Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $6.38 |
| 5Y Range | 1.48 – 2.64 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.79% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.11% |
| 10Y Range | 1.52 – 2.63 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.79% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.05% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0729 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4647 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8006 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5155 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1825 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7718 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1816 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0250 |
| Safety Score | 0.2442 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.69% | 1.94% | 2.20% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.97% | 3.23% | 3.49% | 3.74% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,688.31 | 3,760.01 | 3,842.76 | 3,937.22 | 4,044.11 | 4,164.30 | 4,298.76 | 4,448.62 | 4,615.13 | 4,799.73 |
| EBITDA | 135.44 | 138.08 | 141.12 | 144.58 | 148.51 | 152.92 | 157.86 | 163.36 | 169.48 | 176.26 |
| D&A | -20.24 | -20.63 | -21.08 | -21.60 | -22.19 | -22.85 | -23.59 | -24.41 | -25.32 | -26.33 |
| EBIT | 115.21 | 117.45 | 120.03 | 122.98 | 126.32 | 130.07 | 134.27 | 138.95 | 144.16 | 149.92 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -14.65 | -14.94 | -15.27 | -15.64 | -16.07 | -16.54 | -17.08 | -17.67 | -18.33 | -19.07 |
| NOPAT | 100.55 | 102.51 | 104.76 | 107.34 | 110.25 | 113.53 | 117.20 | 121.28 | 125.82 | 130.85 |
| Capital Expenditures | -19.84 | -20.23 | -20.67 | -21.18 | -21.76 | -22.40 | -23.13 | -23.93 | -24.83 | -25.82 |
| NWC Investment | -5.63 | -6.59 | -7.61 | -8.69 | -9.83 | -11.05 | -12.37 | -13.78 | -15.31 | -16.98 |
| (+) D&A | 20.24 | 20.63 | 21.08 | 21.60 | 22.19 | 22.85 | 23.59 | 24.41 | 25.32 | 26.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 95.32 | 96.32 | 97.57 | 99.08 | 100.86 | 102.92 | 105.29 | 107.98 | 111.00 | 114.39 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 | 1,465,971,429.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 94.72 | 93.62 | 89.04 | 84.84 | 81.09 | 77.69 | 74.62 | 71.85 | 69.35 | 67.10 | Raw: 2,411.10 1,878.32 |
Raw: 2,734.67 1,554.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,321.64 | 2,358.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | -403.91 | -403.91 |
| Equity Value | 2,725.55 | 2,762.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,465.97 | 1,465.97 |
| Fair Value | $1.86 | $1.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.79% | 78.79% |
| Buy Price | $0.39 | $0.40 |
| Current Price | $6.38 | $6.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.82% | -93.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 94.63 | 93.23 | 87.84 | 82.91 | 78.51 | 74.52 | 70.91 | 67.64 | 64.68 | 62.00 | Raw: 1,776.27 1,333.49 |
Raw: 2,014.64 1,053.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,770.62 | 1,829.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | -403.91 | -403.91 |
| Equity Value | 2,174.53 | 2,233.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,465.97 | 1,465.97 |
| Fair Value | $1.48 | $1.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.79% | 78.79% |
| Buy Price | $0.31 | $0.32 |
| Current Price | $6.38 | $6.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.07% | -94.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 94.81 | 94.02 | 90.27 | 86.83 | 83.78 | 81.03 | 78.57 | 76.36 | 74.41 | 72.67 | Raw: 3,731.90 3,017.92 |
Raw: 4,232.71 2,617.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,467.63 | 3,450.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -403.91 | -403.91 |
| Equity Value | 3,871.54 | 3,854.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,465.97 | 1,465.97 |
| Fair Value | $2.64 | $2.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.79% | 78.79% |
| Buy Price | $0.56 | $0.56 |
| Current Price | $6.38 | $6.38 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.22% | -91.26% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 14,347.37 | 28,266.53 | 55,689.41 | 109,716.70 | 216,158.77 | 425,866.03 | 839,021.58 | 1,653,001.56 | 3,256,667.33 | 6,416,135.54 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% | 97.02% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.43 | 2.83 | 5.57 | 10.97 | 21.62 | 42.59 | 83.90 | 165.30 | 325.67 | 641.61 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.37 | 2.42 | 4.48 | 8.28 | 15.32 | 28.34 | 52.42 | 96.96 | 179.35 | 331.76 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.05 | -0.71% | $2.38 | 15.94% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.69 | 2.72% | $0.65 | -75.66% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.07 | -14.16% | $-0.82 | -126.75% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.55 | -23.41% | $1.42 | -59.91% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $4.11 | -25.28% | $0.94 | -77.22% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.17 | -9.69% | $-1.67 | -152.60% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.30 | 8.11% | $5.37 | 62.66% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.41 | -1.74% | $6.00 | 75.88% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.26 | -10.72% | $2.95 | -9.45% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4.60 | -14.52% | $2.93 | -36.38% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.31 | -4.07% | $3.50 | 5.74% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.65 | 36.08% | $16.68 | 911.05% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $7.62 | 49.46% | $5.77 | -24.26% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.75 | 43.87% | $-2.57 | -193.50% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $1.19 | 25.98% | $8.70 | 631.10% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $1.38 | 1.27% | $0.57 | -58.36% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $0.84 | 7.34% | $1.02 | 21.36% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $0.47 | 17.84% | $8.51 | 1,711.02% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $0.59 | 27.24% | $26.65 | 4,417.36% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $0.86 | 6.12% | $-5.52 | -741.95% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.37 | -4.50% | $-2.19 | -259.58% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $1.37 | -24.72% | $0.14 | -89.61% |
| $1.21 - $1.46 | 66 |
| $1.46 - $1.72 | 241 |
| $1.72 - $1.98 | 267 |
| $1.98 - $2.23 | 171 |
| $2.23 - $2.49 | 107 |
| $2.49 - $2.75 | 62 |
| $2.75 - $3.00 | 36 |
| $3.00 - $3.26 | 25 |
| $3.26 - $3.52 | 10 |
| $3.52 - $3.77 | 4 |
| $3.77 - $4.03 | 3 |
| $4.03 - $4.29 | 3 |
| $4.29 - $4.54 | 0 |
| $4.54 - $4.80 | 1 |
| $4.80 - $5.06 | 0 |
| $5.06 - $5.31 | 1 |
| $5.31 - $5.57 | 2 |
| $5.57 - $5.83 | 0 |
| $5.83 - $6.08 | 0 |
| $6.08 - $6.34 | 0 |