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High Fashion International Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.45
5Y Range-3.36 – -1.93
5Y Selected-2.65
(-) Safety Margin79.60%
5Y Buy Price$-0.63
Upside (to Buy Price)-143.73%
10Y Range-3.33 – -1.97
10Y Selected-2.65
(-) Safety Margin79.60%
10Y Buy Price$-0.63
Upside (to Buy Price)-143.76%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6498
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4042
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3833
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5616
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3370
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6773
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0023
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0619
Safety Score0.2396

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.72%5.53%5.34%5.15%4.96%4.76%4.57%4.38%4.19%4.00%
Revenue3,527.673,722.693,921.384,123.184,327.494,533.654,740.984,948.735,156.135,362.38
EBITDA72.9076.9381.0485.2189.4393.6997.97102.27106.55110.81
D&A-79.23-83.61-88.07-92.60-97.19-101.82-106.47-111.14-115.80-120.43
EBIT-6.33-6.68-7.03-7.39-7.76-8.13-8.50-8.88-9.25-9.62
Pro forma Taxes1.421.501.581.661.741.831.911.992.082.16
NOPAT-4.91-5.18-5.45-5.73-6.02-6.31-6.59-6.88-7.17-7.46
Capital Expenditures-83.84-88.48-93.20-98.00-102.85-107.75-112.68-117.62-122.55-127.45
NWC Investment-11.58-11.83-12.06-12.25-12.40-12.51-12.58-12.61-12.59-12.52
(+) D&A79.2383.6188.0792.6097.19101.82106.47111.14115.80120.43
Free Cash Flow-21.11-21.89-22.64-23.38-24.08-24.75-25.38-25.97-26.51-26.99
Diluted Shares Outstanding305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25305,597,205.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.20%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.59
PV UFCF-20.98-21.29-20.71-20.10-19.47-18.82-18.15-17.46-16.76-16.05
Raw: -595.29
-466.73
Raw: -667.26
-384.78

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-569.27-574.57
(-) Net Debt159.92159.92
Equity Value-729.20-734.49
(/) Shares Out305.60305.60
Fair Value$-2.39$-2.40
(-) Safety Margin79.60%79.60%
Buy Price$-0.49$-0.49
Current Price$1.45$1.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-133.57%-133.81%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-20.96-21.20-20.44-19.64-18.85-18.05-17.24-16.44-15.63-14.83
Raw: -434.68
-328.40
Raw: -487.23
-258.36

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-429.48-441.64
(-) Net Debt159.92159.92
Equity Value-589.41-601.56
(/) Shares Out305.60305.60
Fair Value$-1.93$-1.97
(-) Safety Margin79.60%79.60%
Buy Price$-0.39$-0.40
Current Price$1.45$1.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-127.13%-127.69%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF-21.00-21.38-21.00-20.57-20.12-19.63-19.11-18.56-17.99-17.39
Raw: -938.79
-764.10
Raw: -1,052.29
-660.42

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-868.17-857.16
(-) Net Debt159.92159.92
Equity Value-1,028.09-1,017.08
(/) Shares Out305.60305.60
Fair Value$-3.36$-3.33
(-) Safety Margin79.60%79.60%
Buy Price$-0.69$-0.68
Current Price$1.45$1.45
Upside (to Buy Price)-147.33%-146.82%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.45
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH50.62%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue9,848.9114,834.0822,342.5733,651.5850,684.8276,339.68114,980.12173,178.97260,836.03392,861.98
Constant Implied Growth50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%50.62%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.981.482.233.375.077.6311.5017.3226.0839.29
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.941.281.812.563.625.137.2710.3014.5920.66

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.9210.08%$9.56397.79%
20182018-12-31$1.947.42%$7.83303.59%
20172017-12-31$1.902.59%$-10.86-671.55%
20162016-12-31$1.92-2.44%$-8.56-545.77%
20152015-12-31$2.42-1.68%$-1.22-150.41%
20142014-12-31$2.784.07%$-0.73-126.37%
20132013-12-31$3.091.33%$-0.71-123.07%
20122012-12-31$2.75-2.91%$7.04156.04%
20112011-12-31$2.80-2.43%$3.069.16%
20102010-12-31$2.96-0.01%$-7.71-360.44%
20092009-12-31$1.651.54%$12.12634.81%
20082008-12-31$1.505.11%$-4.25-383.30%
20072007-12-31$2.704.02%$-13.84-612.68%
20062006-12-31$1.464.49%$0.46-68.49%
20052005-12-31$1.644.79%$-0.40-124.21%
20042004-12-31$1.554.17%$1.9022.61%
20032003-12-31$1.167.84%$3.36189.49%
20022002-12-31$0.826.82%$-0.73-189.11%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-2.56
Median
$-2.41
10th Percentile
$-3.33
90th Percentile
$-1.96

Fair Value Distribution

$-7.52 - $-7.22
2
$-7.22 - $-6.93
0
$-6.93 - $-6.64
0
$-6.64 - $-6.34
0
$-6.34 - $-6.05
0
$-6.05 - $-5.76
0
$-5.76 - $-5.46
1
$-5.46 - $-5.17
5
$-5.17 - $-4.88
5
$-4.88 - $-4.58
5
$-4.58 - $-4.29
10
$-4.29 - $-4.00
16
$-4.00 - $-3.70
17
$-3.70 - $-3.41
25
$-3.41 - $-3.12
44
$-3.12 - $-2.82
98
$-2.82 - $-2.53
182
$-2.53 - $-2.24
256
$-2.24 - $-1.94
243
$-1.94 - $-1.65
90