Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $7.35 |
| 5Y Range | 12.85 – 25.79 |
| 5Y Selected | 19.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.98% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.98% |
| 10Y Range | 13.54 – 26.25 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.98% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.46% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6206 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2664 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7067 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4742 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6401 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3807 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0791 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0117 |
| Safety Score | 0.1941 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.41% | -0.81% | -0.21% | 0.39% | 0.99% | 1.59% | 2.20% | 2.80% | 3.40% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 23,942.21 | 23,747.97 | 23,698.12 | 23,790.90 | 24,027.13 | 24,410.20 | 24,946.19 | 25,643.98 | 26,515.51 | 27,576.13 |
| EBITDA | 4,594.06 | 4,556.79 | 4,547.22 | 4,565.03 | 4,610.35 | 4,683.86 | 4,786.70 | 4,920.60 | 5,087.83 | 5,291.34 |
| D&A | -1,314.00 | -1,303.34 | -1,300.60 | -1,305.70 | -1,318.66 | -1,339.68 | -1,369.10 | -1,407.40 | -1,455.23 | -1,513.44 |
| EBIT | 3,280.06 | 3,253.45 | 3,246.62 | 3,259.33 | 3,291.69 | 3,344.17 | 3,417.60 | 3,513.20 | 3,632.60 | 3,777.90 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -577.03 | -572.35 | -571.15 | -573.39 | -579.08 | -588.31 | -601.23 | -618.05 | -639.05 | -664.61 |
| NOPAT | 2,703.03 | 2,681.10 | 2,675.47 | 2,685.95 | 2,712.62 | 2,755.86 | 2,816.38 | 2,895.15 | 2,993.55 | 3,113.29 |
| Capital Expenditures | -894.79 | -887.53 | -885.67 | -889.14 | -897.97 | -912.28 | -932.31 | -958.39 | -990.97 | -1,030.60 |
| NWC Investment | -18.61 | -10.54 | -2.70 | 5.03 | 12.82 | 20.78 | 29.08 | 37.86 | 47.28 | 57.54 |
| (+) D&A | 1,314.00 | 1,303.34 | 1,300.60 | 1,305.70 | 1,318.66 | 1,339.68 | 1,369.10 | 1,407.40 | 1,455.23 | 1,513.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,103.62 | 3,086.37 | 3,087.70 | 3,107.54 | 3,146.12 | 3,204.05 | 3,282.24 | 3,382.01 | 3,505.09 | 3,653.66 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 | 4,012,885,588.50 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/29/25 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 4.95 | 5.95 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,084.37 | 2,909.23 | 2,734.92 | 2,586.46 | 2,460.62 | 2,354.77 | 2,266.72 | 2,193.38 | 2,136.08 | 2,092.31 | Raw: 74,968.65 56,838.00 |
Raw: 87,062.76 48,330.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 70,613.61 | 73,149.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,169.98 | 2,169.98 |
| Equity Value | 68,443.63 | 70,979.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,012.89 | 4,012.89 |
| Fair Value | $17.06 | $17.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.98% | 83.98% |
| Buy Price | $2.73 | $2.83 |
| Current Price | $7.35 | $7.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.82% | -61.45% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,081.49 | 2,883.49 | 2,685.50 | 2,516.07 | 2,371.38 | 2,248.23 | 2,144.03 | 2,055.14 | 1,982.82 | 1,924.11 | Raw: 55,261.79 40,189.12 |
Raw: 64,176.74 32,609.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 53,727.05 | 56,501.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,169.98 | 2,169.98 |
| Equity Value | 51,557.07 | 54,331.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,012.89 | 4,012.89 |
| Fair Value | $12.85 | $13.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.98% | 83.98% |
| Buy Price | $2.06 | $2.17 |
| Current Price | $7.35 | $7.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.00% | -70.49% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,087.29 | 2,935.44 | 2,785.74 | 2,659.51 | 2,554.12 | 2,467.43 | 2,397.70 | 2,342.35 | 2,302.79 | 2,277.00 | Raw: 115,895.29 91,637.05 |
Raw: 134,591.78 81,694.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 105,659.15 | 107,504.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,169.98 | 2,169.98 |
| Equity Value | 103,489.17 | 105,334.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,012.89 | 4,012.89 |
| Fair Value | $25.79 | $26.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.98% | 83.98% |
| Buy Price | $4.13 | $4.21 |
| Current Price | $7.35 | $7.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.79% | -42.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 92,686.17 | 169,419.28 | 309,678.26 | 566,054.96 | 1,034,681.03 | 1,891,273.65 | 3,457,022.90 | 6,319,025.99 | 11,550,426.66 | 21,112,803.81 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% | 82.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.27 | 16.94 | 30.97 | 56.61 | 103.47 | 189.13 | 345.70 | 631.90 | 1,155.04 | 2,111.28 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 9.01 | 15.01 | 25.78 | 44.27 | 76.04 | 130.61 | 224.20 | 385.09 | 661.45 | 1,136.12 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $6.69 | -8.45% | $-20.85 | -411.63% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $16.34 | -0.40% | $3.50 | -78.56% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $13.58 | 3.37% | $16.54 | 21.77% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $15.36 | -2.02% | $7.27 | -52.67% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $12.22 | -6.91% | $7.20 | -41.06% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $11.22 | -7.63% | $5.39 | -51.92% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $14.38 | 2.52% | $10.64 | -25.98% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $12.00 | 11.05% | $12.79 | 6.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $11.24 | 14.88% | $9.26 | -17.63% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $10.42 | 15.40% | $-11.69 | -212.15% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $9.35 | 19.16% | $17.95 | 91.98% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $9.35 | 12.87% | $2.19 | -76.61% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $13.57 | -2.86% | $-0.46 | -103.40% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $13.00 | -13.49% | $-1.98 | -115.21% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $9.00 | -15.86% | $0.25 | -97.24% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $7.53 | -2.20% | $0.09 | -98.80% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $6.10 | 10.98% | $-1.05 | -117.29% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $2.60 | 8.59% | $3.74 | 43.93% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $1.31 | 16.66% | $0.68 | -47.80% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $1.31 | 118.57% | $3.29 | 151.51% |
| $9.84 - $12.09 | 36 |
| $12.09 - $14.33 | 144 |
| $14.33 - $16.58 | 224 |
| $16.58 - $18.82 | 216 |
| $18.82 - $21.07 | 146 |
| $21.07 - $23.31 | 75 |
| $23.31 - $25.56 | 53 |
| $25.56 - $27.80 | 35 |
| $27.80 - $30.05 | 28 |
| $30.05 - $32.29 | 14 |
| $32.29 - $34.54 | 10 |
| $34.54 - $36.79 | 3 |
| $36.79 - $39.03 | 5 |
| $39.03 - $41.28 | 1 |
| $41.28 - $43.52 | 2 |
| $43.52 - $45.77 | 2 |
| $45.77 - $48.01 | 1 |
| $48.01 - $50.26 | 1 |
| $50.26 - $52.50 | 2 |
| $52.50 - $54.75 | 2 |