Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56,100.00 |
| 5Y Range | 822,447.21 – 1,655,546.34 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,238,996.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $215,833.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 284.73% |
| 10Y Range | 933,892.38 – 1,835,839.27 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,384,865.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $241,243.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 330.02% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4744 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7604 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2695 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0153 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1585 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1681 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0599 |
| Safety Score | 0.1742 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.50% | 8.00% | 7.50% | 7.00% | 6.50% | 6.00% | 5.50% | 5.00% | 4.50% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,180,959.90 | 4,515,391.64 | 4,854,003.44 | 5,193,744.45 | 5,531,302.86 | 5,863,151.23 | 6,185,600.86 | 6,494,864.24 | 6,787,124.38 | 7,058,609.35 |
| EBITDA | 698,298.35 | 754,154.69 | 810,709.18 | 867,452.27 | 923,830.82 | 979,255.70 | 1,033,110.80 | 1,084,763.56 | 1,133,576.46 | 1,178,919.52 |
| D&A | -133,148.43 | -143,798.87 | -154,582.43 | -165,401.95 | -176,151.97 | -186,720.14 | -196,988.99 | -206,837.91 | -216,145.33 | -224,791.15 |
| EBIT | 565,149.91 | 610,355.82 | 656,126.75 | 702,050.32 | 747,678.86 | 792,535.56 | 836,121.81 | 877,925.65 | 917,431.12 | 954,128.37 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -128,834.35 | -139,139.71 | -149,573.88 | -160,042.84 | -170,444.55 | -180,670.30 | -190,606.44 | -200,136.25 | -209,142.11 | -217,507.80 |
| NOPAT | 436,315.56 | 471,216.10 | 506,552.87 | 542,007.47 | 577,234.31 | 611,865.26 | 645,515.37 | 677,789.40 | 708,289.01 | 736,620.57 |
| Capital Expenditures | -103,330.54 | -111,595.87 | -119,964.51 | -128,361.06 | -136,703.66 | -144,905.14 | -152,874.34 | -160,517.65 | -167,740.72 | -174,450.35 |
| NWC Investment | -64,780.57 | -66,152.18 | -66,979.02 | -67,202.38 | -66,770.65 | -65,641.18 | -63,782.06 | -61,173.76 | -57,810.44 | -53,701.01 |
| (+) D&A | 133,148.43 | 143,798.87 | 154,582.43 | 165,401.95 | 176,151.97 | 186,720.14 | 196,988.99 | 206,837.91 | 216,145.33 | 224,791.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 401,352.88 | 437,266.92 | 474,191.77 | 511,845.99 | 549,911.96 | 588,039.07 | 625,847.96 | 662,935.90 | 698,883.18 | 733,260.36 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 | 11,341,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 398,581.63 | 423,843.63 | 428,866.40 | 431,633.74 | 432,691.35 | 431,718.05 | 428,718.12 | 423,724.44 | 416,797.91 | 408,026.27 | Raw: 13,485,452.43 10,249,556.13 |
Raw: 17,981,692.17 9,665,291.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,365,172.89 | 13,889,893.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 175.82 | 175.82 |
| Equity Value | 12,364,997.06 | 13,889,717.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.34 | 11.34 |
| Fair Value | $1,090,219.50 | $1,224,653.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $167,566.74 | $188,229.29 |
| Current Price | $56,100.00 | $56,100.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 198.69% | 235.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 398,211.63 | 422,075.96 | 423,129.74 | 421,884.08 | 419,008.21 | 414,200.95 | 407,520.34 | 399,050.19 | 388,898.36 | 377,194.43 | Raw: 9,887,869.38 7,243,856.80 |
Raw: 13,184,624.26 6,520,975.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,328,166.41 | 10,592,149.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 175.82 | 175.82 |
| Equity Value | 9,327,990.59 | 10,591,973.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.34 | 11.34 |
| Fair Value | $822,447.21 | $933,892.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $126,410.14 | $143,539.26 |
| Current Price | $56,100.00 | $56,100.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 125.33% | 155.86% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 398,955.45 | 425,635.38 | 434,735.73 | 441,703.30 | 446,955.96 | 450,150.73 | 451,232.99 | 450,177.47 | 446,989.20 | 441,703.52 | Raw: 21,081,621.52 16,628,982.72 |
Raw: 28,110,530.99 16,433,566.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 18,776,968.54 | 20,821,805.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 175.82 | 175.82 |
| Equity Value | 18,776,792.71 | 20,821,630.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11.34 | 11.34 |
| Fair Value | $1,655,546.34 | $1,835,839.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.63% | 84.63% |
| Buy Price | $254,457.47 | $282,168.50 |
| Current Price | $56,100.00 | $56,100.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 353.58% | 402.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,192,547.01 | 10,192,152.26 | 16,774,998.65 | 27,609,534.52 | 45,441,815.66 | 74,791,503.98 | 123,097,393.57 | 202,602,802.44 | 333,458,689.60 | 548,830,995.11 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% | 64.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 619.25 | 1,019.22 | 1,677.50 | 2,760.95 | 4,544.18 | 7,479.15 | 12,309.74 | 20,260.28 | 33,345.87 | 54,883.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 584.65 | 859.49 | 1,319.92 | 2,027.00 | 3,112.85 | 4,780.40 | 7,341.25 | 11,273.93 | 17,313.34 | 26,588.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $80,500.00 | 11.81% | $-17,638.13 | -121.91% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $99,900.00 | 0.37% | $-27,833.50 | -127.86% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $119,000.00 | 15.29% | $45,981.80 | -61.36% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $112,500.00 | 21.92% | $254,477.47 | 126.20% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $115,500.00 | 23.13% | $238,876.89 | 106.82% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $138,000.00 | 17.54% | $244,680.10 | 77.30% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $186,000.00 | 5.34% | $129,456.69 | -30.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $122,500.00 | 7.06% | $182,222.82 | 48.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $126,500.00 | 6.39% | $210,137.75 | 66.12% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $102,500.00 | 6.20% | $288,213.54 | 181.18% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $130,500.00 | 5.53% | $325,356.34 | 149.32% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $130,500.00 | 3.87% | $195,348.94 | 49.69% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $130,500.00 | 6.75% | $48,502.60 | -62.83% |
| $637,936.89 - $1,020,560.09 | 216 |
| $1,020,560.09 - $1,403,183.29 | 493 |
| $1,403,183.29 - $1,785,806.49 | 194 |
| $1,785,806.49 - $2,168,429.69 | 61 |
| $2,168,429.69 - $2,551,052.89 | 19 |
| $2,551,052.89 - $2,933,676.09 | 5 |
| $2,933,676.09 - $3,316,299.29 | 7 |
| $3,316,299.29 - $3,698,922.49 | 1 |
| $3,698,922.49 - $4,081,545.69 | 2 |
| $4,081,545.69 - $4,464,168.89 | 0 |
| $4,464,168.89 - $4,846,792.09 | 0 |
| $4,846,792.09 - $5,229,415.29 | 1 |
| $5,229,415.29 - $5,612,038.49 | 0 |
| $5,612,038.49 - $5,994,661.69 | 0 |
| $5,994,661.69 - $6,377,284.89 | 0 |
| $6,377,284.89 - $6,759,908.09 | 0 |
| $6,759,908.09 - $7,142,531.29 | 0 |
| $7,142,531.29 - $7,525,154.49 | 0 |
| $7,525,154.49 - $7,907,777.68 | 0 |
| $7,907,777.68 - $8,290,400.88 | 1 |