33 | Raw: 26,649.76 21,424.60 |
Raw: 32,106.55 19,918.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,014.66 | 24,969.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,724.22 | 2,724.22 |
| Equity Value | 21,290.44 | 22,245.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,632.06 | 1,632.06 |
| Fair Value | $13.05 | $13.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 62.28% | 62.28% |
| Buy Price | $4.92 | $5.14 |
| Current Price | $5.39 | $5.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -8.71% | -4.61% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 32,295.22 | 59,031.82 | 107,903.14 | 197,234.08 | 360,520.40 | 658,988.33 | 1,204,552.16 | 2,201,777.83 | 4,024,587.56 | 7,356,466.57 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.23 | 5.90 | 10.79 | 19.72 | 36.05 | 65.90 | 120.46 | 220.18 | 402.46 | 735.65 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.19 | 5.32 | 9.14 | 15.71 | 27.01 | 46.44 | 79.84 | 137.26 | 235.99 | 405.71 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $5.82 | 1.72% | $-2.50 | -143.01% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $8.17 | 10.41% | $4.72 | -42.23% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $7.99 | 14.35% | $14.31 | 79.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $5.12 | 12.42% | $18.38 | 258.98% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $3.19 | 11.92% | $15.01 | 370.48% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $3.72 | 13.97% | $-12.90 | -446.73% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $2.46 | 23.07% | $-14.23 | -678.34% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $2.30 | 24.65% | $-0.36 | -115.54% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $2.68 | 24.97% | $7.30 | 172.48% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $2.95 | 21.93% | $-4.90 | -266.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $3.41 | 16.45% | $-4.66 | -236.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $1.21 | 13.98% | $-3.87 | -419.44% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $2.60 | 12.69% | $2.74 | 5.30% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $3.56 | 17.44% | $-7.43 | -308.74% |
| 2006 | 2006-03-31 | $1.43 | 47.29% | $-0.72 | -150.44% |
| 2005 | 2005-03-31 | $0.50 | 77.37% | $-8.10 | -1,720.81% |
| 2004 | 2004-03-31 | $0.30 | 62.84% | $-19.73 | -6,588.77% |
| 2003 | 2003-03-31 | $0.20 | 28.71% | $-15.54 | -7,893.52% |
| 2002 | 2002-03-31 | $0.52 | -47.38% | $-0.06 | -112.53% |
| 2001 | 2001-03-31 | $0.52 | -31.52% | $0.01 | -97.99% |
| 2000 | 2000-03-31 | $0.52 | -26.50% | $-0.32 | -160.99% |
| $1.60 - $3.49 | 1 |
| $3.49 - $5.39 | 79 |
| $5.39 - $7.29 | 295 |
| $7.29 - $9.19 | 281 |
| $9.19 - $11.09 | 157 |
| $11.09 - $12.99 | 84 |
| $12.99 - $14.89 | 42 |
| $14.89 - $16.79 | 24 |
| $16.79 - $18.69 | 13 |
| $18.69 - $20.59 | 8 |
| $20.59 - $22.49 | 3 |
| $22.49 - $24.39 | 3 |
| $24.39 - $26.28 | 4 |
| $26.28 - $28.18 | 1 |
| $28.18 - $30.08 | 2 |
| $30.08 - $31.98 | 1 |
| $31.98 - $33.88 | 0 |
| $33.88 - $35.78 | 0 |
| $35.78 - $37.68 | 1 |
| $37.68 - $39.58 | 0 |