Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $17.94 |
| 5Y Range | 49.37 – 109.82 |
| 5Y Selected | 79.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.73% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $21.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 19.08% |
| 10Y Range | 56.84 – 122.57 |
| 10Y Selected | 89.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.73% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $24.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 34.21% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7817 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7427 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5989 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1271 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7740 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2839 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0226 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7820 |
| Safety Score | 0.2684 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.42% | 8.81% | 8.21% | 7.61% | 7.01% | 6.41% | 5.81% | 5.20% | 4.60% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 115,197.82 | 125,351.58 | 135,645.97 | 145,969.51 | 156,200.32 | 166,208.22 | 175,857.15 | 185,007.96 | 193,521.61 | 201,262.47 |
| EBITDA | 59,816.30 | 65,088.62 | 70,433.97 | 75,794.45 | 81,106.79 | 86,303.38 | 91,313.57 | 96,065.11 | 100,485.81 | 104,505.24 |
| D&A | -17,189.07 | -18,704.15 | -20,240.21 | -21,780.62 | -23,307.20 | -24,800.51 | -26,240.26 | -27,605.68 | -28,876.04 | -30,031.08 |
| EBIT | 42,627.23 | 46,384.48 | 50,193.76 | 54,013.83 | 57,799.59 | 61,502.87 | 65,073.31 | 68,459.43 | 71,609.78 | 74,474.17 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -11,762.85 | -12,799.65 | -13,850.82 | -14,904.95 | -15,949.62 | -16,971.53 | -17,956.78 | -18,891.17 | -19,760.50 | -20,550.92 |
| NOPAT | 30,864.38 | 33,584.82 | 36,342.95 | 39,108.88 | 41,849.97 | 44,531.34 | 47,116.53 | 49,568.26 | 51,849.28 | 53,923.25 |
| Capital Expenditures | -36,938.89 | -40,194.75 | -43,495.71 | -46,806.02 | -50,086.59 | -53,295.69 | -56,389.68 | -59,323.94 | -62,053.89 | -64,536.05 |
| NWC Investment | -220.03 | -225.36 | -228.48 | -229.13 | -227.07 | -222.13 | -214.16 | -203.10 | -188.96 | -171.81 |
| (+) D&A | 17,189.07 | 18,704.15 | 20,240.21 | 21,780.62 | 23,307.20 | 24,800.51 | 26,240.26 | 27,605.68 | 28,876.04 | 30,031.08 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10,894.52 | 11,868.85 | 12,858.96 | 13,854.35 | 14,843.50 | 15,814.03 | 16,752.95 | 17,646.90 | 18,482.46 | 19,246.47 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 | 4,922,410,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,827.84 | 11,545.40 | 11,763.58 | 11,912.06 | 12,002.47 | 12,025.71 | 11,981.00 | 11,868.72 | 11,690.39 | 11,448.64 | Raw: 383,605.81 300,806.00 |
Raw: 497,393.25 286,925.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 358,857.35 | 403,991.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 23,396.75 | 23,396.75 |
| Equity Value | 335,460.61 | 380,594.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,922.41 | 4,922.41 |
| Fair Value | $68.15 | $77.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.73% | 76.73% |
| Buy Price | $15.86 | $17.99 |
| Current Price | $17.94 | $17.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -11.60% | 0.29% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,817.70 | 11,496.87 | 11,605.00 | 11,640.90 | 11,619.97 | 11,534.00 | 11,384.06 | 11,172.30 | 10,901.90 | 10,576.99 | Raw: 276,884.26 209,219.10 |
Raw: 359,015.31 190,440.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 266,399.54 | 303,189.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 23,396.75 | 23,396.75 |
| Equity Value | 243,002.79 | 279,792.99 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,922.41 | 4,922.41 |
| Fair Value | $49.37 | $56.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.73% | 76.73% |
| Buy Price | $11.49 | $13.23 |
| Current Price | $17.94 | $17.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.97% | -26.27% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,838.07 | 11,594.59 | 11,925.86 | 12,192.19 | 12,401.36 | 12,543.33 | 12,615.34 | 12,615.76 | 12,544.17 | 12,401.40 | Raw: 620,410.80 505,046.13 |
Raw: 804,440.73 505,047.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 563,998.21 | 626,719.59 |
| (-) Net Debt | 23,396.75 | 23,396.75 |
| Equity Value | 540,601.46 | 603,322.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,922.41 | 4,922.41 |
| Fair Value | $109.82 | $122.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.73% | 76.73% |
| Buy Price | $25.56 | $28.52 |
| Current Price | $17.94 | $17.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 42.45% | 58.98% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 373,789.11 | 673,659.97 | 1,214,101.05 | 2,188,108.88 | 3,943,510.68 | 7,107,176.72 | 12,808,881.48 | 23,084,756.61 | 41,604,412.42 | 74,981,389.77 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% | 80.22% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 37.38 | 67.37 | 121.41 | 218.81 | 394.35 | 710.72 | 1,280.89 | 2,308.48 | 4,160.44 | 7,498.14 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 35.81 | 57.92 | 98.17 | 166.39 | 282.02 | 478.01 | 810.18 | 1,373.18 | 2,327.43 | 3,944.79 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.94 | 9.46% | $-39.21 | -458.44% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $15.06 | 12.40% | $-12.46 | -182.71% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $14.58 | 8.65% | $-6.40 | -143.88% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $12.32 | 2.98% | $3.06 | -75.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $15.08 | -0.03% | $30.81 | 104.30% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $20.15 | 0.24% | $-12.93 | -164.15% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $18.38 | 1.83% | $-17.47 | -195.07% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $19.78 | 0.21% | $10.63 | -46.27% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $14.98 | 1.15% | $-16.04 | -207.05% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $14.10 | 4.11% | $-37.62 | -366.77% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $15.44 | 8.35% | $-56.42 | -465.42% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $14.63 | 15.93% | $-60.62 | -514.32% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $26.47 | 20.29% | $-15.58 | -158.86% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $11.29 | 28.48% | $-31.89 | -382.49% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $4.30 | 34.73% | $-39.64 | -1,021.92% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.15 | 40.94% | $-104.94 | -2,628.62% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $3.56 | 60.78% | $-174.20 | -4,993.24% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $2.73 | 79.84% | $-124.67 | -4,666.69% |
| $42.00 - $75.58 | 448 |
| $75.58 - $109.17 | 401 |
| $109.17 - $142.75 | 102 |
| $142.75 - $176.33 | 28 |
| $176.33 - $209.92 | 8 |
| $209.92 - $243.50 | 7 |
| $243.50 - $277.09 | 0 |
| $277.09 - $310.67 | 1 |
| $310.67 - $344.25 | 2 |
| $344.25 - $377.84 | 1 |
| $377.84 - $411.42 | 0 |
| $411.42 - $445.01 | 1 |
| $445.01 - $478.59 | 0 |
| $478.59 - $512.17 | 0 |
| $512.17 - $545.76 | 0 |
| $545.76 - $579.34 | 0 |
| $579.34 - $612.93 | 0 |
| $612.93 - $646.51 | 0 |
| $646.51 - $680.09 | 0 |
| $680.09 - $713.68 | 1 |