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China State Construction Development Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.20
5Y Range6.54 – 14.03
5Y Selected10.29
(-) Safety Margin54.81%
5Y Buy Price$5.00
Upside (to Buy Price)316.44%
10Y Range8.02 – 16.96
10Y Selected12.49
(-) Safety Margin54.81%
10Y Buy Price$6.07
Upside (to Buy Price)405.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8216
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9469
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9883
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8778
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9391
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9562
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2832
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1350
Safety Score0.4858

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth12.53%11.58%10.63%9.69%8.74%7.79%6.84%5.90%4.95%4.00%
Revenue9,116.8010,172.6911,254.4612,344.6113,423.3614,469.1615,459.3116,370.7117,180.6917,867.91
EBITDA1,101.241,228.781,359.451,491.131,621.441,747.761,867.371,977.462,075.302,158.31
D&A-128.20-143.05-158.26-173.59-188.76-203.46-217.39-230.20-241.59-251.26
EBIT973.041,085.741,201.191,317.551,432.681,544.301,649.981,747.251,833.701,907.05
Pro forma Taxes-238.94-266.61-294.96-323.53-351.80-379.21-405.16-429.05-450.28-468.29
NOPAT734.11819.13906.23994.021,080.881,165.091,244.821,318.211,383.431,438.76
Capital Expenditures-211.11-235.56-260.60-285.85-310.83-335.04-357.97-379.07-397.83-413.74
NWC Investment-113.60-118.17-121.07-122.00-120.73-117.04-110.81-102.00-90.65-76.91
(+) D&A128.20143.05158.26173.59188.76203.46217.39230.20241.59251.26
Free Cash Flow537.59608.45682.82759.75838.08916.47993.421,067.341,136.541,199.37
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.002,255,538,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.42%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF534.26591.28623.53651.93675.77694.40707.30714.08714.52708.53
Raw: 21,764.92
17,012.03
Raw: 31,147.44
17,836.90

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value20,088.8124,452.50
(-) Net Debt100.66100.66
Equity Value19,988.1524,351.84
(/) Shares Out2,255.542,255.54
Fair Value$8.86$10.80
(-) Safety Margin54.81%54.81%
Buy Price$4.00$4.88
Current Price$1.20$1.20
Upside (to Buy Price)233.72%306.58%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.42%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF533.76588.75615.08637.10654.25666.03672.09672.22666.36654.63
Raw: 15,693.07
11,820.12
Raw: 22,458.11
11,827.02

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,849.0518,187.28
(-) Net Debt100.66100.66
Equity Value14,748.3918,086.61
(/) Shares Out2,255.542,255.54
Fair Value$6.54$8.02
(-) Safety Margin54.81%54.81%
Buy Price$2.95$3.62
Current Price$1.20$1.20
Upside (to Buy Price)146.24%201.97%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.42%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF534.77593.86632.19667.25698.21724.26744.72758.99766.66767.45
Raw: 35,284.28
28,629.74
Raw: 50,494.78
31,468.92

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value31,756.0138,357.26
(-) Net Debt100.66100.66
Equity Value31,655.3438,256.59
(/) Shares Out2,255.542,255.54
Fair Value$14.03$16.96
(-) Safety Margin54.81%54.81%
Buy Price$6.34$7.66
Current Price$1.20$1.20
Upside (to Buy Price)428.52%538.73%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.20
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH61.90%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue24,914.6040,335.6765,301.74105,720.75171,157.40277,096.56448,607.56726,276.581,175,810.931,903,587.95
Constant Implied Growth61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%61.90%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.494.036.5310.5717.1227.7144.8672.63117.58190.36
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF2.393.465.278.0112.1918.5428.2042.9165.2799.30

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$0.7313.44%$0.8414.87%
20182018-12-31$0.5416.69%$0.9677.83%
20172017-12-31$0.8714.45%$1.2239.92%
20162016-12-31$1.1814.62%$1.5732.89%
20152015-12-31$1.3314.65%$-0.41-131.03%
20142014-12-31$1.2219.60%$-0.29-124.07%
20132013-12-31$1.7222.06%$-6.38-470.85%
20122012-12-31$1.5320.38%$-7.21-571.25%
20112011-12-31$0.5917.06%$-3.37-670.90%
20102010-12-31$1.047.64%$0.80-22.62%
20092009-12-31$1.29-2.49%$2.0458.38%
20082008-12-31$1.29-10.94%$2.91125.96%
20072007-12-31$1.29-19.70%$0.33-74.81%
20062006-12-31$1.29-0.91%$0.02-98.21%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$11.97
Median
$10.71
10th Percentile
$8.06
90th Percentile
$16.90

Fair Value Distribution

$6.35 - $8.43
151
$8.43 - $10.50
317
$10.50 - $12.58
225
$12.58 - $14.66
127
$14.66 - $16.74
73
$16.74 - $18.81
41
$18.81 - $20.89
23
$20.89 - $22.97
11
$22.97 - $25.05
9
$25.05 - $27.13
6
$27.13 - $29.20
8
$29.20 - $31.28
2
$31.28 - $33.36
1
$33.36 - $35.44
1
$35.44 - $37.51
1
$37.51 - $39.59
0
$39.59 - $41.67
0
$41.67 - $43.75
0
$43.75 - $45.83
0
$45.83 - $47.90
4