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Skyworth Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.87
5Y Range-82.70 – -39.07
5Y Selected-60.89
(-) Safety Margin84.09%
5Y Buy Price$-11.79
Upside (to Buy Price)-404.59%
10Y Range-87.74 – -42.80
10Y Selected-65.27
(-) Safety Margin84.09%
10Y Buy Price$-12.64
Upside (to Buy Price)-426.51%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6747
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8768
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7025
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0605
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4682
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0410
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1550
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1310
Safety Score0.1936

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth15.10%13.86%12.63%11.40%10.17%8.93%7.70%6.47%5.23%4.00%
Revenue74,828.4285,203.0595,965.46106,904.01117,771.17128,290.82138,168.20147,102.35154,800.32160,992.33
EBITDA-58.01-66.05-74.39-82.87-91.29-99.45-107.11-114.03-120.00-124.80
D&A-879.06-1,000.94-1,127.37-1,255.88-1,383.54-1,507.12-1,623.16-1,728.12-1,818.55-1,891.29
EBIT-937.07-1,066.99-1,201.77-1,338.75-1,474.84-1,606.57-1,730.27-1,842.15-1,938.55-2,016.09
Pro forma Taxes220.85251.47283.24315.52347.59378.64407.79434.16456.88475.16
NOPAT-716.22-815.52-918.53-1,023.23-1,127.24-1,227.93-1,322.47-1,407.98-1,481.67-1,540.93
Capital Expenditures-2,802.04-3,190.54-3,593.55-4,003.16-4,410.09-4,804.01-5,173.88-5,508.43-5,796.69-6,028.56
NWC Investment-771.53-815.48-845.96-859.81-854.20-826.88-776.40-702.25-605.09-486.71
(+) D&A879.061,000.941,127.371,255.881,383.541,507.121,623.161,728.121,818.551,891.29
Free Cash Flow-3,410.72-3,820.59-4,230.67-4,630.31-5,007.99-5,351.70-5,649.59-5,890.56-6,064.90-6,164.91
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.252,313,676,380.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.39%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-3,389.67-3,715.61-3,867.39-3,976.14-4,042.26-4,060.35-4,029.01-3,948.65-3,821.43-3,651.24
Raw: -129,912.46
-101,664.04
Raw: -159,924.39
-91,829.57

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-120,655.13-130,331.33
(-) Net Debt1,041.341,041.34
Equity Value-121,696.47-131,372.67
(/) Shares Out2,313.682,313.68
Fair Value$-52.60$-56.78
(-) Safety Margin84.09%84.09%
Buy Price$-8.37$-9.03
Current Price$3.87$3.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-316.24%-333.43%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.39%Terminal Growth: 1.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-3,386.50-3,700.00-3,815.28-3,885.67-3,913.51-3,894.41-3,828.37-3,717.07-3,563.81-3,373.38
Raw: -93,689.92
-70,651.18
Raw: -115,333.84
-60,900.23

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-89,352.15-97,978.24
(-) Net Debt1,041.341,041.34
Equity Value-90,393.49-99,019.59
(/) Shares Out2,313.682,313.68
Fair Value$-39.07$-42.80
(-) Safety Margin84.09%84.09%
Buy Price$-6.22$-6.81
Current Price$3.87$3.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-260.62%-275.95%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.39%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF-3,392.87-3,731.44-3,920.72-4,069.60-4,176.53-4,235.03-4,242.22-4,197.05-4,100.37-3,954.93
Raw: -210,509.21
-171,013.21
Raw: -259,140.34
-161,939.34

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-190,304.37-201,960.10
(-) Net Debt1,041.341,041.34
Equity Value-191,345.72-203,001.44
(/) Shares Out2,313.682,313.68
Fair Value$-82.70$-87.74
(-) Safety Margin84.09%84.09%
Buy Price$-13.16$-13.96
Current Price$3.87$3.87
Upside (to Buy Price)-440.00%-460.71%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.87
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH46.51%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue210,465.47308,363.26451,798.10661,951.51969,857.541,420,985.732,081,955.723,050,375.194,469,253.936,548,122.60
Constant Implied Growth46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%46.51%
Implied Free Cash Flow21.0530.8445.1866.2096.99142.10208.20305.04446.93654.81
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.560.52
Present Value of Implied FCF20.1526.4836.4750.2269.1795.25131.18180.66248.80342.65

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$2.2513.83%$-3.03-234.53%
20182018-03-31$2.8218.70%$-21.84-874.52%
20172017-03-31$5.1218.80%$-22.41-537.76%
20162016-03-31$4.8014.05%$-4.68-197.43%
20152015-03-31$6.104.80%$14.07130.73%
20142014-03-31$4.263.53%$11.90179.26%
20132013-03-31$5.123.05%$-9.26-280.94%
20122012-03-31$3.634.14%$2.21-39.25%
20112011-03-31$3.717.49%$8.99142.37%
20102010-03-31$7.959.55%$-20.02-351.87%
20092009-03-31$0.6310.20%$4.45611.56%
20082008-03-31$0.6613.43%$3.01357.24%
20072007-03-31$0.9212.23%$-5.48-697.10%
20062006-03-31$1.3111.53%$-6.32-582.58%
20052005-03-31$2.8910.57%$8.13181.15%
20042004-03-31$2.844.70%$-1.39-149.09%
20032003-03-31$0.834.75%$-4.42-632.94%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-62.17
Median
$-56.31
10th Percentile
$-86.48
90th Percentile
$-42.09

Fair Value Distribution

$-480.19 - $-457.74
1
$-457.74 - $-435.29
0
$-435.29 - $-412.84
0
$-412.84 - $-390.39
0
$-390.39 - $-367.94
0
$-367.94 - $-345.49
0
$-345.49 - $-323.04
0
$-323.04 - $-300.59
0
$-300.59 - $-278.14
1
$-278.14 - $-255.68
0
$-255.68 - $-233.23
0
$-233.23 - $-210.78
0
$-210.78 - $-188.33
0
$-188.33 - $-165.88
2
$-165.88 - $-143.43
4
$-143.43 - $-120.98
16
$-120.98 - $-98.53
30
$-98.53 - $-76.08
128
$-76.08 - $-53.63
397
$-53.63 - $-31.18
421