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Tristate Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.78
5Y Range9.44 – 20.07
5Y Selected14.76
(-) Safety Margin70.80%
5Y Buy Price$4.83
Upside (to Buy Price)171.58%
10Y Range11.34 – 23.71
10Y Selected17.52
(-) Safety Margin70.80%
10Y Buy Price$5.74
Upside (to Buy Price)222.54%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9086
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7390
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8558
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5269
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9178
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7508
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1644
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2725
Safety Score0.3276

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.89%9.23%8.58%7.92%7.27%6.62%5.96%5.31%4.65%4.00%
Revenue4,597.365,021.805,452.575,884.646,312.466,730.107,131.357,509.897,859.408,173.78
EBITDA441.42482.17523.53565.02606.10646.20684.72721.07754.63784.81
D&A-255.95-279.58-303.56-327.61-351.43-374.68-397.02-418.09-437.55-455.05
EBIT185.47202.60219.97237.41254.67271.51287.70302.97317.07329.76
Pro forma Taxes-224.67-245.41-266.46-287.58-308.48-328.89-348.50-367.00-384.08-399.44
NOPAT-39.20-42.81-46.49-50.17-53.82-57.38-60.80-64.03-67.01-69.69
Capital Expenditures-92.70-101.26-109.95-118.66-127.29-135.71-143.80-151.43-158.48-164.82
NWC Investment-23.92-24.55-24.91-24.99-24.74-24.15-23.21-21.89-20.21-18.18
(+) D&A255.95279.58303.56327.61351.43374.68397.02418.09437.55455.05
Free Cash Flow100.13110.96122.21133.80145.59157.44169.22180.75191.86202.37
Diluted Shares Outstanding273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75273,644,579.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 2.37%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.59
PV UFCF99.52107.93111.80115.03117.71119.71120.99121.53121.32120.34
Raw: 3,756.74
2,945.41
Raw: 5,222.01
3,011.32

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,497.394,167.19
(-) Net Debt9.359.35
Equity Value3,488.044,157.84
(/) Shares Out273.64273.64
Fair Value$12.75$15.19
(-) Safety Margin70.80%70.80%
Buy Price$3.72$4.44
Current Price$1.78$1.78
Upside (to Buy Price)109.10%149.25%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 1.87%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF99.42107.48110.29112.41113.95114.81114.96114.40113.13111.18
Raw: 2,712.71
2,049.46
Raw: 3,770.76
1,999.52

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value2,593.023,111.57
(-) Net Debt9.359.35
Equity Value2,583.673,102.22
(/) Shares Out273.64273.64
Fair Value$9.44$11.34
(-) Safety Margin70.80%70.80%
Buy Price$2.76$3.31
Current Price$1.78$1.78
Upside (to Buy Price)54.89%85.97%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 2.87%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF99.61108.39113.34117.73121.62124.86127.40129.18130.18130.35
Raw: 6,070.29
4,940.76
Raw: 8,437.92
5,295.69

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,501.456,498.35
(-) Net Debt9.359.35
Equity Value5,492.106,489.00
(/) Shares Out273.64273.64
Fair Value$20.07$23.71
(-) Safety Margin70.80%70.80%
Buy Price$5.86$6.92
Current Price$1.78$1.78
Upside (to Buy Price)229.24%289.00%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.78
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH44.59%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue11,596.9716,768.3224,245.7035,057.4250,690.3273,294.29105,977.90153,235.86221,567.23320,369.12
Constant Implied Growth44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%44.59%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.161.682.423.515.077.3310.6015.3222.1632.04
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.111.441.962.673.624.936.709.1112.3916.85

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.6715.29%$2.4949.19%
20182018-12-31$1.7011.73%$-15.21-994.57%
20172017-12-31$1.697.26%$6.92309.35%
20162016-12-31$1.687.47%$1.33-20.82%
20152015-12-31$2.804.48%$8.89217.60%
20142014-12-31$2.834.77%$-1.25-144.17%
20132013-12-31$3.20-9.01%$3.6313.58%
20122012-12-31$3.92-16.88%$-1.58-140.35%
20112011-12-31$3.95-11.68%$9.74146.64%
20102010-12-31$2.66-4.67%$2.9711.56%
20092009-12-31$1.454.01%$9.07525.31%
20082008-12-31$1.005.65%$3.14213.52%
20072007-12-31$2.120.69%$3.5366.49%
20062006-12-31$2.900.88%$-0.31-110.86%
20052005-12-31$2.500.87%$10.19307.53%
20042004-12-31$1.223.17%$9.21654.89%
20032003-12-31$1.837.68%$1.19-34.72%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$17.21
Median
$15.43
10th Percentile
$11.45
90th Percentile
$24.31

Fair Value Distribution

$8.33 - $12.14
162
$12.14 - $15.95
380
$15.95 - $19.76
243
$19.76 - $23.57
98
$23.57 - $27.38
54
$27.38 - $31.19
20
$31.19 - $35.00
20
$35.00 - $38.81
6
$38.81 - $42.62
4
$42.62 - $46.43
3
$46.43 - $50.24
0
$50.24 - $54.05
2
$54.05 - $57.86
2
$57.86 - $61.67
1
$61.67 - $65.48
1
$65.48 - $69.29
1
$69.29 - $73.10
1
$73.10 - $76.90
0
$76.90 - $80.71
1
$80.71 - $84.52
1