Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.19 |
| 5Y Range | 7.36 – 14.39 |
| 5Y Selected | 10.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.59% |
| 10Y Range | 6.27 – 11.15 |
| 10Y Selected | 8.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9365 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8771 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4210 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4195 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5684 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5935 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2643 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2485 |
| Safety Score | 0.2931 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 26.25% | 23.77% | 21.30% | 18.83% | 16.36% | 13.89% | 11.42% | 8.94% | 6.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 16,978.26 | 21,014.77 | 25,491.50 | 30,291.79 | 35,247.26 | 40,142.15 | 44,724.56 | 48,724.57 | 51,877.94 | 53,953.06 |
| EBITDA | 983.62 | 1,217.47 | 1,476.82 | 1,754.92 | 2,042.01 | 2,325.59 | 2,591.07 | 2,822.80 | 3,005.49 | 3,125.71 |
| D&A | -406.05 | -502.59 | -609.66 | -724.46 | -842.98 | -960.05 | -1,069.64 | -1,165.30 | -1,240.72 | -1,290.35 |
| EBIT | 577.56 | 714.87 | 867.16 | 1,030.46 | 1,199.03 | 1,365.54 | 1,521.43 | 1,657.50 | 1,764.77 | 1,835.36 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -60.18 | -74.48 | -90.35 | -107.36 | -124.93 | -142.28 | -158.52 | -172.70 | -183.87 | -191.23 |
| NOPAT | 517.38 | 640.39 | 776.81 | 923.09 | 1,074.10 | 1,223.27 | 1,362.91 | 1,484.80 | 1,580.89 | 1,644.13 |
| Capital Expenditures | -866.32 | -1,072.28 | -1,300.71 | -1,545.64 | -1,798.50 | -2,048.26 | -2,282.08 | -2,486.18 | -2,647.08 | -2,752.97 |
| NWC Investment | 146.95 | 168.05 | 186.37 | 199.84 | 206.30 | 203.78 | 190.77 | 166.53 | 131.28 | 86.39 |
| (+) D&A | 406.05 | 502.59 | 609.66 | 724.46 | 842.98 | 960.05 | 1,069.64 | 1,165.30 | 1,240.72 | 1,290.35 |
| Free Cash Flow | 204.07 | 238.75 | 272.13 | 301.75 | 324.89 | 338.83 | 341.24 | 330.45 | 305.81 | 267.90 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 | 790,627,416.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 202.75 | 231.76 | 247.65 | 257.43 | 259.82 | 254.03 | 239.83 | 217.73 | 188.89 | 155.13 | Raw: 7,862.05 6,087.83 |
Raw: 6,483.14 3,634.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,287.23 | 5,889.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | -324.46 | -324.46 |
| Equity Value | 7,611.69 | 6,214.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 790.63 | 790.63 |
| Fair Value | $9.63 | $7.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.57% | 73.57% |
| Buy Price | $2.54 | $2.08 |
| Current Price | $5.19 | $5.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.97% | -59.97% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 202.57 | 230.76 | 244.29 | 251.58 | 251.57 | 243.68 | 227.92 | 204.99 | 176.19 | 143.35 | Raw: 5,776.70 4,310.81 |
Raw: 4,763.53 2,456.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,491.58 | 4,633.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | -324.46 | -324.46 |
| Equity Value | 5,816.04 | 4,957.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 790.63 | 790.63 |
| Fair Value | $7.36 | $6.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.57% | 73.57% |
| Buy Price | $1.94 | $1.66 |
| Current Price | $5.19 | $5.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.54% | -68.07% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 202.95 | 232.76 | 251.07 | 263.46 | 268.43 | 264.93 | 252.49 | 231.38 | 202.64 | 167.99 | Raw: 12,236.42 9,835.11 |
Raw: 10,090.30 6,155.12 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,053.78 | 8,493.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -324.46 | -324.46 |
| Equity Value | 11,378.24 | 8,817.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 790.63 | 790.63 |
| Fair Value | $14.39 | $11.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 73.57% | 73.57% |
| Buy Price | $3.80 | $2.95 |
| Current Price | $5.19 | $5.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -26.71% | -43.20% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 40,998.19 | 65,480.99 | 104,584.14 | 167,038.43 | 266,788.44 | 426,105.95 | 680,562.77 | 1,086,973.05 | 1,736,078.54 | 2,772,809.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% | 59.72% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.10 | 6.55 | 10.46 | 16.70 | 26.68 | 42.61 | 68.06 | 108.70 | 173.61 | 277.28 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.92 | 5.59 | 8.36 | 12.52 | 18.75 | 28.08 | 42.04 | 62.94 | 94.24 | 141.10 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.52 | 22.89% | $13.96 | 453.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.28 | 29.22% | $7.01 | 207.32% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5.10 | 31.96% | $-41.27 | -909.21% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.24 | 23.53% | $10.71 | 230.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5.45 | 12.25% | $19.59 | 259.40% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $5.26 | -7.29% | $7.44 | 41.48% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $8.29 | -18.84% | $5.39 | -35.01% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.09 | -21.82% | $-2.16 | -169.81% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.29 | -12.76% | $2.42 | -26.51% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.71 | 4.25% | $4.32 | 16.37% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.43 | 4.60% | $-6.45 | -365.41% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.07 | 6.79% | $11.56 | 458.57% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $5.70 | -0.10% | $4.52 | -20.72% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.88 | -4.80% | $7.29 | 87.92% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $5.60 | 0.10% | $6.96 | 24.32% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $7.35 | 0.59% | $4.19 | -43.06% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $7.70 | 5.56% | $7.52 | -2.33% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $4.35 | 12.36% | $8.65 | 98.87% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $5.15 | 13.63% | $16.67 | 223.59% |
| $4.88 - $8.17 | 559 |
| $8.17 - $11.45 | 354 |
| $11.45 - $14.73 | 67 |
| $14.73 - $18.01 | 10 |
| $18.01 - $21.30 | 2 |
| $21.30 - $24.58 | 1 |
| $24.58 - $27.86 | 3 |
| $27.86 - $31.14 | 1 |
| $31.14 - $34.42 | 1 |
| $34.42 - $37.71 | 0 |
| $37.71 - $40.99 | 0 |
| $40.99 - $44.27 | 0 |
| $44.27 - $47.55 | 0 |
| $47.55 - $50.84 | 1 |
| $50.84 - $54.12 | 0 |
| $54.12 - $57.40 | 0 |
| $57.40 - $60.68 | 0 |
| $60.68 - $63.97 | 0 |
| $63.97 - $67.25 | 0 |
| $67.25 - $70.53 | 1 |